NBA · resolved market

Heat vs. Knicks: O/U 238.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcd97b7c839539f02d6ec2f4fda2d327c4346e9650832b6416aa345749f96d3b5

Rebuilt 9 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Overof Over, Under
Resolved: Nov 14, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $18,580
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $19,713

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,580 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xe6ee…b3aabacked Over	53c	5,800$3,074 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,726	362	48.9%177 W · 185 L	-6.6wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under	47c	2,988$1,404 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,404.37	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdbad…9c95backed Over	52c	1,202$625 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$577	63	52.4%33 W · 30 L	+1.0wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	-5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfdf…8e02backed Under	48c	1,200$576 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$576	339	45.1%153 W · 186 L	-5.1wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3de6…405cbacked Over	55c	1,015$558 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$456.55	434	53.2%231 W · 203 L	+6.7wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Under	51c	980$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$499.8	1,451	49.7%721 W · 730 L	+18.0wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Under	45c	932.99$424 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$424.04	2,796	50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L	+27.9wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2630…e941backed Under	50c	900$450 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$450	428	45.1%193 W · 235 L	-15.7wins	-0.04per pick	49cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Over	50c	600$300 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$300	2,435	49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L	+30.3wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9def…d1a5backed Over	53c	500$265 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$235	96	49%47 W · 49 L	+4.5wins	+0.05per pick	44cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x53ab…65aabacked Under	45c	499.99$225 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$224.99	77	41.6%32 W · 45 L	-3.8wins	-0.05per pick	46cpaid	-8.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb113…8bc6backed Under	45c	444$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$199.8	226	56.6%128 W · 98 L	+13.0wins	+0.06per pick	51cpaid	+16.6%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Under	50c	416.85$208 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$207.85	2,298	51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L	+65.4wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe962…663abacked Over	51c	400$204 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$196	843	42.9%362 W · 481 L	-39.1wins	-0.05per pick	48cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xaacf…5f84backed Over	56c	269$151 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$118.36	1,151	53.7%618 W · 533 L	-41.7wins	-0.04per pick	57cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Under	50c	231.88$115 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$114.94	2,265	43.4%982 W · 1,283 L	-26.7wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x64db…325bbacked Under	47c	212.77$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	1,259	48.7%613 W · 646 L	+1.5wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7f9b…d771backed Under	50c	200$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	34	23.5%8 W · 26 L	-1.5wins	-0.04per pick	28cpaid	-24.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x553b…f71cbacked Under	49c	150$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.5	21	61.9%13 W · 8 L	+2.8wins	+0.13per pick	49cpaid	+27.3%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x91d1…8437backed Over	54c	138.44$75 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$63.68	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.06per pick	56cpaid	-15.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under	45c	90.91$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.91	2,736	46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L	-67.4wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x855d…349fbacked Over	55c	90.91$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40.91	32	37.5%12 W · 20 L	-1.1wins	-0.03per pick	41cpaid	-29.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x10a8…8629backed Over	55c	90.91$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40.91	10	60%6 W · 4 L	+0.8wins	+0.08per pick	52cpaid	+8.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Under	47c	83.85$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.41	2,361	48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L	-41.8wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x110d…cd01backed Under	49c	81.63$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	345	56.2%194 W · 151 L	+17.1wins	+0.05per pick	51cpaid	+10.3%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Over	51c	81.63$42 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40	3,342	43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L	+81.2wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc1b3…501cbacked Over	54c	59.7$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.46	84	45.2%38 W · 46 L	-2.0wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x45d1…7017backed Under	44c	55$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.2	354	47.7%169 W · 185 L	+7.0wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7f2a…845bbacked Under	51c	39.22$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	85	57.6%49 W · 36 L	+5.1wins	+0.06per pick	52cpaid	+13.8%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc5a3…8248backed Under	51c	33.33$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	80	52.5%42 W · 38 L	+2.1wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x33ea…dcf4backed Over	55c	30$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.5	64	56.3%36 W · 28 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	58cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f91…7c76backed Over	51c	30$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.7	98	52%51 W · 47 L	+6.0wins	+0.06per pick	46cpaid	+16.8%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5f1c…2be4backed Over	52c	28.85$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.85	29	37.9%11 W · 18 L	-3.7wins	-0.13per pick	51cpaid	-25%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Heat vs. Knicks: O/U 238.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event