NBA · resolved market
Spread: Knicks (-5.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x00466c7244f7aa889f6841eca05a30db70ce2e60a6d07fd501e017e4582a0020
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Knicksof Knicks, Heat
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,283
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,979
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,283 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x081e…f76ebacked Knicks | 56c | 10,239$5,734 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,505.06 | 259 | 45.6%118 W · 141 L | -11.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Knicks | 52c | 6,849$3,576 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,273.96 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5c…0182backed Heat | 46c | 3,385$1,543 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,543.48 | 477 | 51.8%247 W · 230 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…fde0backed Heat | 48c | 3,000$1,440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,440 | 517 | 53.8%278 W · 239 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Knicks | 55c | 3,000$1,650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,350 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcc…4324backed Heat | 47c | 3,000$1,410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,409.91 | 528 | 44.7%236 W · 292 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Heat | 46c | 2,812$1,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,299.99 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Heat | 44c | 2,485$1,099 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,098.51 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4335…fc2fbacked Heat | 45c | 2,192$986 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$986.41 | 173 | 54.3%94 W · 79 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Heat | 45c | 1,542$697 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$697.09 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…49a8backed Heat | 45c | 1,363$613 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$613.19 | 356 | 51.1%182 W · 174 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Heat | 46c | 1,083$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498 | 1,212 | 48.3%586 W · 626 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0da5…5adfbacked Heat | 47c | 1,064$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 125 | 50.4%63 W · 62 L | -7.6wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc2e2…9b0cbacked Heat | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Heat | 44c | 987.14$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.34 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6bd…270cbacked Knicks | 55c | 980.01$542 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$438.18 | 124 | 52.4%65 W · 59 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa925…e1c8backed Knicks | 56c | 535.71$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.71 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | -5.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb160…597abacked Heat | 48c | 530$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd413…e5ffbacked Knicks | 53c | 528.9$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45d6…36cbbacked Heat | 49c | 510.2$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 245 | 33.9%83 W · 162 L | -19.1wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc4…541dbacked Heat | 50c | 446$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Heat | 44c | 400$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Knicks | 52c | 280.39$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.59 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x007b…adc6backed Heat | 51c | 248.63$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.8 | 147 | 27.9%41 W · 106 L | -7.7wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3dd…45d3backed Heat | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fe…6a33backed Heat | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 80 | 45%36 W · 44 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa35b…0eccbacked Heat | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 245 | 56.3%138 W · 107 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d7f…f524backed Heat | 48c | 206.25$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1400…9f95backed Heat | 48c | 205.42$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd58b…48e8backed Knicks | 56c | 200$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 63 | 58.7%37 W · 26 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Heat | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 368 | 54.1%199 W · 169 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Knicks | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 261 | 50.2%131 W · 130 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc1…ffeebacked Heat | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 369 | 43.4%160 W · 209 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Knicks | 52c | 189.73$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.56 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe25d…801fbacked Knicks | 53c | 188.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.63 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Knicks | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46bd…37e8backed Knicks | 50c | 167$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.5 | 168 | 37.5%63 W · 105 L | -20.6wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -25%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Knicks | 34c | 151.52$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…3598backed Heat | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x553b…f71cbacked Heat | 47c | 150$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.5 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa58…53dcbacked Knicks | 55c | 138.56$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cf9…b7d4backed Heat | 51c | 117.65$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Knicks | 51c | 108.72$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.27 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3433…1487backed Knicks | 50c | 108$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x443d…017fbacked Heat | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 235 | 50.2%118 W · 117 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf139…1d3bbacked Heat | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 93 | 55.9%52 W · 41 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe45d…f77ebacked Heat | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 253 | 36.8%93 W · 160 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Knicks | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 1,197 | 47.5%569 W · 628 L | -32.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8044…358ebacked Heat | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 549 | 51.9%285 W · 264 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…8974backed Knicks | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcca…da80backed Heat | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9472…110ebacked Knicks | 50c | 96$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f9b…d771backed Heat | 47c | 95.77$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.01 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe556…36a1backed Knicks | 50c | 94$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3576…8117backed Knicks | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 204 | 44.6%91 W · 113 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee6…493abacked Knicks | 50c | 85$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e0…4d8fbacked Knicks | 51c | 69.02$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.02 | 659 | 50.8%335 W · 324 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1cdcbacked Knicks | 50c | 63$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Knicks | 52c | 62.44$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.97 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0a1…6daebacked Heat | 48c | 62.44$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.97 | 224 | 42.9%96 W · 128 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4562…4f54backed Knicks | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f1…f0e8backed Knicks | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 81 | 55.6%45 W · 36 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4627…7c23backed Knicks | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 134 | 49.3%66 W · 68 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Heat | 44c | 55$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 354 | 47.7%169 W · 185 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd774…82cdbacked Heat | 47c | 53.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 355 | 51.3%182 W · 173 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56e4…92bbbacked Heat | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a3…0c69backed Heat | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 158 | 38.6%61 W · 97 L | -11.1wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb13f…75cebacked Knicks | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +83.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc4…48aebacked Knicks | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x528e…a0bdbacked Knicks | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 69 | 47.8%33 W · 36 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x426f…e76bbacked Heat | 48c | 35.42$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 176 | 44.9%79 W · 97 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x895d…4970backed Knicks | 53c | 30.19$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.19 | 126 | 46.8%59 W · 67 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcda0…a51abacked Heat | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 296 | 52.7%156 W · 140 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b2…4ab2backed Knicks | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 127 | 43.3%55 W · 72 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x218e…e49dbacked Heat | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 482 | 55%265 W · 217 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d61…ce94backed Knicks | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc95c…cef3backed Heat | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 112 | 58.9%66 W · 46 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Knicks (-5.5)this page
- Heat vs. KnicksKnicks won
- Heat vs. Knicks: 1H MoneylineKnicks won
- Heat vs. Knicks: 1H O/U 123.5Over won
- Heat vs. Knicks: O/U 234.5Over won
- Heat vs. Knicks: O/U 235.5Over won
- Heat vs. Knicks: O/U 236.5Over won
- Heat vs. Knicks: O/U 237.5Over won
- Heat vs. Knicks: O/U 238.5Over won
- Heat vs. Knicks: O/U 239.5Over won
- Heat vs. Knicks: O/U 240.5Over won
- Spread: Knicks (-3.5)Knicks won
- Spread: Knicks (-4.5)Knicks won
- Spread: Knicks (-6.5)Knicks won
- Spread: Knicks (-9.5)Heat won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.