MLB · resolved market
Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2b133d65428b9dda6426552e872a378f991913793d512a50adcc0ecb1d347a13
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $223,896
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $223,838
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $223,896 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5e94…5ba1backed Over | 51c | 203,921$104,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99,921.25 | 486 | 48.8%237 W · 249 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43ca…c219backed Under | 49c | 61,225$30,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30,000.25 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb727…2a9dbacked Under | 49c | 50,000$24,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24,500 | 69 | 46.4%32 W · 37 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 49c | 24,842$12,172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,172.39 | 11,606 | 52.8%6,131 W · 5,475 L | +210.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 49c | 22,377$10,957 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,957.29 | 11,054 | 51.5%5,694 W · 5,360 L | +137.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Under | 49c | 20,000$9,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,800 | 324 | 51.9%168 W · 156 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa084…bb99backed Under | 49c | 12,256$6,015 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,015.32 | 114 | 48.2%55 W · 59 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30c1…9f91backed Under | 49c | 10,000$4,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,900 | 123 | 43.1%53 W · 70 L | -5.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 46c | 3,730$1,724 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,723.6 | 8,251 | 46.3%3,820 W · 4,431 L | +41.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 50c | 2,655$1,335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,319.61 | 7,046 | 50.5%3,560 W · 3,486 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8efa…894cbacked Over | 51c | 2,000$1,010 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$990 | 486 | 45.7%222 W · 264 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Under | 50c | 918.37$459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459.19 | 883 | 50.4%445 W · 438 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed Under | 50c | 918.37$459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459.19 | 385 | 53.8%207 W · 178 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3f…4333backed Under | 50c | 918.36$459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459.18 | 577 | 53.2%307 W · 270 L | +13.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Under | 40c | 870.25$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.94 | 3,107 | 48.1%1,495 W · 1,612 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd2…14c2backed Under | 50c | 800$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 50c | 752.7$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.86 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Under | 50c | 745$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.5 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba4…6de0backed Under | 49c | 612.24$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.06 | 209 | 45%94 W · 115 L | -11.1wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x081b…1c6abacked Over | 51c | 600.98$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.48 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x547f…2937backed Under | 50c | 535.25$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.63 | 142 | 57%81 W · 61 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafee…881ebacked Under | 46c | 533.61$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.46 | 58 | 41.4%24 W · 34 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 49c | 520.27$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.93 | 1,848 | 50.3%930 W · 918 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Under | 49c | 506.25$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.48 | 559 | 51.9%290 W · 269 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Over | 66c | 402$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.69 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Over | 50c | 355.7$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.85 | 3,541 | 51%1,805 W · 1,736 L | +53.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 25c | 312.22$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.51 | 8,654 | 52.6%4,550 W · 4,104 L | +506.7wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 50c | 262.04$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.02 | 8,451 | 47.9%4,048 W · 4,403 L | +81.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Over | 66c | 238$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.29 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f41…5ffcbacked Under | 49c | 235.11$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.78 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb428…74c8backed Under | 50c | 202$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 464 | 45.7%212 W · 252 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Over | 66c | 202$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.68 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Over | 66c | 201$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.34 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Over | 65c | 201$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.35 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Over | 65c | 201$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.35 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Over | 65c | 201$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.35 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 672 | 48.5%326 W · 346 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 1,448 | 50%724 W · 724 L | +26.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,205 | 49%591 W · 614 L | +19.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e0…d084backed Over | 51c | 195.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.87 | 203 | 50.2%102 W · 101 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeef6…cd4cbacked Under | 49c | 188.07$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.15 | 588 | 52.9%311 W · 277 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Under | 49c | 182.2$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.28 | 1,671 | 49.1%820 W · 851 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed Over | 61c | 177.86$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.8 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 53c | 171.86$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.96 | 9,862 | 46.4%4,579 W · 5,283 L | +40.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 50c | 110.02$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.01 | 3,857 | 42.3%1,632 W · 2,225 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e53…922dbacked Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 311 | 47.9%149 W · 162 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…3a74backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 232 | 55.2%128 W · 104 L | +13.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Under | 49c | 99.14$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.58 | 1,221 | 50%610 W · 611 L | +5.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0f…b7aebacked Under | 30c | 98.9$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.67 | 534 | 38.6%206 W · 328 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Over | 66c | 77$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.18 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Over | 62c | 75.41$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.4 | 879 | 52.8%464 W · 415 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Over | 50c | 66$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 232 | 48.7%113 W · 119 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3c…35cfbacked Over | 50c | 64$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 144 | 53.5%77 W · 67 L | +6.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43ed…6232backed Over | 76c | 60.59$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.54 | 182 | 44.5%81 W · 101 L | -14.3wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 49c | 59.98$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.24 | 2,423 | 49.9%1,208 W · 1,215 L | +20.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 5,848 | 43.7%2,556 W · 3,292 L | -189.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Under | 40c | 49.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.04 | 1,236 | 44.3%547 W · 689 L | -30.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Under | 49c | 48.86$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.94 | 1,292 | 56.8%734 W · 558 L | +31.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09da…50bcbacked Under | 50c | 47.04$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.52 | 319 | 54.2%173 W · 146 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf0…3620backed Under | 49c | 45.35$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.22 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3517…5862backed Over | 73c | 41.67$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.07 | 91 | 54.9%50 W · 41 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38ef…8800backed Under | 48c | 41.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 427 | 48.2%206 W · 221 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x369e…d016backed Under | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 123 | 61.8%76 W · 47 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…eebbbacked Under | 47c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.86 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3,465 | 51.2%1,774 W · 1,691 L | +105.6wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3123…b44dbacked Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 135 | 54.1%73 W · 62 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c74…b63ebacked Over | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05b2…953bbacked Over | 75c | 36$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 109 | 41.3%45 W · 64 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1f…1e14backed Under | 50c | 35.26$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.63 | 75 | 65.3%49 W · 26 L | +10.1wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdcbb…07d9backed Under | 49c | 30.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 258 | 55%142 W · 116 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…d138backed Under | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 902 | 48.4%437 W · 465 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Under | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 926 | 69.5%644 W · 282 L | +94.4wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xde36…f41cbacked Under | 50c | 27.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 169 | 43.2%73 W · 96 L | -10.8wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x19a1…2fa0backed Under | 49c | 26.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed Over | 48c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.08 | 286 | 56.6%162 W · 124 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Over | 46c | 24.86$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b89…9f72backed Under | 49c | 21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 111 | 55%61 W · 50 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x345c…b59dbacked Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -4.0wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -17%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x45e6…a1ecbacked Over | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5this page
- Seattle Mariners vs. Houston AstrosSeattle Mariners won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros: O/U 10.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros: O/U 12.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5)Seattle Mariners won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.