TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

China Taiwan · resolved market

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What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
China Taiwanevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$657,076
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$727,542

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $657,076 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 587 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in China Taiwan is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa3d3…d424backed No28c45,108$12,821 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,820.65333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-55.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x778a…b405backed No33c33,000$10,760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,759.9810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xecaa…77a9backed No17c24,970$4,356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,355.781580%12 W · 3 L+3.1wins+0.21per pick59cpaid+21.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc658…b784backed Yes65c21,566$14,049 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,517.54100%4 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4e56…dee1backed No33c20,545$6,853 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,85310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x42a6…1b64backed Yes67c17,783$11,927 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,856.43450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-29.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdadd…e141backed No0c17,637$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.9110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1085…2d69backed Yes75c15,427$11,546 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,880.25560%3 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick68cpaid-17%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe4a…ac42backed Yes65c15,023$9,780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,242.941100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb810…b043backed Yes74c12,649$9,349 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,300.33250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-32.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba01…1ebabacked Yes67c12,496$8,432 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,063.6560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick49cpaid-17%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5bee…946cbacked No44c12,295$5,381 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,380.8410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd44c…ab91backed Yes68c12,139$8,295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,844.431100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+46.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xefa8…c82bbacked Yes70c11,124$7,765 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,359.341100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+43.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf33f…085cbacked No1c10,000$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5983…64a8backed Yes76c9,956$7,537 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,419.4250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-33.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked No15c8,942$1,311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,310.890%0 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb9cc…387abacked Yes65c8,808$5,737 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,071.43425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-61.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d1f…afa5backed No24c8,457$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked No4c8,326$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295.7350%0 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No30c8,318$2,496 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,495.993444.1%15 W · 19 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-16.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f4f…c44bbacked No29c8,252$2,427 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,427.12714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.23per pick37cpaid-79.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7b2a…e72ebacked No1c7,748$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7aa…d0f0backed Yes73c7,355$5,333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,021.65250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-31%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x49fd…0198backed No1c6,194$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.081315.4%2 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick15cpaid-58.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x897b…cb5cbacked Yes64c6,016$3,864 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,152.061100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+55.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x63bf…e319backed No41c5,753$2,361 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,360.5910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4170…d0dcbacked No2c5,584$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd7d…b0a9backed No3c5,319$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.6410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9cd2…18cdbacked Yes56c5,009$2,806 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,202.481100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x574e…3ef1backed No7c5,000$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$350250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick21cpaid+47.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5230…e16cbacked No45c4,852$2,168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,167.9210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6063…03f6backed No3c4,792$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x96b5…f5e7backed No36c4,503$1,610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,610.48714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.16per pick30cpaid-79.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8037…ca8fbacked Yes70c4,284$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,283.551100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd03…c6e0backed No1c4,163$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.3310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa880…d095backed No28c4,009$1,108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,108.4310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6de…6b04backed No1c4,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa7c3…74aebacked Yes79c3,924$3,086 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$837.911100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+27.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb481…bb2cbacked Yes71c3,850$2,719 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,130.64425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-64.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2027…6d60backed Yes67c3,790$2,526 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,263.235100%5 W · 0 L+2.2wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+125.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x08f0…4ca4backed Yes74c3,717$2,753 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$964.421100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2227…b572backed Yes69c3,607$2,491 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,115.33450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-29.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No35c3,596$1,258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,258.193928.2%11 W · 28 L-2.4wins-0.06per pick34cpaid-51.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6718…80d1backed Yes69c3,466$2,384 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,082.35333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-51.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5754…e515backed No29c3,315$963 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$962.6840%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5b73…4766backed Yes58c3,267$1,891 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,376.411100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe8bf…d806backed No20c3,226$634 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$634.0820%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x889e…09e0backed Yes53c3,092$1,647 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,444.93475%3 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.37per pick38cpaid+50.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfce6…9f5dbacked Yes72c3,032$2,193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$838.441100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0fda…5b87backed No30c3,010$917 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$916.6110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a05…2ddabacked No9c2,887$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.4910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8795…7544backed No40c2,743$1,088 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,087.8510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd2b…8e50backed No1c2,728$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.2810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe167…c8cebacked No23c2,718$635 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$634.5210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4826…d5c3backed Yes55c2,710$1,491 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,219.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0242…565dbacked No27c2,550$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e12…ac99backed No2c2,513$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x78bf…cecfbacked Yes72c2,502$1,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$701.91250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-30.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd398…46d7backed Yes65c2,255$1,471 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$784.283100%3 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+81.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1f65…1592backed Yes70c2,198$1,541 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$657.32250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-28.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f92…dd4cbacked No23c2,169$497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$497.11475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick60cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x865c…ea31backed No28c2,169$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed No32c2,161$696 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$696.481118.2%2 W · 9 L-2.4wins-0.22per pick40cpaid-74.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x4115…298abacked No33c2,154$703 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$703.3910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c47…9b02backed Yes74c2,146$1,583 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$562.911100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ed2…0ddabacked No42c2,115$880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$879.9710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c11…ab7bbacked No47c2,112$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5936…99c9backed Yes58c2,100$1,222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$877.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+71.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa8e6…4f7fbacked Yes77c2,032$1,572 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$460.712100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+34.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa5a8…b2d2backed Yes64c2,022$1,303 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$718.722100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+59.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1936…8ae0backed No26c2,015$530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x444e…01d0backed Yes75c2,000$1,492 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$507.66366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.15per pick52cpaid-9.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe5ee…0ababacked Yes75c2,000$1,494 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$505.471100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x752e…81c4backed Yes80c1,840$1,469 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$371.041100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe659…4f92backed No33c1,829$595 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$594.9810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x18f7…97f5backed No30c1,820$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$539.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb38…7935backed No4c1,800$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefbf…f2f8backed Yes73c1,778$1,298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$479.741100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4258…feecbacked No2c1,747$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.9310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6be…fcfebacked No44c1,729$760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$759.99742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-35.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a83…8004backed Yes58c1,669$965 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$704.061100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+73%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c63…8974backed Yes65c1,531$998 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$533.841100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4336…6db4backed No18c1,445$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7528…18f9backed Yes79c1,347$1,066 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$280.621100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb3d1…c2acbacked Yes63c1,341$851 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$490.461100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+57.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x45a4…c862backed Yes75c1,337$1,008 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$329.232100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+34.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa8ac…091ebacked Yes78c1,225$959 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$266.441100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+27.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4fec…b9debacked No16c1,224$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb6ba…eea1backed No46c1,220$561 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$561.110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2326…ab0ebacked Yes77c1,168$896 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$272.071100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+30.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5858…7b42backed Yes67c1,147$769 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$378.661100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8152…bfdabacked No34c1,139$387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$387.17933.3%3 W · 6 L-2.0wins-0.22per pick55cpaid-50.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf9ad…ce31backed No47c1,131$530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6750…c697backed No36c1,128$403 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402.710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4c4…8441backed Yes66c1,111$738 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$372.591100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+50.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x63d4…a2f1backed Yes70c1,085$760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$325.62100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+45%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x346c…a160backed No51c1,069$542 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$542.24250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x47d6…bf94backed No36c1,064$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$380.1810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc89d…f5adbacked Yes66c1,058$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$358.391100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.