NBA · resolved market
Will the Pacers beat the Thunder 4-0?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9e8423c3a0642e283ebaf940fba1d659d8f68efc1e9098ea5bbcf605edd601d0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $211,200
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $189,743
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $211,200 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x10fb…c66cbacked Yes | 2c | 20,000$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 97 | 47.4%46 W · 51 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6367…e938backed Yes | 1c | 17,514$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | +5.7wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1fdc…3ad2backed Yes | 2c | 14,365$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.19 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -4.6wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed Yes | 1c | 12,048$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.34 | 464 | 26.1%121 W · 343 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7eee…5d47backed Yes | 3c | 12,003$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.54 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x97ae…82bdbacked Yes | 2c | 10,000$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.99 | 308 | 26.6%82 W · 226 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae36…8fb5backed Yes | 1c | 8,541$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.79 | 103 | 57.3%59 W · 44 L | +9.1wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 2c | 6,792$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.47 | 98 | 4.1%4 W · 94 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed Yes | 2c | 6,306$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.03 | 1,602 | 11.8%189 W · 1,413 L | -4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x738a…b44cbacked Yes | 3c | 5,470$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 155 | 0%0 W · 155 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf020…a576backed Yes | 2c | 5,000$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 157 | 24.2%38 W · 119 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x253d…3307backed Yes | 2c | 5,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 1c | 4,783$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.6 | 45 | 17.8%8 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17ce…beecbacked Yes | 3c | 4,255$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.38 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84fd…2f81backed Yes | 1c | 4,025$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.18 | 41 | 24.4%10 W · 31 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…4c40backed Yes | 2c | 3,687$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.23 | 144 | 34%49 W · 95 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 3c | 3,410$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.6 | 1,782 | 28%499 W · 1,283 L | +11.5wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 2,081$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 1,132 | 17%192 W · 940 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Yes | 2c | 2,000$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 220 | 41.4%91 W · 129 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e35…c89abacked Yes | 3c | 2,000$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.53 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.16per pick | 22cpaid | -80.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x926f…f72ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,985$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | +5.4wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb6…8f5dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,941$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.63 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -3.5wins | -0.17per pick | 26cpaid | -75.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7db3…77ccbacked Yes | 3c | 1,678$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.49 | 37 | 13.5%5 W · 32 L | -4.5wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 2c | 1,217$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.49 | 79 | 5.1%4 W · 75 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9263…1999backed Yes | 1c | 1,202$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 108 | 8.3%9 W · 99 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 1c | 1,202$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed Yes | 2c | 1,069$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.03 | 88 | 40.9%36 W · 52 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,053$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.44 | 105 | 42.9%45 W · 60 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0daa…da86backed Yes | 1c | 1,008$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91ed…e60abacked Yes | 2c | 890.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.44 | 153 | 16.3%25 W · 128 L | -10.3wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf8b5…41b3backed Yes | 1c | 889.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Pacers beat the Thunder 4-0?this page
- Will the Pacers beat the Thunder 4-1?No won
- Will the Pacers beat the Thunder 4-2?No won
- Will the Pacers beat the Thunder 4-3?No won
- Will the Thunder beat the Pacers 4-0?No won
- Will the Thunder beat the Pacers 4-1?No won
- Will the Thunder beat the Pacers 4-2?No won
- Will the Thunder beat the Pacers 4-3?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.