NBA · resolved market
Spread: Thunder (-6.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3909685a3008bc3b6aee038b5488e6bff245399d57ba67e7f8221ba747e0ba80
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underdogof Favorite, Underdog
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,727
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,802
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,727 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4924…f328backed Favorite | 53c | 5,923$3,139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,138.58 | 381 | 43%164 W · 217 L | +13.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Underdog | 47c | 3,392$1,594 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,797.89 | 181 | 46.4%84 W · 97 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Underdog | 49c | 2,000$980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,020 | 1,269 | 44.5%565 W · 704 L | +32.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Underdog | 47c | 1,900$893 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,007 | 1,752 | 40.6%712 W · 1,040 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked Underdog | 47c | 1,030$485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$544.9 | 299 | 57.2%171 W · 128 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf40…1bd2backed Favorite | 53c | 830$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.9 | 122 | 32%39 W · 83 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Underdog | 47c | 425.53$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.53 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c8…090cbacked Favorite | 53c | 236.23$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 105 | 46.7%49 W · 56 L | -5.9wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Favorite | 53c | 200$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 1,554 | 37.3%579 W · 975 L | -48.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcef4…6c83backed Underdog | 47c | 190$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.7 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44bc…c53ebacked Favorite | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 191 | 49.7%95 W · 96 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Favorite | 53c | 94.08$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.84 | 786 | 52.4%412 W · 374 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Underdog | 47c | 92$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.76 | 668 | 53.4%357 W · 311 L | +22.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c11…02c8backed Underdog | 52c | 91.06$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.71 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7eee…b4b2backed Underdog | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 145 | 62.8%91 W · 54 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…cd12backed Favorite | 70c | 26$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Thunder (-6.5)this page
- Over 227.5Under won
- Over 228.5Under won
- Over 229.5Under won
- Spread: Thunder (-10.5)Underdog won
- Spread: Thunder (-4.5)Favorite won
- Spread: Thunder (-5.5)Underdog won
- Spread: Thunder (-8.5)Underdog won
- Thunder vs. NuggetsThunder won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.