TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ncaa Basketball · resolved market

Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-11.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Nebraska Cornhuskersof Michigan Wolverines, Nebraska Cornhuskers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$231,855
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$234,959

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $231,855 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf1f4…544cbacked Michigan Wolverines52c200,276$104,141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104,140.985248.1%25 W · 27 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-10.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb45a…192cbacked Nebraska Cornhuskers48c193,330$92,798 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100,531.689645.9%411 W · 485 L-0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6a3…2f0dbacked Nebraska Cornhuskers49c15,374$7,489 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,885.161346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Michigan Wolverines51c8,022$4,091 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,091.3790645.4%411 W · 495 L+9.9wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a7a…15a4backed Nebraska Cornhuskers50c5,000$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,50035151.9%182 W · 169 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Michigan Wolverines50c4,913$2,469 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,468.9412,42249.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L+118.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2123…8d70backed Nebraska Cornhuskers48c4,231$2,031 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,200.129151.6%47 W · 44 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe584…e6e2backed Michigan Wolverines53c3,556$1,899 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,899.047047.1%33 W · 37 L-4.2wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-11.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Michigan Wolverines21c2,171$465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$465.485,55347.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L+26.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-3.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x30a4…8441backed Michigan Wolverines52c2,000$1,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,04042246.2%195 W · 227 L-9.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x256b…cd5dbacked Nebraska Cornhuskers50c967.74$484 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$483.8713342.1%56 W · 77 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-17.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x014c…f5b6backed Michigan Wolverines52c495.17$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.493652.8%19 W · 17 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c63…8974backed Michigan Wolverines53c400$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2121747.1%8 W · 9 L+2.3wins+0.13per pick34cpaid-0.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x12fe…38cfbacked Nebraska Cornhuskers50c400$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2021,26043.3%545 W · 715 L+34.8wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Nebraska Cornhuskers48c396.78$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.7669142.8%296 W · 395 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x35f9…e09dbacked Michigan Wolverines34c385.71$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1306235.5%22 W · 40 L-4.5wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-28%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6238…0523backed Nebraska Cornhuskers50c351.88$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.4216755.7%93 W · 74 L+8.7wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+7.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfbb6…25eabacked Nebraska Cornhuskers50c210$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10522640.7%92 W · 134 L-14.4wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-13.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7f02…12f5backed Nebraska Cornhuskers51c98.04$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.047646.1%35 W · 41 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-9.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4683…1218backed Michigan Wolverines52c84.62$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$448953.9%48 W · 41 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5ef0…7adebacked Nebraska Cornhuskers51c65$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.857361.6%45 W · 28 L+4.3wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7ffa…1e06backed Michigan Wolverines51c58.28$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303138.7%12 W · 19 L-3.3wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-22.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfc8f…3782backed Nebraska Cornhuskers49c56.73$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.2166831.4%210 W · 458 L-43.1wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-23%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb0fd…e1f5backed Nebraska Cornhuskers51c50$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.51,16255.2%641 W · 521 L+25.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe44c…4c0dbacked Michigan Wolverines53c43.4$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.27per pick52cpaid-51.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9b89…99e2backed Michigan Wolverines51c35.3$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1821342.3%90 W · 123 L-6.8wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-3.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc56b…fe0abacked Nebraska Cornhuskers49c34.73$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.719543.2%41 W · 54 L-3.9wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-15.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa66d…0859backed Nebraska Cornhuskers49c29.99$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.294060%24 W · 16 L+3.9wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+15.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd25c…e39dbacked Nebraska Cornhuskers51c29.41$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.41250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.18per pick32cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd85…6a32backed Michigan Wolverines51c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.215947.2%75 W · 84 L-5.2wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-8.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd730…1948backed Michigan Wolverines52c19.95$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3719653.1%104 W · 92 L+6.7wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.