NBA · resolved market
Heat vs. Knicks: O/U 235.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8a89d31b9a8805524f92e2687b08636be8818a8c63bea7ba1a1363a73a003fbb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,573
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,503
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,573 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2630…e941backed Over | 53c | 1,832$979 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$852.72 | 428 | 45.1%193 W · 235 L | -15.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 46c | 983.07$457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$457.02 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 44c | 711.12$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.51 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Under | 47c | 564$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.08 | 1,212 | 48.3%586 W · 626 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Under | 44c | 450$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 1,451 | 49.7%721 W · 730 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 47c | 400$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15d5…ef7bbacked Under | 46c | 400$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184 | 1,198 | 38.8%465 W · 733 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Under | 43c | 308.44$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.57 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5dd…b094backed Over | 60c | 280$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112 | 339 | 50.1%170 W · 169 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Under | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 617 | 40.7%251 W · 366 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa43…3215backed Over | 60c | 166.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.33 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd83…0aa7backed Over | 58c | 121.55$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.05 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Over | 60c | 116.67$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.67 | 603 | 46.4%280 W · 323 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe78e…55f0backed Under | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 346 | 45.7%158 W · 188 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bba…b20fbacked Over | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6cc…18cebacked Over | 53c | 98.11$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.11 | 83 | 44.6%37 W · 46 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Under | 42c | 55$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 354 | 47.7%169 W · 185 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57bc…d82dbacked Over | 60c | 34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 56 | 57.1%32 W · 24 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa26…c10abacked Over | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88c4…a936backed Over | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Heat vs. Knicks: O/U 235.5this page
- Heat vs. KnicksKnicks won
- Heat vs. Knicks: 1H MoneylineKnicks won
- Heat vs. Knicks: 1H O/U 123.5Over won
- Heat vs. Knicks: O/U 234.5Over won
- Heat vs. Knicks: O/U 236.5Over won
- Heat vs. Knicks: O/U 237.5Over won
- Heat vs. Knicks: O/U 238.5Over won
- Heat vs. Knicks: O/U 239.5Over won
- Heat vs. Knicks: O/U 240.5Over won
- Spread: Knicks (-3.5)Knicks won
- Spread: Knicks (-4.5)Knicks won
- Spread: Knicks (-5.5)Knicks won
- Spread: Knicks (-6.5)Knicks won
- Spread: Knicks (-9.5)Heat won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.