NFL · resolved market
Spread: Chiefs (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xffe54f356bcf2e5d9a4563924edbc79f2ba1c2d8417fe99331819b370dabd79e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Broncosof Chiefs, Broncos
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $227,547
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $236,655
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $227,547 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 130 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Broncos | 49c | 37,340$18,288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,051.43 | 736 | 51.2%377 W · 359 L | +25.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5a…bb9bbacked Chiefs | 52c | 37,060$19,271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,271.26 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Chiefs | 52c | 33,944$17,677 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,677.48 | 473 | 48.4%229 W · 244 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1433…56a0backed Broncos | 48c | 32,930$15,807 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,123.78 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafba…e61bbacked Broncos | 48c | 30,000$14,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,599.98 | 174 | 54.6%95 W · 79 L | +8.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Chiefs | 52c | 24,657$12,833 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,832.87 | 533 | 48.4%258 W · 275 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c6f…89b9backed Broncos | 48c | 22,481$10,846 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,635.21 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Broncos | 48c | 18,936$9,025 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,910.26 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…cdaabacked Chiefs | 52c | 17,500$9,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,100 | 116 | 49.1%57 W · 59 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Broncos | 46c | 17,206$7,942 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,263.92 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Chiefs | 54c | 15,000$8,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,100 | 136 | 54.4%74 W · 62 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf93f…f94bbacked Chiefs | 48c | 11,555$5,493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,493.1 | 144 | 38.9%56 W · 88 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7189…b454backed Chiefs | 52c | 10,000$5,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,200 | 57 | 64.9%37 W · 20 L | +7.7wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e1…5ad0backed Broncos | 48c | 9,319$4,473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,845.9 | 240 | 56.7%136 W · 104 L | +19.3wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Chiefs | 52c | 9,000$4,660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,660 | 257 | 44.4%114 W · 143 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Broncos | 63c | 8,987$5,685 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,302.06 | 600 | 49.3%296 W · 304 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7a…b22fbacked Broncos | 49c | 6,887$3,364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,522.88 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | +4.1wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Chiefs | 51c | 5,803$2,959 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,959.37 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Chiefs | 33c | 5,575$1,849 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,849.39 | 684 | 46.1%315 W · 369 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Chiefs | 52c | 5,317$2,773 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,773.36 | 477 | 38.6%184 W · 293 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Chiefs | 52c | 5,000$2,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,600 | 176 | 48.9%86 W · 90 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Broncos | 48c | 4,746$2,278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,467.87 | 204 | 43.6%89 W · 115 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Broncos | 47c | 4,000$1,880 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,119.99 | 513 | 52.2%268 W · 245 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Broncos | 48c | 3,905$1,874 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,030.48 | 212 | 54.2%115 W · 97 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a61…1787backed Chiefs | 53c | 2,570$1,353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,353.26 | 88 | 39.8%35 W · 53 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -15%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Broncos | 46c | 2,537$1,179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,358.15 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x260c…7130backed Chiefs | 53c | 1,926$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,020 | 91 | 35.2%32 W · 59 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Chiefs | 51c | 1,698$874 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$874.39 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91a5…2619backed Chiefs | 52c | 1,604$834 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$834.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Chiefs | 52c | 1,352$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$699.54 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8dcf…146ebacked Chiefs | 52c | 1,050$546 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$546 | 65 | 40%26 W · 39 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2123…8d70backed Chiefs | 49c | 1,023$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504 | 117 | 40.2%47 W · 70 L | -10.0wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xac97…a99ebacked Broncos | 47c | 999.98$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$529.99 | 392 | 42.6%167 W · 225 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…e6e2backed Chiefs | 52c | 961.05$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.75 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | -8.3wins | -0.17per pick | 52cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xea3e…b956backed Chiefs | 50c | 953.65$477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$476.83 | 243 | 51.4%125 W · 118 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x182d…73e9backed Chiefs | 53c | 943.4$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 136 | 41.2%56 W · 80 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Broncos | 48c | 875$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455 | 397 | 54.4%216 W · 181 L | +26.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Broncos | 47c | 865$407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$458.45 | 163 | 46%75 W · 88 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3013…e5b2backed Chiefs | 50c | 835$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417.5 | 60 | 50%30 W · 30 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad45…c2eabacked Chiefs | 53c | 750.28$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.98 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -4.6wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc7bf…b567backed Chiefs | 48c | 741.46$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.41 | 120 | 39.2%47 W · 73 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1802…d00fbacked Chiefs | 54c | 740.74$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | +7.5wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Broncos | 52c | 652.27$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312 | 568 | 52.3%297 W · 271 L | +26.