TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Thunder vs. Nuggets

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Thunderof Thunder, Nuggets
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,120,054
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,196,637

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,120,054 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 575 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xae36…8fb5backed Nuggets5c276,279$13,166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,16610357.3%59 W · 44 L+9.1wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+5.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x245b…00c5backed Thunder70c129,806$91,364 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38,441.6614052.1%73 W · 67 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x93fc…34b6backed Nuggets24c94,762$23,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,0204025%10 W · 30 L-5.2wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-47.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe653…c4a7backed Thunder76c84,114$64,190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,923.8122457.1%128 W · 96 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x727b…d1a2backed Nuggets30c66,683$19,987 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,987.3928341.7%118 W · 165 L+9.3wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc58d…9373backed Nuggets29c59,596$17,283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,282.9528241.1%116 W · 166 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6790…5e06backed Nuggets23c50,000$11,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,7007335.6%26 W · 47 L+5.4wins+0.07per pick28cpaid+9.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5fad…1d0abacked Nuggets30c47,677$14,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,400250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-21.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc25…1f7fbacked Nuggets29c43,864$12,558 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,558.1396447.8%461 W · 503 L+35.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+17.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7ba5…aaf1backed Thunder71c33,222$23,587 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,634.2636748.2%177 W · 190 L-4.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Thunder67c32,324$21,648 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,675.851,31650.5%664 W · 652 L+42.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…4c40backed Nuggets31c30,261$9,230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,230.2714434%49 W · 95 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-5.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xecb1…5da3backed Thunder68c23,244$15,886 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,358.568840.9%36 W · 52 L-3.5wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-27.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Nuggets35c21,930$7,630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,630.221,75240.6%712 W · 1,040 L-3.3wins0.00per pick41cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x997e…2d75backed Nuggets33c20,982$7,027 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,026.8610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xafba…e61bbacked Thunder69c20,538$14,216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,321.3347848.1%230 W · 248 L-9.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe47c…3afabacked Nuggets18c18,970$3,485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,484.923342.9%100 W · 133 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+1.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc8b4…f05dbacked Nuggets29c18,845$5,465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,464.9166853.4%357 W · 311 L+22.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+7.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdf2e…ddecbacked Nuggets34c17,998$6,039 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,039.0418146.4%84 W · 97 L-7.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-9.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Nuggets38c17,184$6,471 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,471.341,40940.2%567 W · 842 L-40.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-23.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x889e…09e0backed Nuggets5c16,275$866 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$865.910926.6%29 W · 80 L-5.6wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-26.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf9f2…5cbabacked Nuggets0c16,000$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.83350%0 W · 335 L-4.8wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf508…265cbacked Thunder71c15,985$11,382 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,602.534484.1%37 W · 7 L+9.7wins+0.22per pick62cpaid+60.3%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0xa315…cabbbacked Nuggets29c14,600$4,289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,28962351.4%320 W · 303 L-13.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa535…6bf5backed Thunder70c14,323$10,026 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,296.789557.9%55 W · 40 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe5fb…84b5backed Thunder74c14,304$10,562 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,742.091782.4%14 W · 3 L+4.3wins+0.25per pick57cpaid+74.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x12bd…730dbacked Thunder72c14,223$10,241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,982.542751.9%14 W · 13 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-18.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6094…3bd9backed Nuggets14c13,948$2,005 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,004.868536.5%31 W · 54 L+8.8wins+0.10per pick26cpaid+61.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0f66…8938backed Nuggets31c13,490$4,143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,143.4826431.8%84 W · 180 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick31cpaid+5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f0b…eb6dbacked Nuggets29c13,000$3,770 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,77022137.6%83 W · 138 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x24df…e8b2backed Nuggets27c12,979$3,518 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,518.2137734%128 W · 249 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc6ab…5eb9backed Thunder72c12,681$9,102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,578.246873.5%50 W · 18 L+5.9wins+0.09per pick65cpaid+20.