TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Seattle Marinersof Seattle Mariners, Houston Astros
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$229,426
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$231,099

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $229,426 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 163 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5e94…5ba1backed Seattle Mariners47c164,063$77,839 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86,224.3846949%230 W · 239 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x10a6…4d8bbacked Houston Astros53c42,445$22,496 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,495.72853.6%15 W · 13 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+11.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Houston Astros52c39,494$20,537 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,5374,27947.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L-83.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4f29…7a7ebacked Seattle Mariners71c12,756$9,120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,636.022,96948.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L-5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-11.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30c1…9f91backed Houston Astros52c10,000$5,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,20012343.1%53 W · 70 L-5.0wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf438…9559backed Houston Astros53c9,434$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,0004949%24 W · 25 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Houston Astros36c9,018$3,279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,279.494,47848.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L-47.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Houston Astros53c8,849$4,688 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,687.6710,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Houston Astros29c7,623$2,203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,202.9211,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe963…6753backed Houston Astros52c7,240$3,765 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,764.86341.3%26 W · 37 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Houston Astros64c6,928$4,423 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,422.964,03557.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L+72.2wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4f9…c9a7backed Houston Astros15c6,395$959 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$959.234641.3%19 W · 27 L+3.6wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+28.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Seattle Mariners56c5,759$3,240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,519.188,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf152…64aabacked Houston Astros53c5,000$2,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,65077053.9%415 W · 355 L+8.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Houston Astros52c5,000$2,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,6005,40150.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L+17.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Houston Astros53c5,000$2,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,649.991,06348.2%512 W · 551 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed Houston Astros52c4,210$2,189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,189.3185645.3%388 W · 468 L+18.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+36.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x689f…259cbacked Houston Astros42c3,529$1,482 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,482.279639.6%38 W · 58 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick44cpaid+0.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Seattle Mariners72c3,451$2,473 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$977.6795045.2%429 W · 521 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-22.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc0df…5974backed Houston Astros53c2,830$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50022257.2%127 W · 95 L+8.1wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4951…3038backed Houston Astros53c2,483$1,316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3163348.5%16 W · 17 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Houston Astros4c2,464$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.454,38144.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L+77.8wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a03…92d3backed Seattle Mariners75c2,419$1,814 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$604.7612759.1%75 W · 52 L+9.8wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+15.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xabf5…cfebbacked Seattle Mariners46c2,000$920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,079.9444451.1%227 W · 217 L+1.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x09af…9728backed Houston Astros54c1,667$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90089153.5%477 W · 414 L+24.2wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd619…c461backed Houston Astros52c1,600$832 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83264452.2%336 W · 308 L+26.1wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x05c5…6a69backed Houston Astros65c1,542$1,001 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,001.0547358.4%276 W · 197 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Houston Astros52c1,500$780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78045252.4%237 W · 215 L-4.0wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e68…3772backed Houston Astros7c1,250$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.724947%117 W · 132 L+15.0wins+0.06per pick41cpaid-1.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Houston Astros52c1,234$644 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$644.231,51551.1%774 W · 741 L+7.5wins0.00per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xe8c4…395dbacked Houston Astros68c1,233$838 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$838.4469453.6%372 W · 322 L+14.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5811…0976backed Houston Astros53c1,169$620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$619.681,55548.9%761 W · 794 L+1.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Houston Astros53c1,024$543 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$542.722,29051%1,167 W · 1,123 L+23.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7091…96f8backed Houston Astros53c1,019$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5409642.7%41 W · 55 L-5.4wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-12%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Houston Astros53c1,004$532 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$532.126,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked Houston Astros10c750$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7594034.3%322 W · 618 L-2.8wins0.00per pick35cpaid-5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x09ee…90a4backed Houston Astros53c678$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$360.21,56951.1%801 W · 768 L+15.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a26…1589backed Seattle Mariners48c625$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3258551.8%44 W · 41 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b11…5375backed Houston Astros52c599$311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$311.481,77749.5%880 W · 897 L+25.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Seattle Mariners47c590.14$277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$312.771,90953.5%1,021 W · 888 L+29.1wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x87f7…8f45backed Seattle Mariners69c583.76$404 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.5246444.4%206 W · 258 L-18.2wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-16.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x684b…8409backed Seattle Mariners46c575.16$265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$310.5926054.2%141 W · 119 L+8.0wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcba5…cd88backed Houston Astros53c566.04$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30066050.2%331 W · 329 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Seattle Mariners39c565$221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$343.859,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Houston Astros52c522$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271.442,29649.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L+37.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Seattle Mariners76c513.51$392 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.131,49958.9%883 W · 616 L+75.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid-2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2185…b40cbacked Houston Astros62c500$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31026255.7%146 W · 116 L+9.8wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0f76…dcc9backed Seattle Mariners57c479.05$273 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.9685148.5%413 W · 438 L+10.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-15.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Seattle Mariners71c467.96$331 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.768,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5633…59bcbacked Houston Astros59c444$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.0627952%145 W · 134 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Houston Astros20c398.17$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.754,16950.