TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Spread: Chiefs (-3.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Broncosof Chiefs, Broncos
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$227,547
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$236,655

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $227,547 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 130 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd6a3…9489backed Broncos49c37,340$18,288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,051.4373651.2%377 W · 359 L+25.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3b5a…bb9bbacked Chiefs52c37,060$19,271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,271.264143.9%18 W · 23 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-9.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Chiefs52c33,944$17,677 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,677.4847348.4%229 W · 244 L+1.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1433…56a0backed Broncos48c32,930$15,807 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,123.786451.6%33 W · 31 L+3.1wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xafba…e61bbacked Broncos48c30,000$14,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,599.9817454.6%95 W · 79 L+8.9wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+12.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Chiefs52c24,657$12,833 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,832.8753348.4%258 W · 275 L+1.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c6f…89b9backed Broncos48c22,481$10,846 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,635.215756.1%32 W · 25 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Broncos48c18,936$9,025 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,910.2675852.5%398 W · 360 L+21.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x04b9…cdaabacked Chiefs52c17,500$9,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,10011649.1%57 W · 59 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Broncos46c17,206$7,942 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,263.9286547.9%414 W · 451 L-6.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed Chiefs54c15,000$8,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,10013654.4%74 W · 62 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf93f…f94bbacked Chiefs48c11,555$5,493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,493.114438.9%56 W · 88 L+3.8wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7189…b454backed Chiefs52c10,000$5,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,2005764.9%37 W · 20 L+7.7wins+0.13per pick51cpaid+25.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf5e1…5ad0backed Broncos48c9,319$4,473 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,845.924056.7%136 W · 104 L+19.3wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+16.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Chiefs52c9,000$4,660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,66025744.4%114 W · 143 L+0.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Broncos63c8,987$5,685 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,302.0660049.3%296 W · 304 L+21.0wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+3.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d7a…b22fbacked Broncos49c6,887$3,364 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,522.884456.8%25 W · 19 L+4.1wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+17.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Chiefs51c5,803$2,959 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,959.371,19649.9%597 W · 599 L+1.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Chiefs33c5,575$1,849 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,849.3968446.1%315 W · 369 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-6.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Chiefs52c5,317$2,773 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,773.3647738.6%184 W · 293 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Chiefs52c5,000$2,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,60017648.9%86 W · 90 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick51cpaid+1.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1733…1e15backed Broncos48c4,746$2,278 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,467.8720443.6%89 W · 115 L-7.9wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Broncos47c4,000$1,880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,119.9951352.2%268 W · 245 L+16.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+12.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Broncos48c3,905$1,874 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,030.4821254.2%115 W · 97 L+5.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a61…1787backed Chiefs53c2,570$1,353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,353.268839.8%35 W · 53 L-4.9wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-15%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Broncos46c2,537$1,179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,358.1583447.1%393 W · 441 L+9.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x260c…7130backed Chiefs53c1,926$1,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0209135.2%32 W · 59 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Chiefs51c1,698$874 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$874.391,06551.3%546 W · 519 L+25.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x91a5…2619backed Chiefs52c1,604$834 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$834.220%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Chiefs52c1,352$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$699.5465048.3%314 W · 336 L-0.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8dcf…146ebacked Chiefs52c1,050$546 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5466540%26 W · 39 L-4.4wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-21.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2123…8d70backed Chiefs49c1,023$504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50411740.2%47 W · 70 L-10.0wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-17.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xac97…a99ebacked Broncos47c999.98$470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$529.9939242.6%167 W · 225 L-7.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe584…e6e2backed Chiefs52c961.05$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.754934.7%17 W · 32 L-8.3wins-0.17per pick52cpaid-32.2%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xea3e…b956backed Chiefs50c953.65$477 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$476.8324351.4%125 W · 118 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-11.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed Chiefs53c943.4$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50013641.2%56 W · 80 L-6.7wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-9.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Broncos48c875$420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45539754.4%216 W · 181 L+26.0wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+13.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8351…9bebbacked Broncos47c865$407 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$458.4516346%75 W · 88 L-0.7wins0.00per pick46cpaid-5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3013…e5b2backed Chiefs50c835$418 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$417.56050%30 W · 30 L+2.9wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+7.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xad45…c2eabacked Chiefs53c750.28$394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$393.982737%10 W · 17 L-4.6wins-0.17per pick54cpaid-33.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xc7bf…b567backed Chiefs48c741.46$352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352.4112039.2%47 W · 73 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1802…d00fbacked Chiefs54c740.74$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4006651.5%34 W · 32 L+7.5wins+0.11per pick40cpaid+9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Broncos52c652.27$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31256852.3%297 W · 271 L+26.3wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+6.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xaa50…dc15backed Broncos49c600$294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3065950.8%30 W · 29 L+7.9wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+40.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x383d…a9f2backed Chiefs51c600$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3066349.2%31 W · 32 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-8.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x504f…3ddcbacked Chiefs53c599.99$318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31811547%54 W · 61 L+0.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid+11.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e52…9434backed Broncos51c585.62$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$285.6211156.8%63 W · 48 L+7.7wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+13%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xed10…d2e5backed Chiefs54c500$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2703652.8%19 W · 17 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d4b…a250backed Chiefs51c491.42$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.6320949.8%104 W · 105 L-1.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7fa…44e5backed Chiefs45c488.89$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2203056.7%17 W · 13 L+2.3wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+16.