TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Will the Thunder beat the Pacers 4-1?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$390,860
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$384,086

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $390,860 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 197 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x41b7…f6babacked Yes31c94,566$29,315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29,315.580146.4%372 W · 429 L-1.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xafba…e61bbacked Yes31c89,122$27,627 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27,626.547848.1%230 W · 248 L-9.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc58d…9373backed Yes32c48,862$15,625 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,625.4228241.1%116 W · 166 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae36…8fb5backed No69c47,635$32,868 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,766.8910357.3%59 W · 44 L+9.1wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+5.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x011f…1122backed No68c31,097$21,058 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,039.4346426.1%121 W · 343 L+0.4wins0.00per pick26cpaid-16.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb58…86a4backed No70c13,441$9,349 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,092.2424151.9%125 W · 116 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x883e…31dfbacked Yes31c10,000$3,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,1004910.2%5 W · 44 L-2.7wins-0.06per pick16cpaid-15.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x15e0…8d86backed No71c8,576$6,116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,459.953764.9%24 W · 13 L+6.2wins+0.17per pick48cpaid+25.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x574e…3ef1backed Yes33c7,513$2,479 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,479.4330443.1%131 W · 173 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xac61…f5f7backed No69c7,445$5,137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,307.95475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.27per pick48cpaid+34.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1fdc…3ad2backed Yes29c6,384$1,868 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,867.68190%0 W · 19 L-4.6wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0x2d39…fa04backed Yes33c6,062$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00014040%56 W · 84 L-13.3wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-20.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd3fb…57e5backed Yes22c5,099$1,116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,115.832839.3%11 W · 17 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-10.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Yes18c5,000$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9001,26944.5%565 W · 704 L+32.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf655…7ea4backed No68c5,000$3,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,6003129%9 W · 22 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick24cpaid-9.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1c0d…2b92backed Yes22c4,601$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.6wins-0.18per pick29cpaid-49.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x12bd…730dbacked Yes31c4,419$1,370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3702751.9%14 W · 13 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-18.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb4f7…0331backed No73c4,110$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,109.596841.2%28 W · 40 L+3.6wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+13.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2707…0afabacked Yes34c4,000$1,358 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,358.535942.1%151 W · 208 L-12.9wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-14.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b6f…8afbbacked No69c4,000$2,760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,240250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-27.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfcb0…c865backed Yes29c4,000$1,160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,159.997953.2%42 W · 37 L-0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x253d…3307backed No70c3,610$2,519 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,091.13666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+0.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x245b…00c5backed Yes30c3,404$1,021 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,021.2314052.1%73 W · 67 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae30…d0a3backed No70c3,000$2,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9008353%44 W · 39 L+7.7wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+34.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x334b…d734backed Yes31c3,000$930 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93050%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4c03…0cc1backed Yes21c2,858$589 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$588.691,60211.8%189 W · 1,413 L-4.8wins0.00per pick12cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes20c2,431$474 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$474.161,11341.6%463 W · 650 L-10.0wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-17.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3613…79e1backed Yes31c2,368$722 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$722.2413133.6%44 W · 87 L-4.8wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-21.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4483…c565backed Yes31c2,179$675 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$675.4523251.7%120 W · 112 L-0.7wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4852…0770backed Yes31c2,097$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6501560%9 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed No77c2,000$1,540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46076850.3%386 W · 382 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b3d…76ddbacked No68c2,000$1,360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$640333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-51%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x44a0…c3b9backed Yes19c2,000$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38027547.6%131 W · 144 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-11.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e11…9bacbacked Yes29c1,822$528 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$528.332138.1%8 W · 13 L-2.0wins-0.10per pick48cpaid-26%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe9db…95dcbacked No71c1,659$1,178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$481.112100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e25…d7a7backed No68c1,594$1,088 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$505.8116537%61 W · 104 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-21.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed No69c1,505$1,039 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$466.6644740.7%182 W · 265 L-27.5wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-9.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xefa8…c82bbacked Yes26c1,482$379 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$379.063228.1%9 W · 23 L+1.9wins+0.06per pick22cpaid-2.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed No76c1,305$998 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$306.978445.8%359 W · 425 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1292…e678backed No78c1,300$1,016 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28418144.2%80 W · 101 L-6.0wins-0.03per pick48cpaid+6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xab5f…aab9backed No78c1,284$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$284.48757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-15.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd621…bc07backed No70c1,145$804 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$340.889555.8%53 W · 42 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+8.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x42c7…5823backed No69c1,100$760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$339.99757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick51cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x659c…8dfcbacked Yes20c1,092$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.331450%7 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick56cpaid+51.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…4c40backed Yes20c1,065$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21314434%49 W · 95 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-5.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x88b0…b118backed Yes17c976.29$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.2122041.4%91 W · 129 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-16.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Yes21c905.78$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.422,73646.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L-67.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa8b7…ee3cbacked No72c888$640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$247.5310542.9%45 W · 60 L+6.1wins+0.06per pick37cpaid-15.