NFL · resolved market
Giants vs. Bears: O/U 47.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6c4faa9a27088eca933658826cee284e3e7d95b8b7cde33e00b03dd846610641
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,189
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,695
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,189 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x857c…cb02backed Under | 52c | 13,524$7,032 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,491.46 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Over | 48c | 12,200$5,804 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,803.67 | 335 | 53.4%179 W · 156 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2150…8293backed Over | 47c | 7,000$3,290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,290 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Under | 53c | 5,242$2,778 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,463.74 | 446 | 52.9%236 W · 210 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Over | 45c | 4,154$1,860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,859.56 | 412 | 48.5%200 W · 212 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 45c | 3,930$1,787 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,786.59 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 55c | 2,926$1,602 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,323.58 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf73c…3b19backed Over | 44c | 2,290$1,008 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,007.77 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7189…b454backed Under | 55c | 1,852$1,019 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$833.54 | 57 | 64.9%37 W · 20 L | +7.7wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc1…ffeebacked Over | 48c | 833.33$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Over | 48c | 584.99$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.81 | 414 | 50.5%209 W · 205 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a45…60d6backed Under | 55c | 563.64$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc17f…50aabacked Over | 44c | 530.79$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.55 | 112 | 54.5%61 W · 51 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 57c | 519.26$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.28 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…49a8backed Over | 48c | 510.81$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.19 | 141 | 54.6%77 W · 64 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Over | 43c | 506$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.38 | 229 | 50.2%115 W · 114 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac97…a99ebacked Under | 52c | 499.98$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.99 | 392 | 42.6%167 W · 225 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 52c | 475.64$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.31 | 98 | 55.1%54 W · 44 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Over | 49c | 244$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.56 | 204 | 43.6%89 W · 115 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaabc…a190backed Over | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 40c | 227$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.8 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe727…5e8dbacked Over | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 175 | 48%84 W · 91 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Over | 48c | 210$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 594 | 53.7%319 W · 275 L | +24.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Over | 46c | 204$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.84 | 202 | 38.6%78 W · 124 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0298…93c4backed Under | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 283 | 37.8%107 W · 176 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 45c | 148$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.6 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Over | 47c | 145.76$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.51 | 611 | 48.6%297 W · 314 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71c8…3559backed Over | 45c | 128.4$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.25 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Over | 48c | 124.36$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.96 | 244 | 56.6%138 W · 106 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7555…ce17backed Over | 42c | 117.84$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 93 | 48.4%45 W · 48 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd58b…48e8backed Over | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -25%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Over | 41c | 99.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 315 | 40.6%128 W · 187 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 44c | 99.81$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.92 | 394 | 47.7%188 W · 206 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x042d…0b81backed Over | 50c | 80$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99af…fedcbacked Under | 54c | 62.59$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.59 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xced0…c680backed Over | 41c | 60.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 135 | 55.6%75 W · 60 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Under | 59c | 60.98$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 419 | 47.3%198 W · 221 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Under | 54c | 60.5$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.83 | 313 | 50.2%157 W · 156 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe78e…55f0backed Under | 53c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +3.6wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…a51bbacked Over | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 234 | 47.9%112 W · 122 L | -10.9wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Under | 59c | 43.3$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.75 | 259 | 56.8%147 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8821…ba33backed Over | 46c | 43.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -35%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed Under | 54c | 34.17$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.72 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Giants vs. Bears: O/U 47.5this page
- Giants vs. BearsBears won
- Giants vs. Bears: O/U 45.5Under won
- Giants vs. Bears: O/U 46.5Under won
- Giants vs. Bears: O/U 48.5Under won
- Spread: Bears (-3.5)Bears won
- Spread: Bears (-4.5)Giants won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.