NFL · resolved market
Spread: Chiefs (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa27291674a760de04866fa710e7be66ed26c922fa5f7ae4942548a9da9d455a7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Broncosof Chiefs, Broncos
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,968
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,046
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,968 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xafba…e61bbacked Broncos | 52c | 12,122$6,303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,818.39 | 174 | 54.6%95 W · 79 L | +8.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd36…a8acbacked Chiefs | 48c | 9,600$4,608 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,608 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf93f…f94bbacked Chiefs | 48c | 9,400$4,512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,512 | 144 | 38.9%56 W · 88 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e1…5ad0backed Broncos | 52c | 7,777$4,044 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,732.96 | 240 | 56.7%136 W · 104 L | +19.3wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Broncos | 51c | 4,000$2,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,959.99 | 513 | 52.2%268 W · 245 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d1c…f13cbacked Broncos | 55c | 3,799$2,087 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,711.46 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -5.3wins | -0.18per pick | 61cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Chiefs | 45c | 3,599$1,619 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,619.46 | 736 | 51.2%377 W · 359 L | +25.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Chiefs | 49c | 3,425$1,677 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,677.16 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…b1b1backed Chiefs | 49c | 1,098$533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$533.38 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -5.5wins | -0.21per pick | 48cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x74d3…0332backed Broncos | 52c | 722.78$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.77 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Chiefs | 48c | 681$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.88 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Broncos | 58c | 400$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.67 | 532 | 53%282 W · 250 L | +19.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7bf…b567backed Chiefs | 38c | 395$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.2 | 120 | 39.2%47 W · 73 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Broncos | 52c | 384.62$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.62 | 112 | 55.4%62 W · 50 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Chiefs | 48c | 234.62$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.62 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f6…5ac8backed Chiefs | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f27…8ec7backed Chiefs | 48c | 169.1$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.17 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…cd84backed Chiefs | 48c | 150$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 80 | 47.5%38 W · 42 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77a0…8b0fbacked Chiefs | 48c | 122$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.56 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7865…4af9backed Chiefs | 49c | 102$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa072…9e34backed Broncos | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d3…e601backed Chiefs | 49c | 96.78$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.47 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Broncos | 78c | 80$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 600 | 49.3%296 W · 304 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cd…b74cbacked Chiefs | 22c | 80$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 191 | 24.6%47 W · 144 L | -11.8wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29c1…012cbacked Broncos | 53c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Broncos | 51c | 57$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.93 | 414 | 50.5%209 W · 205 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Chiefs | 48c | 54.5$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.16 | 363 | 41.9%152 W · 211 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Chiefs | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 245 | 47.8%117 W · 128 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb080…5eddbacked Chiefs | 48c | 48.08$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.08 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0488…aea5backed Broncos | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…d9f6backed Chiefs | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd47b…c715backed Broncos | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 71 | 35.2%25 W · 46 L | -8.3wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8e07…3702backed Broncos | 52c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Chiefs (-4.5)this page
- Chiefs Parlay - Chiefs win, Mahomes 225+ passing yards, Kelce 40+ receiving yardsNo won
- Chiefs vs. BroncosBroncos won
- Chiefs vs. Broncos: O/U 43.5Under won
- Chiefs vs. Broncos: O/U 44.5Under won
- Chiefs vs. Broncos: O/U 45.5Under won
- Spread: Chiefs (-3.5)Broncos won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.