TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Pacers vs. Knicks

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Pacersof Pacers, Knicks
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,830,184
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,804,089

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,830,184 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 764 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xae36…8fb5backed Knicks14c458,722$65,970 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65,969.9610357.3%59 W · 44 L+9.1wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+5.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4259…936fbacked Pacers32c200,000$65,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135,000.338333.7%28 W · 55 L-7.6wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-29.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xce1f…41a9backed Knicks68c146,537$100,274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100,274.031136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.14per pick51cpaid-39.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x727b…d1a2backed Pacers33c143,367$47,833 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95,533.5928341.7%118 W · 165 L+9.3wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xafba…e61bbacked Knicks69c126,363$87,190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87,190.447848.1%230 W · 248 L-9.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d23…aa99backed Knicks68c117,456$79,870 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79,869.912147.6%10 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-10.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x15e0…8d86backed Knicks69c115,495$79,691 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79,691.483764.9%24 W · 13 L+6.2wins+0.17per pick48cpaid+25.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x6790…5e06backed Pacers32c109,029$34,409 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74,620.157335.6%26 W · 47 L+5.4wins+0.07per pick28cpaid+9.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa49b…4c40backed Pacers31c89,789$28,090 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61,699.1614434%49 W · 95 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-5.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xc58d…9373backed Pacers37c87,529$32,024 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55,504.7228241.1%116 W · 166 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x64b5…7543backed Pacers31c86,267$26,449 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59,818.2735235.8%126 W · 226 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9a75…4347backed Pacers71c70,976$50,330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,646.0313248.5%64 W · 68 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xdf2e…ddecbacked Knicks41c51,856$21,334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,333.9818146.4%84 W · 97 L-7.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-9.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe47c…3afabacked Pacers42c50,199$21,055 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29,143.4223342.9%100 W · 133 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+1.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfc25…1f7fbacked Pacers30c46,420$14,155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32,264.8196447.8%461 W · 503 L+35.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+17.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbde5…9c38backed Pacers31c30,706$9,444 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,261.171,19746.7%559 W · 638 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf2f6…5817backed Pacers32c25,000$8,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,0007946.8%37 W · 42 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x762e…4bf0backed Knicks61c24,762$15,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,000.335050%25 W · 25 L-3.4wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-13.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7e11…9bacbacked Knicks70c23,708$16,596 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,595.822138.1%8 W · 13 L-2.0wins-0.10per pick48cpaid-26%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1642…5988backed Pacers30c20,000$6,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,899.9436843.8%161 W · 207 L-17.8wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-12.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfba6…375cbacked Knicks69c18,684$12,908 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,908.3829957.2%171 W · 128 L+11.2wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+18.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe38e…c29dbacked Pacers51c18,667$9,464 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,202.8913560.7%82 W · 53 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd44c…ab91backed Pacers63c18,225$11,524 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,701.5528347.7%135 W · 148 L-5.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-12.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd727…eccebacked Pacers67c15,416$10,318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,097.451,19846.8%561 W · 637 L-7.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x30ae…4318backed Knicks69c15,354$10,594 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,593.9229858.7%175 W · 123 L-8.5wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7b88…5d08backed Knicks70c15,000$10,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,5007445.9%34 W · 40 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Knicks43c14,995$6,473 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,472.531,40940.2%567 W · 842 L-40.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-23.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4d9a…4e25backed Knicks32c14,000$4,465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,465.3128838.2%110 W · 178 L-18.2wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-14.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4447…a0e7backed Pacers38c13,953$5,339 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,613.559450%47 W · 47 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8679…4659backed Knicks69c13,539$9,363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,363.064551.1%23 W · 22 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick45cpaid-5.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4e25…d7a7backed Knicks38c13,131$4,944 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,944.3316537%61 W · 104 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-21.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed Pacers31c13,000$4,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,949.9776850.3%386 W · 382 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0662…5511backed Knicks69c12,574$8,676 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,675.75742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.20per pick63cpaid-24.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x134a…9e42backed Pacers34c12,322$4,181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,141.395942.4%25 W · 34 L+2.9wins+0.05per pick37cpaid0%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x920d…38adbacked Pacers32c10,417$3,333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,083.339849%48 W · 50 L+6.3wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+22.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf508…265cbacked Knicks55c10,341$5,660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,660.434484.1%37 W · 7 L+9.7wins+0.22per pick62cpaid+60.3%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0x011f…1122backed Knicks69c10,238$7,019 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,018.9946426.1%121 W · 343 L+0.4wins0.00per pick26cpaid-16.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x41bf…7ab3backed Knicks1c10,122$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60922.2%2 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.11per pick11cpaid+47%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Knicks67c10,000$6,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,699.9159653.4%318 W · 278 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf35…b5eabacked Pacers31c9,677$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,677.4213239.4%52 W · 80 L-8.7wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-13.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd4ce…c3c2backed Pacers31c9,450$2,918 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,531.5875%6 W · 2 L+3.1wins+0.39per pick36cpaid+94.9%equal weight61+0.09 edge/pick
