NFL · resolved market
Will the Packers win the NFC North?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x30182a7c0455cbbd331bff51cd30c598cac372962d6908f8c7d1fd02cc0ce0a0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $59,423
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,179
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $59,423 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfd95…99f2backed Yes | 24c | 6,742$1,586 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,586.16 | 157 | 22.3%35 W · 122 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed Yes | 13c | 5,434$693 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$693.12 | 120 | 22.5%27 W · 93 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -30%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b8e…014bbacked Yes | 29c | 3,424$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47bc…c043backed Yes | 12c | 2,222$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.64 | 67 | 34.3%23 W · 44 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53ec…df91backed Yes | 20c | 1,811$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.2 | 224 | 34.4%77 W · 147 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f022backed No | 71c | 1,293$913 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.88 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | +8.8wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd2…7f1dbacked Yes | 31c | 1,290$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a14…0762backed Yes | 31c | 1,138$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.24 | 102 | 39.2%40 W · 62 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6678…d4b6backed Yes | 1c | 1,104$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 181 | 44.8%81 W · 100 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fab…37b4backed Yes | 1c | 1,100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2137…0677backed Yes | 12c | 1,001$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.25 | 204 | 40.7%83 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -17%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc21d…4ed8backed Yes | 30c | 1,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 66 | 34.8%23 W · 43 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes | 23c | 894$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.33 | 118 | 39%46 W · 72 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98cb…bd72backed Yes | 30c | 700$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5135…8839backed No | 80c | 600$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe077…8ee3backed Yes | 6c | 534.78$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.09 | 74 | 9.5%7 W · 67 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07c5…faeebacked Yes | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.75 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc395…5c8cbacked No | 71c | 467.2$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.49 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb984…2a41backed Yes | 22c | 399.99$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 60 | 18.3%11 W · 49 L | -6.1wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x534d…84fbbacked Yes | 13c | 384.62$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -24%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06a2…0acbbacked Yes | 14c | 350$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 284 | 33.1%94 W · 190 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb11…e93fbacked Yes | 4c | 349.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 62 | 38.7%24 W · 38 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2072…1201backed Yes | 16c | 312.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked No | 69c | 298.36$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.26 | 247 | 38.1%94 W · 153 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87b9…37fdbacked Yes | 22c | 266.6$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +22%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2855…afffbacked No | 68c | 203.98$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.27 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0c…862abacked Yes | 14c | 178.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1173…ba78backed Yes | 18c | 163.88$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3200…d8c8backed Yes | 31c | 145.16$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +25%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c34…1bdebacked Yes | 14c | 140$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 9c | 119$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 180 | 9.4%17 W · 163 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x438d…3ec8backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0545…4e37backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 38 | 15.8%6 W · 32 L | -5.2wins | -0.14per pick | 29cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcdec…ba9bbacked Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4094…5c0cbacked Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 18cpaid | +72.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa667…4666backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +23%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe9…4749backed Yes | 13c | 97.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -62%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…e17ebacked No | 68c | 68.75$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 92 | 40.2%37 W · 55 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ff9…0524backed Yes | 27c | 55.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b55…02f8backed No | 78c | 49.33$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa78b…e9a1backed Yes | 32c | 46.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Packers win the NFC North?this page
- Will the Bears win the NFC North?No won
- Will the Lions win the NFC North?Yes won
- Will the Vikings win the NFC North?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.