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa8e0…1dd2backed Nuggets29c12,596$3,653 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,652.956344.4%28 W · 35 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-3.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7709…5852backed Nuggets0c12,500$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5011229.5%33 W · 79 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2aa2…4d22backed Thunder79c11,800$9,340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,459.8936057.5%207 W · 153 L-14.7wins-0.04per pick62cpaid-9.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb0e0…68a8backed Nuggets19c11,784$2,239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,238.886750.7%34 W · 33 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2cce…6e85backed Nuggets10c11,229$1,081 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,081.0422039.1%86 W · 134 L+14.0wins+0.06per pick33cpaid+21.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa8f2…5495backed Nuggets40c11,113$4,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,5005536.4%20 W · 35 L-3.7wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-15.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb8c4…7385backed Nuggets27c10,364$2,790 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,790.3147542.3%201 W · 274 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x322d…305fbacked Nuggets30c10,003$3,001 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,000.91145.5%5 W · 6 L+1.8wins+0.16per pick29cpaid+47.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2c70…232abacked Nuggets30c10,000$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,0005337.7%20 W · 33 L+4.2wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+26%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x41b7…f6babacked Thunder45c10,000$4,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,50080146.4%372 W · 429 L-1.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ef5…8898backed Thunder71c10,000$7,130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,869.843852.6%20 W · 18 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc814…dc7cbacked Thunder80c10,000$8,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,000540%2 W · 3 L-1.7wins-0.33per pick73cpaid-49.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xac63…7afcbacked Nuggets34c9,818$3,302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,301.821127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick37cpaid-24.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1208…0160backed Nuggets23c9,494$2,144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,14466732.4%216 W · 451 L+41.8wins+0.06per pick26cpaid-3.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4e25…d7a7backed Nuggets43c9,470$4,087 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,087.316537%61 W · 104 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-21.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9602…4d02backed Thunder75c9,200$6,875 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,325.2612040.8%49 W · 71 L-5.2wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfba6…375cbacked Thunder72c9,117$6,535 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,581.8229957.2%171 W · 128 L+11.2wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+18.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc164…5fcebacked Nuggets13c9,000$1,185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,185425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-62.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5523…51e9backed Thunder70c8,915$6,272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,643.4461851.6%319 W · 299 L-1.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb42d…3d11backed Nuggets19c8,878$1,728 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,728.093636.1%13 W · 23 L+3.6wins+0.10per pick26cpaid+32.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcbbc…ea5abacked Thunder71c8,451$6,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,450.71838.9%7 W · 11 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-1.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x76c8…ba09backed Nuggets18c8,303$1,509 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,508.957929.1%23 W · 56 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-17.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1752…7993backed Thunder77c8,264$6,367 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,897.294062.5%25 W · 15 L+6.3wins+0.16per pick47cpaid+52%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xe38e…c29dbacked Thunder74c8,178$6,048 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,130.2813560.7%82 W · 53 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x40f8…327dbacked Nuggets23c7,908$1,819 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,818.816339.7%25 W · 38 L-3.6wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-19.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7f65…d7aebacked Nuggets30c7,210$2,163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,162.9125536.9%94 W · 161 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe3ff…805cbacked Nuggets30c6,667$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00042827.3%117 W · 311 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa78d…e8cbbacked Nuggets1c6,016$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.512920.7%6 W · 23 L+3.7wins+0.13per pick8cpaid+24.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe25b…0f1bbacked Thunder41c6,000$2,480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,520.083948.7%19 W · 20 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+26%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd04d…d0e5backed Thunder70c6,000$4,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,8001,16449.6%577 W · 587 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x53ec…b8adbacked Thunder70c5,726$4,008 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,717.79757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.11per pick47cpaid-16.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x363a…df44backed Thunder56c5,721$3,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,521.094841.7%20 W · 28 L0.0wins0.00per pick42cpaid+16.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Thunder51c5,558$2,807 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,750.773,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa2f1…2d22backed Thunder71c5,372$3,814 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,557.888350.6%42 W · 41 L+6.4wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+4.