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L+92.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x768f…8a9bbacked Seattle Mariners77c389.61$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.6112253.3%65 W · 57 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2465…5d84backed Seattle Mariners77c376$290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.481,10079.6%876 W · 224 L+32.7wins+0.03per pick77cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc313…e128backed Houston Astros32c373.66$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11937941.2%156 W · 223 L+10.1wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-0.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb88a…f6adbacked Houston Astros61c373$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.5328753.3%153 W · 134 L+10.5wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+15.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3a21…4aa9backed Houston Astros55c364.56$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20014452.8%76 W · 68 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+0.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Houston Astros25c361.45$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.012,02139.5%798 W · 1,223 L-25.7wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-14.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Houston Astros27c335.83$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.6712,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x95f5…779fbacked Seattle Mariners54c326.08$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.971,05644.3%468 W · 588 L-25.9wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-20.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x22a4…63ebbacked Houston Astros63c315.22$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001,20558.8%708 W · 497 L+31.1wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6d14…663fbacked Houston Astros53c306$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.1816856.5%95 W · 73 L+8.9wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+12.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfb0c…8c72backed Houston Astros53c300$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1591,20653.7%648 W · 558 L+29.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7f88…c6e8backed Houston Astros13c299$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.872123.8%5 W · 16 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick29cpaid-36.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Houston Astros53c298$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.122,80049.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L+0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd3e7…bf64backed Houston Astros25c268.28$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.0770744.7%316 W · 391 L-22.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-6.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4126…e68bbacked Houston Astros57c249$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.9734658.1%201 W · 145 L+8.7wins+0.03per pick56cpaid-6.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x40e9…494fbacked Houston Astros8c248.12$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.6612128.9%35 W · 86 L-6.0wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-36.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xeef6…cd4cbacked Houston Astros53c236.58$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.3955653.4%297 W · 259 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x22da…2866backed Houston Astros53c231.69$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.791,72550.1%864 W · 861 L-4.5wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x89c9…9534backed Seattle Mariners47c212.98$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.8891749.9%458 W · 459 L-3.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb624…3d80backed Seattle Mariners47c212.77$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.771145.5%5 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.09per pick36cpaid-2.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5adf…a5e7backed Seattle Mariners45c209.53$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.241,28947.2%609 W · 680 L-18.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1230…c70bbacked Seattle Mariners46c208.33$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.58856.8%50 W · 38 L+4.7wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+9.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x67be…6e09backed Houston Astros13c200$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2627231.3%85 W · 187 L-13.7wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-20.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd727…eccebacked Seattle Mariners47c200$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1063,29146.2%1,521 W · 1,770 L+20.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9852…111abacked Houston Astros53c188.68$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1005846.6%27 W · 31 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x68cb…0000backed Seattle Mariners60c181.33$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.7448660.5%294 W · 192 L+40.8wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc546…058ebacked Seattle Mariners77c179.95$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.495,12754.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L+232.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1f8b…37c8backed Seattle Mariners69c179.59$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.679570.5%67 W · 28 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xabe6…2faebacked Houston Astros15c170.4$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.284953.1%26 W · 23 L-0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe1e3…f1bdbacked Houston Astros53c170$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.121449.5%106 W · 108 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c8e…b38fbacked Houston Astros63c157.61$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10040658.4%237 W · 169 L+2.0wins0.00per pick58cpaid-0.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x29de…d9e6backed Houston Astros63c157.61$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10055259.6%329 W · 223 L+11.1wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9e7…af6bbacked Houston Astros53c142$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.2644750.6%226 W · 221 L-1.0wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad54…006abacked Houston Astros53c141.51$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7558060.5%351 W · 229 L+30.9wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+9.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3f41…5ffcbacked Seattle Mariners63c139.25$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.17248.6%35 W · 37 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-8.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x24ce…da46backed Houston Astros42c128.73$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.7547852.3%250 W · 228 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x70fc…ab12backed Houston Astros53c128$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.841,36754.3%742 W · 625 L+16.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb0b…62cdbacked Seattle Mariners47c123.74$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.5879543%342 W · 453 L-3.3wins0.00per pick43cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x17d7…9e1ebacked Houston Astros61c122.91$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.141,00058.8%588 W · 412 L+26.0wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3da8…be26backed Houston Astros53c120$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.622352.5%117 W · 106 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f43…3a74backed Houston Astros38c120$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.623255.2%128 W · 104 L+13.2wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+11.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x111a…a53bbacked Houston Astros26c115.38$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-50.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2eb5…c2adbacked Seattle Mariners47c103$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.599137.4%34 W · 57 L-7.6wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-18.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x2b35…0bfebacked Seattle Mariners45c100$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5599447.3%470 W · 524 L-6.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfed7…e405backed Houston Astros66c100$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.580159.2%474 W · 327 L+7.2wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f41…260ebacked Houston Astros53c100$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$536741.8%28 W · 39 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-10.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Houston Astros19c100$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.8458746%270 W · 317 L-12.4wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-19.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c78…7d67backed Seattle Mariners43c99.99$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.67445.9%34 W · 40 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x40f5…55b9backed Houston Astros53c94.34$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504546.7%21 W · 24 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.