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa50…dc15backed Broncos | 49c | 600$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | +7.9wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x383d…a9f2backed Chiefs | 51c | 600$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x504f…3ddcbacked Chiefs | 53c | 599.99$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318 | 115 | 47%54 W · 61 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e52…9434backed Broncos | 51c | 585.62$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.62 | 111 | 56.8%63 W · 48 L | +7.7wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xed10…d2e5backed Chiefs | 54c | 500$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d4b…a250backed Chiefs | 51c | 491.42$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.63 | 209 | 49.8%104 W · 105 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fa…44e5backed Chiefs | 45c | 488.89$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3832…35e1backed Chiefs | 52c | 480.77$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 164 | 51.2%84 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Broncos | 47c | 435$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.39 | 414 | 50.5%209 W · 205 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabf4…d167backed Chiefs | 52c | 423.08$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -3.2wins | -0.25per pick | 56cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x041f…fce8backed Chiefs | 52c | 423.08$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79fb…b4aebacked Broncos | 48c | 420$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.4 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…a51bbacked Chiefs | 51c | 414.67$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.17 | 234 | 47.9%112 W · 122 L | -10.9wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b80…657fbacked Chiefs | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 157 | 46.5%73 W · 84 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa7…5455backed Chiefs | 52c | 384.62$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 75 | 44%33 W · 42 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Broncos | 48c | 382$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.64 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1e…86d3backed Broncos | 47c | 369.84$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.02 | 134 | 50%67 W · 67 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03f7…c0ccbacked Broncos | 49c | 350$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.5 | 74 | 56.8%42 W · 32 L | +6.9wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Chiefs | 53c | 301.99$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.05 | 304 | 42.4%129 W · 175 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d4a…2215backed Chiefs | 53c | 300$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.01 | 172 | 48.3%83 W · 89 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +41%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Broncos | 48c | 300$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157 | 532 | 53%282 W · 250 L | +19.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x161c…3b03backed Chiefs | 53c | 298.61$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.3 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70a1…978abacked Chiefs | 41c | 274.48$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 51 | 64.7%33 W · 18 L | +8.3wins | +0.16per pick | 49cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…8974backed Chiefs | 53c | 250$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3613…79e1backed Chiefs | 52c | 250$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 194 | 36.6%71 W · 123 L | -14.8wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xef54…c997backed Chiefs | 53c | 240$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.2 | 105 | 48.6%51 W · 54 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec4…defabacked Chiefs | 52c | 230.77$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 205 | 42%86 W · 119 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Broncos | 47c | 214.99$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.95 | 553 | 45%249 W · 304 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc44d…935cbacked Chiefs | 52c | 208.65$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.5 | 52 | 61.5%32 W · 20 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce6d…28b5backed Chiefs | 52c | 207.69$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 206 | 50.5%104 W · 102 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf36f…fb15backed Chiefs | 51c | 205$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.55 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x258e…d16cbacked Broncos | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 87 | 47.1%41 W · 46 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb98b…7e18backed Chiefs | 53c | 200$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 278 | 35.3%98 W · 180 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d4e…18debacked Chiefs | 53c | 200$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 117 | 52.1%61 W · 56 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd58b…48e8backed Chiefs | 52c | 200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -25%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35e3…68b9backed Chiefs | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 68 | 39.7%27 W · 41 L | -6.7wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6036…d2ccbacked Chiefs | 54c | 190$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.6 | 121 | 51.2%62 W · 59 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a70cbacked Chiefs | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 163 | 44.8%73 W · 90 L | +9.0wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4d…f0b8backed Chiefs | 51c | 185$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.35 | 134 | 48.5%65 W · 69 L | -9.4wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1ae4…1df2backed Broncos | 49c | 183.67$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.67 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x927f…e7e7backed Chiefs | 52c | 160$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.7 | 206 | 32%66 W · 140 L | -10.8wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cd…b74cbacked Chiefs | 35c | 158$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.3 | 191 | 24.6%47 W · 144 L | -11.8wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…9f3fbacked Broncos | 48c | 145.83$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.83 | 80 | 56.3%45 W · 35 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Chiefs | 24c | 145.67$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.96 | 647 | 47.3%306 W · 341 L | +42.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6941…efd5backed Chiefs | 53c | 141.51$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 132 | 53%70 W · 62 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe44b…6e0abacked Chiefs | 52c | 129.99$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.29 | 169 | 40.8%69 W · 100 L | -7.9wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaef8…c6b7backed Chiefs | 29c | 125$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf7d…ac4bbacked Chiefs | 23c | 110$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -31%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Chiefs | 61c | 108$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.77 | 323 | 47.4%153 W · 170 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58a0…2b5bbacked Broncos | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.38 | 70 | 34.3%24 W · 46 L | -7.6wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0915…d08abacked Chiefs | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 77 | 45.5%35 W · 42 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15e3…009fbacked Broncos | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 174 | 59.2%103 W · 71 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf35…b327backed Chiefs | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 169 | 46.7%79 W · 90 L | -7.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06eb…1a5fbacked Broncos | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 37 | 67.6%25 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd420…df90backed Chiefs | 53c | 94$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.82 | 96 | 54.2%52 W · 44 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3a…59d7backed Chiefs | 43c | 93.07$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b79…3c8cbacked Chiefs | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 128 | 43%55 W · 73 L | -8.4wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Chiefs (-3.5)this page
- Chiefs Parlay - Chiefs win, Mahomes 225+ passing yards, Kelce 40+ receiving yardsNo won
- Chiefs vs. BroncosBroncos won
- Chiefs vs. Broncos: O/U 43.5Under won
- Chiefs vs. Broncos: O/U 44.5Under won
- Chiefs vs. Broncos: O/U 45.5Under won
- Spread: Chiefs (-4.5)Broncos won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.