Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Will a #1 seed win the NCAA Tournament?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9abeab6a20396f1d87f4bd55ff7875edf4ead8c7c75c0af531048a29185aeeff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $82,514
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $92,185
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $82,514 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa14b…b944backed No | 1c | 21,679$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.21 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c57…5b16backed No | 29c | 16,000$4,652 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,651.51 | 429 | 48.5%208 W · 221 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96c6…34a2backed Yes | 67c | 13,436$8,979 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,456.61 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…0a9abacked No | 34c | 6,532$2,236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,236.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf655…7ea4backed Yes | 76c | 4,955$3,780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,174.5 | 82 | 32.9%27 W · 55 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Yes | 65c | 3,050$1,983 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,067.5 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 31c | 2,427$759 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$758.92 | 79 | 36.7%29 W · 50 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -34%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed No | 15c | 1,743$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.77 | 136 | 9.6%13 W · 123 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed No | 16c | 1,552$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.06 | 98 | 33.7%33 W · 65 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed No | 6c | 1,150$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.2 | 79 | 12.7%10 W · 69 L | -13.1wins | -0.17per pick | 29cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x86e3…ad70backed No | 34c | 909.24$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.27per pick | 36cpaid | -85.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…8974backed Yes | 69c | 825.02$573 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.01 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 34cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8583…a5dbbacked No | 6c | 709.5$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.27 | 46 | 8.7%4 W · 42 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb5f…0848backed No | 15c | 595$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.95 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4baf…b22bbacked No | 24c | 475$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -2.4wins | -0.11per pick | 15cpaid | -93.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7cf7…0433backed Yes | 69c | 466.67$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf59b…1cacbacked No | 34c | 442.37$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd0…bc3dbacked No | 24c | 425$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.3 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ada…2f28backed Yes | 65c | 424.99$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.25 | 205 | 48.8%100 W · 105 L | +13.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x00e2…d56abacked Yes | 66c | 401.8$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.61 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17f1…8f26backed No | 32c | 400$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.5 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b3e…662cbacked No | 34c | 366.7$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.68 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 36cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5902…59fabacked Yes | 66c | 257.13$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +3.0wins | +0.14per pick | 38cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 32c | 256.72$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.19 | 139 | 36.7%51 W · 88 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked No | 35c | 250$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.5 | 399 | 3.3%13 W · 386 L | -21.0wins | -0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -89.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 5c | 233.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 98 | 39.8%39 W · 59 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed No | 14c | 231.9$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.85 | 69 | 34.8%24 W · 45 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 33c | 220$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.5 | 69 | 23.2%16 W · 53 L | -7.2wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 75c | 200.2$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.05 | 306 | 49%150 W · 156 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e14…3003backed No | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9f7…00f9backed No | 23c | 200$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe87a…6d01backed No | 15c | 198.8$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.82 | 45 | 22.2%10 W · 35 L | -4.9wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x22eb…ad17backed Yes | 66c | 136.36$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec92…98f5backed Yes | 76c | 122.75$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.46 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | -4.5wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc412…592dbacked No | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked No | 33c | 76.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.52 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5b8…e965backed No | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 22c | 54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 290 | 12.1%35 W · 255 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbae4…c085backed No | 34c | 52.29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked No | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 348 | 42.8%149 W · 199 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…22e8backed Yes | 78c | 42$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.23 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 27c | 40.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | -5.4wins | -0.13per pick | 45cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3505…e6c9backed Yes | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b7a…4817backed Yes | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f7…ac2cbacked Yes | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +67.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x31dc…f663backed Yes | 68c | 22.03$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.