0x0b7e…ce6dbacked Knicks61c9,422$5,747 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,747.433644.4%16 W · 20 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb38…ce37backed Pacers32c9,375$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,375560%3 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.24per pick36cpaid+86.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x325f…d8acbacked Pacers49c8,826$4,292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,533.570640.8%288 W · 418 L+7.8wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-10.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x24df…e8b2backed Pacers36c8,354$3,033 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,320.5137734%128 W · 249 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Knicks54c8,280$4,489 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,489.113,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe653…c4a7backed Pacers44c8,145$3,549 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,595.7722457.1%128 W · 96 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf704…7ddbbacked Pacers32c7,852$2,513 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,339.57714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.18per pick32cpaid-55.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Pacers33c7,500$2,475 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,0251,78228%499 W · 1,283 L+11.5wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xabe9…8826backed Knicks65c7,433$4,829 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,829.034143.9%18 W · 23 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x41b7…f6babacked Knicks60c7,430$4,458 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,458.1280146.4%372 W · 429 L-1.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x00be…5acabacked Knicks70c7,200$5,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,0401258.3%7 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x500e…5822backed Knicks70c7,181$5,027 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,026.564645.7%21 W · 25 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5523…51e9backed Knicks68c7,119$4,841 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,841.0161851.6%319 W · 299 L-1.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe367…f235backed Knicks44c7,100$3,092 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,091.7540%0 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xec92…98f5backed Knicks68c6,983$4,748 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,748.448053.8%43 W · 37 L-6.4wins-0.08per pick62cpaid-10.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc9f1…7917backed Knicks69c6,845$4,723 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,722.96850%4 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-28.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb42d…3d11backed Pacers30c6,416$1,925 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,491.443636.1%13 W · 23 L+3.6wins+0.10per pick26cpaid+32.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Knicks23c6,291$1,420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,419.561,31650.5%664 W · 652 L+42.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa320…8232backed Pacers32c6,204$1,985 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,2197261.1%44 W · 28 L+8.3wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+30.4%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0x6ff1…efdbbacked Pacers30c6,203$1,861 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,341.861471.4%10 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.10per pick61cpaid+26.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa8f2…5495backed Pacers50c5,950$2,968 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,982.15536.4%20 W · 35 L-3.7wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-15.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x339a…1eaebacked Pacers31c5,844$1,827 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,016.491,75961.7%1,085 W · 674 L+127.5wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Knicks69c5,739$3,960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,959.692,73646.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L-67.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xab6e…b95cbacked Knicks33c5,735$1,892 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,892.4810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ecd…a578backed Knicks56c5,500$3,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,08023135.1%81 W · 150 L-11.1wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-11.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7f65…d7aebacked Pacers32c5,147$1,640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,506.4825536.9%94 W · 161 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac63…7afcbacked Knicks70c5,000$3,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,5001127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick37cpaid-24.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5aca…8b98backed Pacers30c5,000$1,520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,4803036.7%11 W · 19 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+30.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Knicks69c5,000$3,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,449.9979549.7%395 W · 400 L-0.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5cd5…ac33backed Knicks69c4,845$3,343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,343.051478.6%11 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick70cpaid+16.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9eea…281dbacked Pacers77c4,841$3,730 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,111.2826547.9%127 W · 138 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x77d6…4fd2backed Pacers31c4,737$1,468 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,268.248458.3%49 W · 35 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+9.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbc40…4036backed Knicks70c4,695$3,278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,278.34366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick67cpaid+4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x160d…5295backed Knicks70c4,500$3,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,1508345.8%38 W · 45 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+20.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x76c8…ba09backed Knicks21c4,416$924 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$923.617929.1%23 W · 56 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-17.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x363a…df44backed Pacers31c4,238$1,314 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,924.254841.7%20 W · 28 L0.0wins0.00per pick42cpaid+16.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbe81…5fe9backed Pacers51c3,900$2,004 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,896933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.9wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-46.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Knicks43c3,884$1,659 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,658.752,16940.8%885 W · 1,284 L-8.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-14.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x617a…07b4backed Knicks23c3,861$874 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$873.971631.3%5 W · 11 L+2.2wins+0.14per pick17cpaid+78.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x171f…95fbbacked Pacers30c3,687$1,108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,578.411741.2%7 W · 10 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+98.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4924…f328backed Pacers36c3,634$1,304 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,330.8438143%164 W · 217 L+13.4wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6650…d38ebacked Knicks50c3,600$1,782 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,7826746.3%31 W · 36 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0ec…6064backed Pacers31c3,500$1,085 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,41513929.5%41 W · 98 L+0.5wins0.00per pick29cpaid-16.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1571…c4e6backed Pacers41c3,349$1,388 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,960.2919419.1%37 W · 157 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick21cpaid-26.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Pacers42c3,233$1,367 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,865.911,75240.6%712 W · 1,040 L-3.3wins0.00per pick41cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x07dd…ed9dbacked Knicks3c3,188$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.6314040%56 W · 84 L+10.4wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+6.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5303…d66ebacked Pacers32c3,125$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,1258921.3%19 W · 70 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-29.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbcad…5078backed Knicks2c3,111$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.614052.5%21 W · 19 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+16.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3339…48a5backed Pacers32c3,050$976 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,074714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.23per pick37cpaid-55.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Knicks61c3,000$1,830 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,8301,26944.5%565 W · 704 L+32.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x574e…3ef1backed Knicks31c3,000$930 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93030443.1%131 W · 173 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f19…b0cabacked Knicks29c2,930$851 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$850.7124423.8%58 W · 186 L-7.1wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-56.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9592…a85bbacked Pacers31c2,918$914 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,003.2428245.4%128 W · 154 L+7.8wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa8b9…1921backed Knicks35c2,872$1,005 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,005.03742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e56…dee1backed Knicks70c2,816$1,971 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,971.317038.6%27 W · 43 L-5.2wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-2.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x799c…bcefbacked Knicks69c2,786$1,922 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,92227163.5%172 W · 99 L+0.9wins0.00per pick63cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e27…0ee1backed Pacers32c2,683$869 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,814.377343.8%32 W · 41 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6641…4a1abacked Pacers32c2,615$837 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,778.261752.9%9 W · 8 L+2.0wins+0.12per pick41cpaid+32.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd9dd…b525backed Knicks52c2,600$1,339 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,33944337.9%168 W · 275 L-0.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-9.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.