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa020…d807backed Yes29c827.59$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2404221.4%9 W · 33 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-26.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe893…f215backed Yes30c764.54$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.6830%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbffc…1f45backed No68c750$510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24010236.3%37 W · 65 L-7.6wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-5.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe411…04c5backed Yes21c727.94$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.871752.9%9 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-16.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c63…8974backed Yes20c600$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1201650%8 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-7.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb917…9a73backed Yes29c600$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.16per pick30cpaid+37%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No74c596.44$443 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.0518536.8%68 W · 117 L-11.1wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-29.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x430e…ed6dbacked No69c583.33$405 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178666.7%4 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick68cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc6b9…de6dbacked Yes28c550$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1545422.2%12 W · 42 L-11.5wins-0.21per pick43cpaid-50.3%equal weight34-0.15 edge/pick
0xa0b9…6048backed No79c503$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.131163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe07…d839backed Yes29c501.75$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.511811.1%2 W · 16 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick16cpaid-75.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a83…4c59backed Yes29c500$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1456025%15 W · 45 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-38.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b3c…ffc7backed Yes32c500$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16033743.6%147 W · 190 L-1.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes28c500$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14035049.4%173 W · 177 L+17.0wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+9.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x96cc…3963backed Yes20c500$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001040%4 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.10per pick30cpaid+38.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x84f8…0ff2backed Yes19c499.99$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$959939.4%39 W · 60 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick40cpaid+12.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed Yes25c499.58$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.0378652.4%412 W · 374 L+14.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3989…27b1backed Yes30c496.66$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14930641.8%128 W · 178 L-9.1wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-10.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9ca1…13b5backed No69c439.99$304 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.42100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+124%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x59d6…0704backed No72c416.67$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.6718755.6%104 W · 83 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes27c368.66$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.732,90238.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L-51.9wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdeb6…8f5dbacked Yes24c355.03$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.13219.5%2 W · 19 L-3.5wins-0.17per pick26cpaid-75.1%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xe966…c1c2backed No71c350$249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.5366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick44cpaid+28.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ba6…09eabacked Yes29c344.83$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002119%4 W · 17 L-3.5wins-0.17per pick36cpaid-61.6%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x736c…7470backed Yes31c324.19$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick38cpaid-13%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9ce…d77dbacked Yes29c319.69$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.715653.6%30 W · 26 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+25.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x92d5…a491backed Yes31c318.3$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1009131.9%29 W · 62 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+32.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x02f2…2cd0backed Yes32c312.5$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x742f…d673backed Yes21c309$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.8935352.4%185 W · 168 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4c90…f36cbacked Yes33c303.03$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100520%1 W · 4 L-2.0wins-0.41per pick61cpaid-70.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9738backed Yes19c300$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5795848.7%467 W · 491 L+24.5wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+1.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b6e…1563backed No69c300$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93650%3 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-18.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa75c…895ebacked Yes28c300$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$847347.9%35 W · 38 L-3.6wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-10.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbd94…0b01backed Yes29c300$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$873033.3%10 W · 20 L-4.3wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-48.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe71d…78cebacked Yes34c297.14$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001526.7%4 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-46.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb853…0d33backed No68c292.84$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.7135438.1%135 W · 219 L+1.5wins0.00per pick38cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfcfe…d420backed No69c289.86$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.8628949.1%142 W · 147 L-9.5wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-7.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x53ec…df91backed Yes29c286.95$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.2222750.2%114 W · 113 L+24.8wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+6.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x0484…c4ddbacked Yes31c250$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.5757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick55cpaid-5.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcced…9ffebacked No74c247.55$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.241533.3%5 W · 10 L-2.5wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-53.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x314a…2fbdbacked Yes19c229.67$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.64728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-18.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd303…9c76backed Yes31c222.63$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.0230%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcc80…2bc1backed Yes15c222.62$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.392725.9%7 W · 20 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-12.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc09a…75b1backed Yes32c221.15$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.61330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.8wins-0.14per pick45cpaid-55.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfe64…873ebacked Yes20c200$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.12per pick23cpaid-64.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6216…5403backed Yes20c195$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-61.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5036…416bbacked Yes27c193.92$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.3638845.9%178 W · 210 L+6.7wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbd5b…567dbacked Yes33c181.82$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+22.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe471…c87cbacked Yes29c177$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.3317326.6%46 W · 127 L+0.6wins0.00per pick26cpaid-13.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf383…8b45backed Yes34c176.47$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick27cpaid+13.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x976c…62b8backed Yes29c172.41$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.23per pick37cpaid-78%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed No68c160$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.51,38439.4%545 W · 839 L+4.8wins0.00per pick39cpaid-21.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.