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9d45…b661backed Nuggets24c5,202$1,241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,241.213731.4%43 W · 94 L+4.9wins+0.04per pick28cpaid-0.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeaa9…c084backed Thunder70c5,186$3,630 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,555.811650%8 W · 8 L-0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-12.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ecd…a578backed Thunder37c5,100$1,887 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,21323135.1%81 W · 150 L-11.1wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-11.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Nuggets30c5,050$1,515 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,514.961,78228%499 W · 1,283 L+11.5wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x011f…1122backed Thunder71c5,000$3,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,45046426.1%121 W · 343 L+0.4wins0.00per pick26cpaid-16.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1642…5988backed Nuggets29c5,000$1,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,45036843.8%161 W · 207 L-17.8wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-12.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc8aa…ae12backed Nuggets31c5,000$1,529 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5297829.5%23 W · 55 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-9.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0327…1390backed Nuggets29c4,979$1,444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,444.051163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.11per pick52cpaid+63%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9079…e5aabacked Nuggets42c4,768$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x05b9…af0abacked Nuggets40c4,535$1,804 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,803.542240.9%9 W · 13 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+29.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x33c2…9818backed Nuggets30c4,521$1,366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,365.822532%8 W · 17 L0.0wins0.00per pick32cpaid-15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x19b8…9c8ebacked Nuggets28c4,482$1,239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,238.9438027.1%103 W · 277 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick26cpaid+4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e44…e83fbacked Nuggets24c4,167$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0001136.4%4 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick36cpaid-34%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x07cb…743cbacked Thunder51c4,096$2,073 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,022.85230.8%16 W · 36 L-6.7wins-0.13per pick44cpaid-26.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x325f…d8acbacked Thunder56c3,564$2,007 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,557.4770640.8%288 W · 418 L+7.8wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-10.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Thunder70c3,500$2,450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,049.9979549.7%395 W · 400 L-0.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefaf…26a1backed Nuggets2c3,352$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5819535.4%69 W · 126 L+5.7wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-2.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc84…3e67backed Thunder55c3,248$1,786 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,461.42842.9%12 W · 16 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-4.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c81…3b0cbacked Nuggets31c3,214$1,004 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,004.01728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick24cpaid+12%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbcad…5078backed Nuggets40c3,140$1,256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,255.814052.5%21 W · 19 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+16.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf935…51abbacked Nuggets30c3,075$935 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$935.3757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.9wins+0.27per pick30cpaid+82.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x83c8…5d9ebacked Thunder56c3,040$1,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,339.652347.8%11 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-15.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Nuggets30c3,000$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9001,26944.5%565 W · 704 L+32.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9353…cdbebacked Nuggets22c2,963$643 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$643.4168642.1%289 W · 397 L+9.9wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xed0e…b305backed Nuggets4c2,615$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.621723.5%51 W · 166 L+9.6wins+0.04per pick19cpaid+75.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7dfa…387abacked Nuggets8c2,610$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.921414.3%2 W · 12 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick25cpaid-60.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1f2f…59b1backed Nuggets30c2,500$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0dcb…a331backed Nuggets31c2,463$764 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$763.513342.4%14 W · 19 L+2.6wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+37.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9a75…4347backed Nuggets3c2,361$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.7813248.5%64 W · 68 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x2942…59abbacked Nuggets26c2,300$597 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59718044.4%80 W · 100 L+15.8wins+0.09per pick36cpaid+36.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0b7e…ce6dbacked Thunder71c2,268$1,610 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$657.793644.4%16 W · 20 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x01f8…ee2dbacked Nuggets26c2,130$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55030%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9a38…6a2cbacked Nuggets34c2,126$723 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$722.7610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1119…7d62backed Nuggets30c2,112$634 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$633.71333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-44.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.