NBA · resolved market
Heat vs. Knicks: O/U 234.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x530b06088c5268edd4cad02b31f1ba8ec8ac63a11978f5a1a735ec102700abce
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $601,526
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $603,288
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $601,526 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2635…5408backed Under | 41c | 590,562$241,143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241,142.69 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbad…9c95backed Over | 59c | 200,000$118,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82,000 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3151…0977backed Over | 59c | 170,000$100,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69,700 | 192 | 49.5%95 W · 97 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Over | 60c | 121,867$72,665 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49,201.87 | 701 | 47.8%335 W · 366 L | +15.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd36…a8acbacked Over | 61c | 30,940$18,873 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,066.6 | 181 | 51.9%94 W · 87 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Over | 59c | 20,000$11,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,200 | 668 | 53.4%357 W · 311 L | +22.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Over | 59c | 15,555$9,177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,377.55 | 159 | 52.2%83 W · 76 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdcfe…44b5backed Over | 59c | 13,655$8,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,574.94 | 147 | 53.1%78 W · 69 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 61c | 7,227$4,408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,818.89 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed Over | 60c | 2,200$1,320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$880 | 477 | 48.8%233 W · 244 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ef…8cd6backed Over | 59c | 2,000$1,180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$820 | 433 | 48.5%210 W · 223 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1013…87d5backed Over | 61c | 1,641$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$640.98 | 88 | 63.6%56 W · 32 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Over | 61c | 1,600$976 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$624 | 180 | 47.8%86 W · 94 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x504f…3ddcbacked Over | 61c | 1,548$944 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$603.54 | 173 | 56.6%98 W · 75 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b3…501cbacked Over | 60c | 1,537$917 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$619.63 | 84 | 45.2%38 W · 46 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 40c | 1,049$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.47 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a23…fd22backed Over | 61c | 1,000$610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.35per pick | 55cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 43c | 744.65$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.54 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x775e…6541backed Over | 60c | 700$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 43c | 686.14$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.38 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44e6…9d9ebacked Over | 61c | 600$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 56c | 554$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.76 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6bd…270cbacked Over | 54c | 325.89$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.91 | 124 | 52.4%65 W · 59 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21e2…bd6dbacked Over | 61c | 322.59$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.81 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Under | 41c | 312.92$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.3 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…d1a5backed Over | 59c | 263.41$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 96 | 49%47 W · 49 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Over | 59c | 250$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.5 | 179 | 41.9%75 W · 104 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 46c | 250$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x646c…3210backed Under | 41c | 200$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | -7.2wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd58b…48e8backed Over | 59c | 200$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 63 | 58.7%37 W · 26 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Over | 61c | 200$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 107 | 35.5%38 W · 69 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5536…8637backed Under | 44c | 191$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.04 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85ee…10c4backed Under | 43c | 185$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.55 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…03f4backed Under | 45c | 181$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.45 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.7wins | -0.38per pick | 52cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa405…fa4bbacked Over | 56c | 177$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.88 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7685…9624backed Over | 55c | 173$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.85 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87e9…8223backed Over | 57c | 172$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.96 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 62cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb6a…f116backed Over | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +3.3wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe0…8348backed Under | 43c | 166$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.38 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6e…401cbacked Under | 43c | 159$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.37 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.30per pick | 46cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e2d…5efcbacked Under | 43c | 159$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.37 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.8wins | +0.31per pick | 46cpaid | +66.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x74cb…e673backed Over | 57c | 155$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.65 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a53…4d81backed Over | 57c | 153$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.79 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3fa…50e8backed Over | 57c | 150$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.5 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.7wins | +0.24per pick | 49cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ef…9e7abacked Under | 39c | 140.74$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.34 | 252 | 48.4%122 W · 130 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8044…358ebacked Over | 55c | 110$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 549 | 51.9%285 W · 264 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc319…a062backed Over | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ec8…eaefbacked Under | 40c | 99.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x681d…4cbfbacked Over | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.97 | 385 | 45.7%176 W · 209 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…16c5backed Under | 39c | 76$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -4.8wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6149…9434backed Over | 56c | 75.89$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.39 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +62.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Under | 40c | 75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,113 | 41.6%463 W · 650 L | -10.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50bb…9aa6backed Over | 60c | 70$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 119 | 51.3%61 W · 58 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Under | 23c | 69.6$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 1,132 | 17%192 W · 940 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Over | 61c | 67$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.13 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa516…235cbacked Over | 60c | 66.67$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1c…2a3ebacked Under | 41c | 63.41$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 304 | 54.9%167 W · 137 L | +16.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Under | 37c | 54.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.35 | 354 | 47.7%169 W · 185 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe398…ee2ebacked Over | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | -5.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -16%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc54f…dce8backed Under | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 634 | 27.3%173 W · 461 L | -19.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa83…537bbacked Over | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 146 | 47.9%70 W · 76 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b88…748cbacked Over | 56c | 45.23$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.9 | 74 | 54.1%40 W · 34 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27ec…ad73backed Over | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 194 | 51.5%100 W · 94 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Under | 34c | 38.06$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 2,169 | 40.8%885 W · 1,284 L | -8.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Under | 40c | 38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 353 | 52.4%185 W · 168 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6f7…f858backed Over | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 73 | 61.6%45 W · 28 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf597…f4aebacked Over | 65c | 31.94$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.33 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -3.7wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 597 | 43.6%260 W · 337 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a18…7a20backed Over | 56c | 21.43$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.43 | 69 | 52.2%36 W · 33 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7b…7701backed Over | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b8…8e45backed Over | 65c | 18.46$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Heat vs. Knicks: O/U 234.5this page
- Heat vs. KnicksKnicks won
- Heat vs. Knicks: 1H MoneylineKnicks won
- Heat vs. Knicks: 1H O/U 123.5Over won
- Heat vs. Knicks: O/U 235.5Over won
- Heat vs. Knicks: O/U 236.5Over won
- Heat vs. Knicks: O/U 237.5Over won
- Heat vs. Knicks: O/U 238.5Over won
- Heat vs. Knicks: O/U 239.5Over won
- Heat vs. Knicks: O/U 240.5Over won
- Spread: Knicks (-3.5)Knicks won
- Spread: Knicks (-4.5)Knicks won
- Spread: Knicks (-5.5)Knicks won
- Spread: Knicks (-6.5)Knicks won
- Spread: Knicks (-9.5)Heat won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.