TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Heat vs. Knicks: O/U 240.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$40,106
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$40,101

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,106 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd0b4…fed6backed Under51c33,749$17,212 inLost-$17,212.0420055%110 W · 90 L+7.0wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Over49c12,612$6,180 inWon+$6,432.241,21248.3%586 W · 626 L-20.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over49c8,075$3,956 inWon+$4,119.069,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ae8…c2a8backed Over49c4,092$2,005 inWon+$2,086.8424053.8%129 W · 111 L+12.5wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Over49c3,600$1,764 inWon+$1,8362,09147.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L-56.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x74d3…0332backed Under50c2,630$1,315 inLost-$1,315.234645.4%157 W · 189 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec13…862bbacked Over49c2,500$1,225 inWon+$1,27528850.3%145 W · 143 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over49c2,000$980 inWon+$1,0201,82052.1%948 W · 872 L+48.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Under51c1,000$510 inLost-$5102,79650.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L+27.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf6a3…4ebebacked Under50c1,000$500 inLost-$5004254.8%23 W · 19 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+10.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed Over49c905$443 inWon+$461.5592753.5%496 W · 431 L+20.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3de6…405cbacked Over50c758$379 inWon+$37943453.2%231 W · 203 L+6.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Over49c612$300 inWon+$312.122,43549.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L+30.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe558…20f7backed Over50c600$300 inWon+$3002100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd7fd…3a1cbacked Over50c500$250 inWon+$2503100%3 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfe17…98e9backed Over48c420.65$202 inWon+$218.741952.6%10 W · 9 L+2.1wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+3.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3f57…7298backed Over50c400$200 inWon+$2001100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x526b…a0e9backed Over50c324$162 inWon+$1622100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+94.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9a3e…addfbacked Over50c320$160 inWon+$1602100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+98%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Over49c276.61$135 inWon+$141.176,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4b51…8d2fbacked Over50c220$110 inWon+$1101100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfcfa…d05cbacked Over50c194.4$97 inWon+$97.2366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+30.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed Under52c192.31$100 inLost-$1001,29044%567 W · 723 L+35.0wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7181…1b0abacked Under52c192.31$100 inLost-$10024955%137 W · 112 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+9.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x53bf…70d9backed Over50c190$95 inWon+$951100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b20…99e9backed Over49c183.67$90 inWon+$93.6766046.8%309 W · 351 L-16.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f8e…5ad4backed Under52c121.15$63 inLost-$631127.3%3 W · 8 L-2.4wins-0.22per pick49cpaid-51%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x8351…9bebbacked Over50c100$50 inWon+$5017758.2%103 W · 74 L+11.0wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+11.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4662…1d65backed Over50c22$11 inWon+$115343.4%23 W · 30 L-3.9wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-6.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.