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3832…35e1backed Chiefs52c480.77$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25016451.2%84 W · 80 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8f5…1caabacked Broncos47c435$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$229.3941450.5%209 W · 205 L+5.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xabf4…d167backed Chiefs52c423.08$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2201330.8%4 W · 9 L-3.2wins-0.25per pick56cpaid-47.3%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0x041f…fce8backed Chiefs52c423.08$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2203148.4%15 W · 16 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+5.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x79fb…b4aebacked Broncos48c420$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.48950.6%45 W · 44 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+4.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f85…a51bbacked Chiefs51c414.67$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.1723447.9%112 W · 122 L-10.9wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-8.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0b80…657fbacked Chiefs50c400$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20015746.5%73 W · 84 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6aa7…5455backed Chiefs52c384.62$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2007544%33 W · 42 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-8.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Broncos48c382$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.6477052.7%406 W · 364 L+24.8wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4a1e…86d3backed Broncos47c369.84$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.0213450%67 W · 67 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x03f7…c0ccbacked Broncos49c350$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.57456.8%42 W · 32 L+6.9wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+20.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf102…1348backed Chiefs53c301.99$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.0530442.4%129 W · 175 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick43cpaid+1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0d4a…2215backed Chiefs53c300$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.0117248.3%83 W · 89 L+5.6wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+41%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Broncos48c300$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15753253%282 W · 250 L+19.1wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x161c…3b03backed Chiefs53c298.61$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.35756.1%32 W · 25 L+3.0wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+9.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x70a1…978abacked Chiefs41c274.48$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1125164.7%33 W · 18 L+8.3wins+0.16per pick49cpaid+36.3%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x7c63…8974backed Chiefs53c250$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1333638.9%14 W · 22 L-2.6wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-30.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3613…79e1backed Chiefs52c250$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13019436.6%71 W · 123 L-14.8wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-29.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xef54…c997backed Chiefs53c240$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.210548.6%51 W · 54 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ec4…defabacked Chiefs52c230.77$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12020542%86 W · 119 L+7.2wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+35.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed Broncos47c214.99$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.9555345%249 W · 304 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc44d…935cbacked Chiefs52c208.65$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.55261.5%32 W · 20 L+3.8wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+7.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xce6d…28b5backed Chiefs52c207.69$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10820650.5%104 W · 102 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf36f…fb15backed Chiefs51c205$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.558650%43 W · 43 L-0.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x258e…d16cbacked Broncos49c204.08$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.088747.1%41 W · 46 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-7.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb98b…7e18backed Chiefs53c200$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10627835.3%98 W · 180 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8d4e…18debacked Chiefs53c200$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10611752.1%61 W · 56 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd58b…48e8backed Chiefs52c200$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1043540%14 W · 21 L-2.9wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-25%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x35e3…68b9backed Chiefs52c192.31$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1006839.7%27 W · 41 L-6.7wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-23.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6036…d2ccbacked Chiefs54c190$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.612151.2%62 W · 59 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa1d7…a70cbacked Chiefs53c188.68$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10016344.8%73 W · 90 L+9.0wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+10.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbc4d…f0b8backed Chiefs51c185$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.3513448.5%65 W · 69 L-9.4wins-0.07per pick56cpaid-12.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1ae4…1df2backed Broncos49c183.67$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.673250%16 W · 16 L-0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x927f…e7e7backed Chiefs52c160$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.720632%66 W · 140 L-10.8wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-20.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb0cd…b74cbacked Chiefs35c158$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.319124.6%47 W · 144 L-11.8wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-25.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdf08…9f3fbacked Broncos48c145.83$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.838056.3%45 W · 35 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Chiefs24c145.67$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.9664747.3%306 W · 341 L+42.5wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+56.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6941…efd5backed Chiefs53c141.51$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7513253%70 W · 62 L-0.5wins0.00per pick53cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe44b…6e0abacked Chiefs52c129.99$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.2916940.8%69 W · 100 L-7.9wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-12.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xaef8…c6b7backed Chiefs29c125$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.25450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-28.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf7d…ac4bbacked Chiefs23c110$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.2728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick39cpaid-31%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x742f…d673backed Chiefs61c108$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.7732347.4%153 W · 170 L+1.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-10.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58a0…2b5bbacked Broncos47c106.38$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.387034.3%24 W · 46 L-7.6wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-26.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0915…d08abacked Chiefs54c100$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$547745.5%35 W · 42 L-3.5wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-9.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x15e3…009fbacked Broncos47c100$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5317459.2%103 W · 71 L+6.7wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+8.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf35…b327backed Chiefs52c100$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5216946.7%79 W · 90 L-7.2wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-6.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x06eb…1a5fbacked Broncos49c100$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$513767.6%25 W · 12 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+3.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd420…df90backed Chiefs53c94$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.829654.2%52 W · 44 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4a3a…59d7backed Chiefs43c93.07$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+13.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b79…3c8cbacked Chiefs54c92.59$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5012843%55 W · 73 L-8.4wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-13%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.