NBA · resolved market

Spread: Knicks (-3.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x226b6834e2e30bccd7284cf74e24cd52b4094ed33e915246b4abebb553334b31

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Knicksof Knicks, Heat
Resolved: Nov 15, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $5,023
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $6,358

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,023 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x9376…c075backed Knicks	61c	819.67$500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$319.67	141	56%79 W · 62 L	+6.0wins	+0.04per pick	52cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Heat	39c	654.07$257 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$256.8	2,265	43.4%982 W · 1,283 L	-26.7wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Heat	42c	425.42$178 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$178.47	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6884…6ccfbacked Knicks	58c	420.69$244 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$176.69	390	51.5%201 W · 189 L	-5.1wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-3.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Heat	40c	315.41$126 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$125.81	6,213	50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L	+53.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Heat	37c	231.97$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85.83	2,796	50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L	+27.9wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7865…4af9backed Heat	41c	200$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82	26	46.2%12 W · 14 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Knicks	59c	140$83 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$57.4	1,197	47.5%569 W · 628 L	-32.0wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Heat	41c	135$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.35	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x230a…59b1backed Knicks	63c	111.11$70 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$41.11	46	56.5%26 W · 20 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	58cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51dd…2f92backed Knicks	63c	95.24$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35.24	199	44.7%89 W · 110 L	-15.0wins	-0.08per pick	52cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0xf9b2…3886backed Knicks	61c	93.44$57 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36.44	44	52.3%23 W · 21 L	-1.0wins	-0.02per pick	54cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4cc7…908dbacked Knicks	61c	81.97$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.97	166	50%83 W · 83 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a3c…93d7backed Knicks	58c	80$46 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.6	403	46.2%186 W · 217 L	+9.0wins	+0.02per pick	44cpaid	+8.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Knicks	59c	63.21$37 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.92	2,361	48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L	-41.8wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed Heat	39c	51$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.89	1,109	41.8%464 W · 645 L	-20.3wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e07…c0d4backed Knicks	63c	31.59$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.74	134	56.7%76 W · 58 L	-2.9wins	-0.02per pick	59cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x95a7…ecdfbacked Knicks	63c	22.06$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.16	19	73.7%14 W · 5 L	+3.6wins	+0.19per pick	55cpaid	+31.3%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Knicks (-3.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event