NFL · resolved market
Will the Vikings win the NFC North?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0aee45b3f8defa4c0e45589ae9b5aab330a259734c77a2a6955c643cfbc939c7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $74,770
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $63,505
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $74,770 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8538…cd51backed Yes | 11c | 4,487$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475 | 33 | 3%1 W · 32 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd398…46d7backed Yes | 14c | 4,000$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 256 | 43.8%112 W · 144 L | +14.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb43…b10abacked Yes | 10c | 3,526$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.44 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Yes | 17c | 2,881$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496.81 | 196 | 38.8%76 W · 120 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2137…0677backed No | 54c | 2,468$1,332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,136.34 | 204 | 40.7%83 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -17%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd95…99f2backed Yes | 9c | 2,323$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.09 | 157 | 22.3%35 W · 122 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47bc…c043backed Yes | 12c | 2,222$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.64 | 67 | 34.3%23 W · 44 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb35b…fc08backed Yes | 36c | 2,000$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720 | 178 | 23%41 W · 137 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53d2…0c3fbacked No | 64c | 1,681$1,070 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$610.93 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7591…9829backed Yes | 19c | 1,464$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.72 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 23c | 1,376$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.18 | 180 | 9.4%17 W · 163 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes | 20c | 1,013$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.34 | 118 | 39%46 W · 72 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6678…d4b6backed Yes | 17c | 986.47$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 181 | 44.8%81 W · 100 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa472…45aebacked Yes | 11c | 958.35$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.42 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7494…6e0bbacked Yes | 26c | 896.97$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.8 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 24c | 893.27$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.93 | 134 | 30.6%41 W · 93 L | -12.1wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -39%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2b51…e165backed No | 74c | 810$601 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.8 | 304 | 46.7%142 W · 162 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0298…93c4backed Yes | 28c | 761.65$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.89 | 283 | 37.8%107 W · 176 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc82e…2284backed Yes | 48c | 731.29$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea3e…b956backed Yes | 29c | 675$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.75 | 243 | 51.4%125 W · 118 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1eb…7afebacked Yes | 22c | 600$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf655…7ea4backed Yes | 23c | 600$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 162 | 26.5%43 W · 119 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed Yes | 11c | 556.05$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.34 | 120 | 22.5%27 W · 93 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -30%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2714…c49bbacked Yes | 20c | 550$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53ec…df91backed No | 75c | 540.37$407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.01 | 224 | 34.4%77 W · 147 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b02…f3d9backed Yes | 39c | 499.98$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.99 | 211 | 51.2%108 W · 103 L | +12.3wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x27ee…a1debacked Yes | 22c | 491.52$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.51 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb11…e93fbacked Yes | 21c | 449$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.42 | 62 | 38.7%24 W · 38 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa02f…e4b1backed Yes | 39c | 419.84$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.06 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -3.6wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0e4c…fbc2backed Yes | 8c | 380$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cfc…7f80backed No | 70c | 378.71$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.61 | 56 | 28.6%16 W · 40 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x06a2…0acbbacked Yes | 15c | 374.2$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 284 | 33.1%94 W · 190 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe603…94b4backed Yes | 36c | 332.74$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.33 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd16…a2cdbacked Yes | 20c | 322.85$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.57 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -50%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda14…a40cbacked Yes | 22c | 312.69$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.37 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ebb…9991backed Yes | 40c | 250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc26f…bc7cbacked No | 60c | 250$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4948…0b44backed Yes | 8c | 247.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc395…5c8cbacked Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x480f…0905backed No | 72c | 200$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef94…502ebacked Yes | 16c | 175$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | +4.4wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaac5…b414backed No | 54c | 174$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +86.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf81c…a1edbacked Yes | 46c | 174$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07c5…faeebacked Yes | 18c | 143.22$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.78 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08f5…f630backed Yes | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43dd…5291backed Yes | 24c | 125.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3831…c9bfbacked Yes | 28c | 125.83$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.23 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe45e…ebb0backed Yes | 42c | 119.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 48 | 33.3%16 W · 32 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…83f5backed Yes | 25c | 117.28$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.32 | 153 | 32%49 W · 104 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3d…8db7backed No | 51c | 106.12$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 164 | 39.6%65 W · 99 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa15b…30f1backed No | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93d0…0c2ebacked Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 132 | 55.3%73 W · 59 L | +10.5wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x415c…3c94backed Yes | 25c | 97.04$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.26 | 49 | 26.5%13 W · 36 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadf4…ce9dbacked Yes | 26c | 95$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 14c | 94.71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 528 | 28.6%151 W · 377 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…b468backed Yes | 28c | 89.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9292…2cd1backed Yes | 40c | 62.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb27…4d56backed Yes | 23c | 61.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 67c | 60.69$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.75 | 88 | 37.5%33 W · 55 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 69c | 60.04$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.66 | 122 | 39.3%48 W · 74 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +87.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x385f…54bdbacked No | 72c | 57.18$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.01 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbae4…c085backed Yes | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 134 | 28.4%38 W · 96 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee3…33b4backed Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.31per pick | 48cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x774c…319ebacked Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b55…02f8backed No | 57c | 49.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e40…41aabacked Yes | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0c…862abacked No | 59c | 42.37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.37 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c57…224bbacked Yes | 43c | 34.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82f0…37adbacked Yes | 48c | 31.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5174…45e9backed No | 62c | 25.92$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.74 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56da…fd90backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…6077backed No | 61c | 21.55$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf259…7592backed No | 75c | 20.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.03 | 42 | 26.2%11 W · 31 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…d424backed No | 50c | 20.01$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.01 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +3.3wins | +0.13per pick | 26cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x69a4…bba9backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe05b…e622backed No | 61c | 19.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +55.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x385d…8495backed No | 61c | 17.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Vikings win the NFC North?this page
- Will the Bears win the NFC North?No won
- Will the Lions win the NFC North?Yes won
- Will the Packers win the NFC North?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.