TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Knicks (-4.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Knicksof Knicks, Heat
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$9,622
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$9,798

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,622 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xee61…debfbacked Knicks58c3,429$1,981 inWon+$1,447.239,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2bcc…4324backed Heat42c3,171$1,344 inLost-$1,344.0652844.7%236 W · 292 L+1.8wins0.00per pick44cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Knicks58c2,302$1,345 inWon+$957.12,09147.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L-56.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Heat42c1,463$614 inLost-$614.51,21248.3%586 W · 626 L-20.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8717…49a8backed Heat42c1,462$614 inLost-$614.2435651.1%182 W · 174 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Knicks56c880$493 inWon+$387.22,36148.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Heat43c571.91$246 inLost-$246.186,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Heat45c501$225 inLost-$225.452,26543.4%982 W · 1,283 L-26.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Knicks55c499$274 inWon+$224.552,73646.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L-67.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Heat42c262$110 inLost-$110.0485742.6%365 W · 492 L-15.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-13.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Heat42c198$83 inLost-$83.162,79650.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L+27.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac71…d8cabacked Knicks57c175.44$100 inWon+$75.441060%6 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Knicks56c120$67 inWon+$52.81,19747.5%569 W · 628 L-32.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4fce…b35bbacked Knicks57c70$40 inWon+$30.1250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a3c…93d7backed Knicks40c63$25 inWon+$37.840346.2%186 W · 217 L+9.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+8.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3dde…2c06backed Knicks57c52.63$30 inWon+$22.6315448.7%75 W · 79 L-4.4wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-8.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa1e5…5a2cbacked Heat49c40$20 inLost-$19.624653.3%131 W · 115 L+10.5wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+14.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Knicks56c37.36$21 inWon+$16.442,29851.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L+65.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b47…5286backed Heat44c26$11 inLost-$11.4410945%49 W · 60 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xebc0…fa41backed Knicks53c18.92$10 inWon+$8.8952460.1%315 W · 209 L+35.6wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+32.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.