NBA · resolved market

Heat vs. Knicks: O/U 239.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xad2afddd9be657497d1d80279247e5ff3dfdde75614a1a82ea4ba6b07c0a7fae

Rebuilt 13 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Overof Over, Under
Resolved: Nov 14, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $11,608
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $11,935

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,608 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xcb43…3c74backed Over	52c	2,753$1,432 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,321.44	477	48.8%233 W · 244 L	+1.8wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8198…e96ebacked Under	48c	2,500$1,200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,200	164	46.3%76 W · 88 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce97…4ffbbacked Over	52c	1,899$988 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$911.57	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-1.1wins	-0.16per pick	45cpaid	-35.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xba45…87f3backed Under	48c	1,300$624 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$624	10	70%7 W · 3 L	+1.5wins	+0.15per pick	55cpaid	+28.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x357b…0b65backed Under	49c	1,020$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	271	58.3%158 W · 113 L	-3.0wins	-0.01per pick	59cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f7a…db40backed Over	53c	1,000$530 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$470	180	47.8%86 W · 94 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6bd…270cbacked Over	53c	943.4$500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$443.4	124	52.4%65 W · 59 L	+2.6wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed Under	50c	600$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	402	43.8%176 W · 226 L	-1.3wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xafa2…f786backed Under	48c	599.1$288 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$287.57	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.3wins	-0.43per pick	43cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Under	49c	422.89$205 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$205.18	2,796	50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L	+27.9wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Under	48c	253$121 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$121.44	6,213	50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L	+53.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfde8…c52fbacked Over	53c	113.22$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$53.22	185	36.2%67 W · 118 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	36cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x50bb…9aa6backed Over	53c	100$53 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$47	119	51.3%61 W · 58 L	+3.9wins	+0.03per pick	48cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under	47c	52.13$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.5	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5631…bd3abacked Over	53c	47.17$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.17	56	62.5%35 W · 21 L	+6.4wins	+0.11per pick	51cpaid	+26.8%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x04b3…ad8dbacked Under	49c	40.82$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	118	48.3%57 W · 61 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe5dd…490bbacked Under	51c	39.22$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	126	54.8%69 W · 57 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	56cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x210c…6567backed Under	50c	26.95$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.5	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.7wins	-0.23per pick	57cpaid	-51%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Heat vs. Knicks: O/U 239.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event