MLB · resolved market
Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8a4ba97e95d2afb2938287e688595a7b0202da483170a9c3e9e5305dcc7821ed
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,528
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,129
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,528 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 54c | 3,200$1,732 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,467.11 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 52c | 2,508$1,316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,316.36 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 49c | 2,484$1,206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,277.82 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd403…a817backed Under | 2c | 2,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 4cpaid | +376.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Under | 44c | 491.82$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.36 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Under | 14c | 473$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.76 | 707 | 37.6%266 W · 441 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 75c | 420.4$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.31 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Under | 32c | 402$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.63 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 68c | 400$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.44 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa61…7f3bbacked Under | 61c | 327.87$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 151 | 53%80 W · 71 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Under | 23c | 253.08$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.21 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Under | 31c | 238$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.73 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9930…696ebacked Under | 56c | 237.34$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.91 | 305 | 48.9%149 W · 156 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Under | 31c | 202$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.62 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Under | 32c | 201$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.61 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Under | 31c | 201$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.31 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Under | 32c | 201$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.32 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Under | 32c | 201$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.32 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Under | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 1,173 | 29%340 W · 833 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Over | 32c | 187.69$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.63 | 473 | 46.5%220 W · 253 L | +25.7wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 39c | 174$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.14 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 29c | 163.64$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.58 | 11,356 | 52.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L | +209.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 55c | 134.71$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.04 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Over | 52c | 108.09$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.3 | 873 | 52.7%460 W · 413 L | +9.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Over | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 787 | 54.6%430 W · 357 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43ed…6232backed Over | 69c | 98$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.33 | 182 | 44.5%81 W · 101 L | -14.3wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Under | 31c | 77$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.87 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Over | 55c | 72.03$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.08 | 470 | 56.6%266 W · 204 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 39c | 69.77$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.56 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Over | 56c | 67.03$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.58 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c52…99e1backed Over | 73c | 54.79$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.79 | 49 | 75.5%37 W · 12 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 71cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed Over | 47c | 51$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.03 | 268 | 57.1%153 W · 115 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f41…5ffcbacked Over | 46c | 45.98$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.86 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 42c | 45.22$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.1 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Over | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5cf…7b4cbacked Under | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | -8.9wins | -0.11per pick | 63cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x05b2…953bbacked Over | 51c | 31$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.19 | 109 | 41.3%45 W · 64 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…d138backed Under | 61c | 26.69$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.23 | 881 | 47.8%421 W · 460 L | +4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe392…d868backed Over | 56c | 25.84$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.27 | 72 | 66.7%48 W · 24 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Over | 69c | 25.01$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.88 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5this page
- Seattle Mariners vs. Houston AstrosSeattle Mariners won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros: O/U 10.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros: O/U 12.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5)Seattle Mariners won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.