NBA · resolved market
Spread: Spurs (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x64acb749ec14d940eb0f8bf1a3bb01b54d9a8baa5353e8faf1bc9a256dd5c9b4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bullsof Spurs, Bulls
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $67,973
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $68,988
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $67,973 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4335…fc2fbacked Spurs | 53c | 31,501$16,695 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,695.47 | 173 | 54.3%94 W · 79 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Bulls | 47c | 27,716$12,989 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,726.72 | 1,046 | 51.1%534 W · 512 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c67…377ebacked Bulls | 50c | 16,900$8,472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,428 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Spurs | 53c | 5,506$2,918 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,917.63 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Spurs | 54c | 5,000$2,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,700 | 801 | 46.4%372 W · 429 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Spurs | 49c | 4,805$2,356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,356.16 | 698 | 52%363 W · 335 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c3d…5d4cbacked Bulls | 47c | 4,468$2,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,368.09 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…fde0backed Bulls | 46c | 2,000$920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,080 | 517 | 53.8%278 W · 239 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Spurs | 50c | 1,652$823 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$823.22 | 857 | 42.6%365 W · 492 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Spurs | 49c | 1,092$534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$533.85 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Bulls | 47c | 1,000$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa727…8289backed Spurs | 49c | 979.59$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 72 | 61.1%44 W · 28 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea0d…821cbacked Bulls | 52c | 769.23$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.23 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa43…3215backed Bulls | 52c | 727.92$379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.4 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd589…27c2backed Spurs | 53c | 672$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.16 | 176 | 37.5%66 W · 110 L | -16.3wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcada…f2a3backed Spurs | 47c | 425.51$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.99 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf332…3c89backed Spurs | 54c | 370.37$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 656 | 49.2%323 W · 333 L | +9.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf3e…1726backed Bulls | 56c | 357.14$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.14 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4103…9b9ebacked Spurs | 53c | 351.17$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.12 | 417 | 42%175 W · 242 L | -16.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Spurs | 49c | 306.4$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.14 | 762 | 49.5%377 W · 385 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Spurs | 52c | 300$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Bulls | 47c | 291.02$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.24 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Bulls | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.77 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3854…862dbacked Spurs | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Bulls | 47c | 169.66$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.92 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x310a…d559backed Bulls | 55c | 164.25$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.91 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Bulls | 47c | 162$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.86 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Spurs | 45c | 154.25$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.41 | 471 | 44.2%208 W · 263 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Spurs | 47c | 137.95$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.84 | 710 | 52.1%370 W · 340 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…bc4abacked Spurs | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 378 | 50.3%190 W · 188 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…8974backed Bulls | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dcb…9540backed Spurs | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +23%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x412c…43b4backed Spurs | 47c | 93.62$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef41…2473backed Spurs | 53c | 61.19$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.43 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Spurs | 51c | 61.18$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 1,451 | 49.7%721 W · 730 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Bulls | 51c | 60.87$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.93 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Bulls | 50c | 55$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 354 | 47.7%169 W · 185 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…f102backed Bulls | 54c | 51.85$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.85 | 905 | 60.8%550 W · 355 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b57…1f13backed Bulls | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc609…f29abacked Bulls | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…4a2cbacked Bulls | 47c | 26.6$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 319 | 47.6%152 W · 167 L | -18.8wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5c…b3f2backed Spurs | 67c | 26.16$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.51 | 327 | 43.4%142 W · 185 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Spurs (-4.5)this page
- Spread: Spurs (-3.5)Spurs won
- Spurs vs. BullsSpurs won
- Spurs vs. Bulls: 1H MoneylineBulls won
- Spurs vs. Bulls: O/U 232.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Bulls: O/U 233.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Bulls: O/U 234.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Bulls: O/U 235.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Bulls: O/U 236.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Bulls: O/U 237.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.