NBA · resolved market
Will the Pacers beat the Thunder 4-2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7506825aa5e577e368467ca5810cc66e8508ad6b1e4506941679d77be189623f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $175,509
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $144,320
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $175,509 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x011f…1122backed Yes | 4c | 36,413$1,578 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,578.37 | 464 | 26.1%121 W · 343 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x883e…31dfbacked Yes | 19c | 20,771$3,945 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,945.22 | 49 | 10.2%5 W · 44 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc58d…9373backed Yes | 7c | 9,524$667 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$666.71 | 282 | 41.1%116 W · 166 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 20c | 7,900$1,614 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,614 | 359 | 42.1%151 W · 208 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed Yes | 6c | 6,162$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.72 | 368 | 43.8%161 W · 207 L | -17.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd523…0aa4backed Yes | 8c | 5,900$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x610d…188bbacked Yes | 6c | 5,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 186 | 28%52 W · 134 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd161…4cc1backed Yes | 15c | 4,500$695 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$695 | 784 | 45.8%359 W · 425 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15e0…8d86backed Yes | 7c | 2,899$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.93 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +6.2wins | +0.17per pick | 48cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb98b…7e18backed Yes | 4c | 2,830$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.6 | 412 | 27.4%113 W · 299 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +94.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6367…e938backed Yes | 6c | 2,350$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | +5.7wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x334b…d734backed Yes | 10c | 2,242$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.2 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Yes | 16c | 2,222$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.52 | 447 | 40.7%182 W · 265 L | -27.5wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed Yes | 7c | 2,055$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.95 | 228 | 26.3%60 W · 168 L | -10.3wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 9c | 1,625$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.88 | 1,782 | 28%499 W · 1,283 L | +11.5wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b42…ae6ebacked Yes | 19c | 1,579$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.01 | 136 | 36.8%50 W · 86 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe71d…78cebacked Yes | 7c | 1,459$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3fb…57e5backed Yes | 8c | 1,339$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.83 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05fc…f78ebacked Yes | 8c | 1,322$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.76 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb6…8f5dbacked Yes | 9c | 1,296$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.56 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -3.5wins | -0.17per pick | 26cpaid | -75.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x738a…b44cbacked Yes | 12c | 1,251$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.16 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa020…d807backed Yes | 17c | 1,190$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.4 | 42 | 21.4%9 W · 33 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f7…0331backed Yes | 17c | 1,183$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 4c | 1,112$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.72 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 15cpaid | -89.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7eee…5d47backed Yes | 18c | 1,111$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x681a…f823backed Yes | 16c | 1,029$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc3b…f625backed Yes | 9c | 896.85$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.72 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91ed…e60abacked Yes | 9c | 864.13$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.27 | 153 | 16.3%25 W · 128 L | -10.3wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd187…399cbacked Yes | 6c | 833.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x625c…61d1backed Yes | 10c | 763.89$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 47 | 25.5%12 W · 35 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 18cpaid | +55.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa07c…bbb0backed Yes | 19c | 740.5$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x909d…41f3backed Yes | 8c | 689$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f30…f73bbacked Yes | 16c | 625$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3753…9cb5backed Yes | 8c | 618.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca9f…f2d1backed Yes | 17c | 588.24$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b05…48f2backed Yes | 19c | 539.4$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 63 | 30.2%19 W · 44 L | -4.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x768f…d08cbacked Yes | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92d5…a491backed Yes | 8c | 461.81$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 91 | 31.9%29 W · 62 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a97…cf3abacked Yes | 7c | 433.33$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +124.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x87a4…953ebacked Yes | 17c | 429.41$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 489 | 48.5%237 W · 252 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 10c | 424$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.75 | 1,554 | 37.3%579 W · 975 L | -48.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac4…c7edbacked Yes | 11c | 423.73$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.9 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7baa…045fbacked Yes | 12c | 416.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 34 | 8.8%3 W · 31 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d39…fa04backed Yes | 17c | 411.76$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 140 | 40%56 W · 84 L | -13.3wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 8c | 394.5$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.69 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae2d…8f7bbacked Yes | 17c | 392.17$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8225…7619backed Yes | 6c | 333.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9e…547dbacked Yes | 23c | 300$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x007b…adc6backed Yes | 14c | 279.94$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 147 | 27.9%41 W · 106 L | -7.7wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab39…c22fbacked Yes | 8c | 278$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed Yes | 7c | 275.01$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 1,602 | 11.8%189 W · 1,413 L | -4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3322…6b9ebacked Yes | 8c | 272$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2751…1678backed Yes | 37c | 270.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 72 | 30.6%22 W · 50 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 17c | 260$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.65 | 1,132 | 17%192 W · 940 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72ad…3b11backed Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x59e2…a4ffbacked Yes | 18c | 250$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb500…ce53backed Yes | 7c | 249.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 12cpaid | -79%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a3f…e333backed Yes | 20c | 246.71$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.53 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…71eebacked Yes | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf383…8b45backed Yes | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 27cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…c87cbacked Yes | 18c | 217$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.06 | 173 | 26.6%46 W · 127 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb45c…e3a0backed Yes | 7c | 214.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6042…6330backed Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +3.2wins | +0.17per pick | 36cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3430…87e7backed Yes | 27c | 200$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x427a…e05abacked Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30a4…ecf8backed Yes | 17c | 176.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2279…d2f8backed Yes | 11c | 176.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 17c | 168$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.08 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5c2…4992backed Yes | 16c | 157.84$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 87 | 48.3%42 W · 45 L | +5.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf4…54fabacked Yes | 35c | 121$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.56 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1841…c63dbacked Yes | 10c | 120$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca72…a02abacked Yes | 24c | 105.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f64…ba01backed Yes | 12c | 100.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 427 | 40.3%172 W · 255 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b3c…ffc7backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 337 | 43.6%147 W · 190 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f62…65d8backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 138 | 36.2%50 W · 88 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -16%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34bc…9d88backed Yes | 17c | 88.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1571…c4e6backed Yes | 33c | 81.71$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 194 | 19.1%37 W · 157 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 72c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 1,226 | 37.4%458 W · 768 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Pacers beat the Thunder 4-2?this page
- Will the Pacers beat the Thunder 4-0?No won
- Will the Pacers beat the Thunder 4-1?No won
- Will the Pacers beat the Thunder 4-3?No won
- Will the Thunder beat the Pacers 4-0?No won
- Will the Thunder beat the Pacers 4-1?No won
- Will the Thunder beat the Pacers 4-2?No won
- Will the Thunder beat the Pacers 4-3?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.