NBA · resolved market
Over 227.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdf47b06a92d91b2d160d036f7c6a08d2c67d0540375d80543b4963241f4d62ae
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,232
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,587
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,232 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Over | 0c | 7,061$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 1,132 | 17%192 W · 940 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Under | 46c | 3,900$1,813 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,086.49 | 1,752 | 40.6%712 W · 1,040 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…dbbcbacked Under | 48c | 2,780$1,335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,445.81 | 200 | 47%94 W · 106 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a2…3b96backed Over | 54c | 2,218$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e05…01cdbacked Over | 58c | 1,723$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.54 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…97d0backed Over | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520 | 248 | 55.6%138 W · 110 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 45c | 228$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.4 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Under | 42c | 226.23$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.22 | 181 | 46.4%84 W · 97 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf092…4ebabacked Over | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 88 | 56.8%50 W · 38 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0624…017dbacked Over | 55c | 136.36$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 169 | 58%98 W · 71 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69fc…3f73backed Over | 53c | 121.49$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.39 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 786 | 52.4%412 W · 374 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe45d…f77ebacked Over | 53c | 88.34$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.82 | 253 | 36.8%93 W · 160 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbec3…f088backed Over | 23c | 76.67$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa862…46e2backed Under | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a3b…fa08backed Under | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Over 227.5this page
- Over 228.5Under won
- Over 229.5Under won
- Spread: Thunder (-10.5)Underdog won
- Spread: Thunder (-4.5)Favorite won
- Spread: Thunder (-5.5)Underdog won
- Spread: Thunder (-6.5)Underdog won
- Spread: Thunder (-8.5)Underdog won
- Thunder vs. NuggetsThunder won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.