Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-11.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x14d464fbd025fa0379005585947b908cb49453e0c776769d4af1c8a93f1f1d9d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nebraska Cornhuskersof Michigan Wolverines, Nebraska Cornhuskers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $231,855
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $234,959
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $231,855 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf1f4…544cbacked Michigan Wolverines | 52c | 200,276$104,141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104,140.98 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb45a…192cbacked Nebraska Cornhuskers | 48c | 193,330$92,798 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100,531.6 | 896 | 45.9%411 W · 485 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…2f0dbacked Nebraska Cornhuskers | 49c | 15,374$7,489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,885.16 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Michigan Wolverines | 51c | 8,022$4,091 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,091.37 | 906 | 45.4%411 W · 495 L | +9.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a7a…15a4backed Nebraska Cornhuskers | 50c | 5,000$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,500 | 351 | 51.9%182 W · 169 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Michigan Wolverines | 50c | 4,913$2,469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,468.94 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2123…8d70backed Nebraska Cornhuskers | 48c | 4,231$2,031 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,200.12 | 91 | 51.6%47 W · 44 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…e6e2backed Michigan Wolverines | 53c | 3,556$1,899 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,899.04 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Michigan Wolverines | 21c | 2,171$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465.48 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30a4…8441backed Michigan Wolverines | 52c | 2,000$1,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,040 | 422 | 46.2%195 W · 227 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x256b…cd5dbacked Nebraska Cornhuskers | 50c | 967.74$484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$483.87 | 133 | 42.1%56 W · 77 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x014c…f5b6backed Michigan Wolverines | 52c | 495.17$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.49 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…8974backed Michigan Wolverines | 53c | 400$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 34cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Nebraska Cornhuskers | 50c | 400$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202 | 1,260 | 43.3%545 W · 715 L | +34.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Nebraska Cornhuskers | 48c | 396.78$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.76 | 691 | 42.8%296 W · 395 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35f9…e09dbacked Michigan Wolverines | 34c | 385.71$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | -4.5wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -28%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6238…0523backed Nebraska Cornhuskers | 50c | 351.88$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.42 | 167 | 55.7%93 W · 74 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb6…25eabacked Nebraska Cornhuskers | 50c | 210$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 226 | 40.7%92 W · 134 L | -14.4wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7f02…12f5backed Nebraska Cornhuskers | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 76 | 46.1%35 W · 41 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4683…1218backed Michigan Wolverines | 52c | 84.62$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 89 | 53.9%48 W · 41 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ef0…7adebacked Nebraska Cornhuskers | 51c | 65$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.85 | 73 | 61.6%45 W · 28 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ffa…1e06backed Michigan Wolverines | 51c | 58.28$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -3.3wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Nebraska Cornhuskers | 49c | 56.73$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.21 | 668 | 31.4%210 W · 458 L | -43.1wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -23%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…e1f5backed Nebraska Cornhuskers | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 1,162 | 55.2%641 W · 521 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe44c…4c0dbacked Michigan Wolverines | 53c | 43.4$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed Michigan Wolverines | 51c | 35.3$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 213 | 42.3%90 W · 123 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc56b…fe0abacked Nebraska Cornhuskers | 49c | 34.73$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.71 | 95 | 43.2%41 W · 54 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa66d…0859backed Nebraska Cornhuskers | 49c | 29.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.29 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +3.9wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd25c…e39dbacked Nebraska Cornhuskers | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd85…6a32backed Michigan Wolverines | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 159 | 47.2%75 W · 84 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd730…1948backed Michigan Wolverines | 52c | 19.95$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 196 | 53.1%104 W · 92 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-11.5)this page
- Nebraska Cornhuskers vs. Michigan WolverinesMichigan Wolverines won
- Nebraska Cornhuskers vs. Michigan Wolverines: O/U 156.5Under won
- Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-12.5)Nebraska Cornhuskers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.