NBA · resolved market

Spread: Knicks (-6.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa5ddc1b15e18c3c394492f4a65741b5173521598ef388e48c7088151db920d40

Rebuilt 1 hour ago.

Winning outcome: Knicksof Knicks, Heat
Resolved: Nov 15, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $11,150
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $11,150

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,150 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Knicks	51c	5,932$3,008 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,924.11	1,820	52.1%948 W · 872 L	+48.5wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x74d3…0332backed Heat	49c	4,008$1,966 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,965.73	346	45.4%157 W · 189 L	+8.3wins	+0.02per pick	43cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Heat	49c	1,375$674 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$673.51	2,298	51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L	+65.4wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4439…585fbacked Knicks	51c	1,020$520 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$499.61	8	25%2 W · 6 L	-2.0wins	-0.25per pick	50cpaid	-50%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8dcf…146ebacked Knicks	51c	980.78$500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$480.78	181	40.3%73 W · 108 L	-9.4wins	-0.05per pick	45cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xaaef…a883backed Knicks	50c	804.74$402 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$402.37	8	75%6 W · 2 L	+2.1wins	+0.27per pick	48cpaid	+56.5%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xabfc…0fc2backed Heat	50c	627.42$314 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$313.71	62	51.6%32 W · 30 L	+1.1wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+7.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed Heat	51c	588.24$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	402	43.8%176 W · 226 L	-1.3wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfe17…98e9backed Heat	49c	404.16$198 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$198.04	19	52.6%10 W · 9 L	+2.1wins	+0.11per pick	42cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6c72…9b30backed Heat	50c	391.48$196 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$195.74	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	-1.9wins	-0.14per pick	30cpaid	-50.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3e84…768ebacked Heat	50c	256$128 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$128	136	44.9%61 W · 75 L	-7.7wins	-0.06per pick	50cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Knicks	50c	200$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$100	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x75f3…0e78backed Heat	50c	200$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	631	42%265 W · 366 L	-9.1wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7ae…5fdebacked Heat	50c	200$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	18	44.4%8 W · 10 L	-1.4wins	-0.08per pick	52cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x08f2…28dfbacked Knicks	52c	192$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$92.16	6	50%3 W · 3 L	+0.8wins	+0.14per pick	36cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Knicks	50c	52.68$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.34	3,120	44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L	-7.6wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed Heat	50c	42$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	1,109	41.8%464 W · 645 L	-20.3wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf9e4…24c2backed Heat	50c	40$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	285	47.7%136 W · 149 L	-10.2wins	-0.04per pick	51cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7181…1b0abacked Heat	50c	30$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	249	55%137 W · 112 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	+9.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd10a…91e9backed Heat	50c	30$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	78	62.8%49 W · 29 L	+5.0wins	+0.06per pick	56cpaid	+14.2%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe50b…c2a8backed Heat	50c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	658	55.6%366 W · 292 L	+27.0wins	+0.04per pick	52cpaid	+11.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Knicks (-6.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event