NBA · resolved market
Spread: Spurs (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd4e045de93e88beed298e0ed5b7c0d2c408d81682c987dacaad771ae9c627cbc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Spursof Spurs, Bulls
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,988
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,029
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,988 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Spurs | 53c | 15,000$7,893 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,107.51 | 382 | 48.7%186 W · 196 L | +13.9wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad4…3c1abacked Bulls | 49c | 11,111$5,444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,444.35 | 77 | 48.1%37 W · 40 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Bulls | 40c | 4,830$1,940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,940.41 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e82…752cbacked Spurs | 54c | 3,516$1,914 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,601.94 | 1,204 | 55.3%666 W · 538 L | +52.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Bulls | 43c | 2,822$1,213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,213.47 | 701 | 47.8%335 W · 366 L | +15.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Bulls | 46c | 1,756$814 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$814.35 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa43…3215backed Spurs | 54c | 1,078$581 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$497.35 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Bulls | 48c | 945.99$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455.04 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f13…e0fdbacked Bulls | 47c | 911.33$428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$428.32 | 724 | 50.7%367 W · 357 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e58…f73bbacked Spurs | 56c | 806$451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.64 | 57 | 40.4%23 W · 34 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Spurs | 56c | 800$448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Bulls | 46c | 556$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.68 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Bulls | 49c | 540.61$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.9 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Spurs | 52c | 409.7$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.16 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe80…e0a6backed Spurs | 53c | 301.89$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.89 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Spurs | 51c | 295$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.55 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8191…8a35backed Spurs | 52c | 255.17$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.48 | 95 | 49.5%47 W · 48 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Bulls | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 261 | 50.2%131 W · 130 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8bd…463dbacked Spurs | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 382 | 61.5%235 W · 147 L | +30.8wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Spurs | 49c | 193.41$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.64 | 471 | 44.2%208 W · 263 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e08…d84cbacked Spurs | 53c | 169.51$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.67 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4731…cba8backed Spurs | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 120 | 50.8%61 W · 59 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…cd84backed Bulls | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 123 | 42.3%52 W · 71 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x48b5…7d0cbacked Spurs | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.25per pick | 64cpaid | +45%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9038…f74cbacked Spurs | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1d…6519backed Spurs | 58c | 67.52$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.36 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x939d…3b3cbacked Bulls | 43c | 59.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.79 | 60 | 50%30 W · 30 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Bulls | 46c | 55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 354 | 47.7%169 W · 185 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x426f…e76bbacked Bulls | 50c | 51$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 176 | 44.9%79 W · 97 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Spurs | 52c | 48.47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.47 | 603 | 46.4%280 W · 323 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a3…0c69backed Spurs | 52c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 158 | 38.6%61 W · 97 L | -11.1wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b8…68a5backed Spurs | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 65 | 56.9%37 W · 28 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2a…845bbacked Spurs | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 85 | 57.6%49 W · 36 L | +5.1wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1c…2a3ebacked Spurs | 51c | 36.39$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.83 | 304 | 54.9%167 W · 137 L | +16.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Spurs | 51c | 36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.64 | 361 | 48.5%175 W · 186 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8af…a0a5backed Spurs | 58c | 31.03$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.03 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf546…de65backed Spurs | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd49f…33a4backed Spurs | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 59cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Spurs | 57c | 28.28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd10a…91e9backed Spurs | 57c | 28.07$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.07 | 78 | 62.8%49 W · 29 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b82…b217backed Bulls | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7d1…4cb7backed Spurs | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54dc…58a2backed Spurs | 53c | 19.47$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Spurs (-3.5)this page
- Spread: Spurs (-4.5)Bulls won
- Spurs vs. BullsSpurs won
- Spurs vs. Bulls: 1H MoneylineBulls won
- Spurs vs. Bulls: O/U 232.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Bulls: O/U 233.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Bulls: O/U 234.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Bulls: O/U 235.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Bulls: O/U 236.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Bulls: O/U 237.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.