Middle East · resolved market
Israel strikes Iran by October 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x876e3f74017fff10b2677f8c0b9c7ddcf8f74f147eeee59fff71e7a1928edf19
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,736,646
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,750,262
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,736,646 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 525 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7e7a…565dbacked Yes | 6c | 108,208$6,405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,405.05 | 40 | 10%4 W · 36 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ca…9cbbbacked Yes | 1c | 65,259$699 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$699.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 4c | 47,723$1,948 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,947.91 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x238a…1574backed Yes | 18c | 32,431$5,749 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,749.35 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -76.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd95…8c17backed Yes | 14c | 29,302$4,136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,136.41 | 85 | 38.8%33 W · 52 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +87.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9455…26ffbacked Yes | 1c | 27,542$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0276…19d8backed Yes | 10c | 27,295$2,729 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,729.45 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.21per pick | 19cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Yes | 5c | 27,000$1,230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,230.4 | 170 | 18.2%31 W · 139 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +77.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84c6…c8c8backed Yes | 17c | 26,655$4,474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,473.53 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +140.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed Yes | 4c | 25,405$906 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$905.55 | 432 | 12.5%54 W · 378 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 6c | 24,893$1,579 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,578.65 | 208 | 23.1%48 W · 160 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefa1…2c02backed Yes | 15c | 23,764$3,510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,510.17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbf…4665backed No | 79c | 22,187$17,517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,670.13 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd740…1922backed Yes | 1c | 21,409$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.48 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a52…cecebacked Yes | 17c | 20,000$3,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,400 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee83…f6d7backed Yes | 2c | 19,624$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.91 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e4c…59bebacked Yes | 4c | 18,620$715 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$714.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74db…4ca5backed Yes | 21c | 17,879$3,731 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,730.64 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9419…3aa4backed Yes | 19c | 17,370$3,366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,366 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f9…0007backed Yes | 11c | 17,098$1,842 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,841.9 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1630…e3fdbacked Yes | 19c | 15,677$2,943 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,943.16 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +467.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aaa…f8c9backed No | 78c | 12,321$9,612 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,708.32 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69cb…2320backed Yes | 8c | 12,074$921 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$920.6 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6228…3339backed Yes | 26c | 11,782$3,032 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,031.71 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc27…2719backed Yes | 2c | 11,099$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1287…e491backed Yes | 26c | 10,835$2,796 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,795.72 | 47 | 17%8 W · 39 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed No | 75c | 10,244$7,708 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,536.09 | 353 | 47%166 W · 187 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8fb…19dcbacked Yes | 28c | 10,048$2,804 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,804 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a6…fd55backed Yes | 18c | 10,000$1,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,800 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66b8…b5f0backed Yes | 14c | 10,000$1,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,400 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1ea…6879backed Yes | 21c | 8,906$1,860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,860.04 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1baf…3ae9backed Yes | 11c | 8,756$985 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$985.2 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 20cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x00b7…ab78backed Yes | 17c | 7,459$1,296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,295.74 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b3…e7e1backed Yes | 10c | 6,523$629 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$628.84 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc314…f2cbbacked Yes | 4c | 6,518$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.75 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 23cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bc2…597abacked Yes | 14c | 6,500$910 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$910 | 117 | 28.2%33 W · 84 L | -7.9wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…c87cbacked Yes | 19c | 6,459$1,219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,218.73 | 235 | 25.5%60 W · 175 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 8c | 6,454$537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$536.67 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc53…9754backed Yes | 1c | 6,342$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.08 | 70 | 25.7%18 W · 52 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c3…bd13backed Yes | 3c | 5,858$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.46 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 15c | 5,709$838 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$838.31 | 39 | 12.8%5 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe10…95cbbacked Yes | 3c | 5,591$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.55 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4e…edb0backed Yes | 3c | 5,448$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.3 | 87 | 25.3%22 W · 65 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 19cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf735…2bcabacked Yes | 3c | 5,004$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…67e2backed No | 79c | 4,803$3,815 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$987.59 | 212 | 59.9%127 W · 85 L | +21.8wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x71f8…55ffbacked Yes | 18c | 4,710$840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$840.1 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ab3…dd6dbacked Yes | 21c | 4,698$983 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$983.28 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c87…9bd4backed No | 73c | 4,451$3,271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,180.04 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc472…ced9backed Yes | 25c | 4,424$1,128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,128 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76c3…5152backed Yes | 23c | 4,303$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e3e…692abacked Yes | 21c | 4,277$879 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$878.55 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -81.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 17c | 4,256$744 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$743.52 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb41…1fffbacked Yes | 18c | 4,204$757 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$756.75 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe617…51bcbacked Yes | 16c | 4,089$648 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$647.85 | 35 | 8.6%3 W · 32 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -83.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 21c | 4,079$873 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$872.8 | 421 | 20.9%88 W · 333 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12bf…ddafbacked Yes | 15c | 4,003$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$589.54 | 156 | 26.9%42 W · 114 L | -10.6wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -38%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x950a…b380backed Yes | 2c | 3,710$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.43 | 67 | 3%2 W · 65 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -73%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6a…f9d0backed Yes | 20c | 3,609$704 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$703.75 | 126 | 34.9%44 W · 82 L | +8.8wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x98dc…9949backed Yes | 14c | 3,522$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510.22 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34cd…4231backed Yes | 21c | 3,452$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.16per pick | 27cpaid | +96.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf5…661dbacked Yes | 20c | 3,386$685 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$684.63 | 145 | 20.7%30 W · 115 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -40%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe71f…283abacked Yes | 21c | 3,287$675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$674.87 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c61…f10dbacked Yes | 4c | 3,279$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x788f…19bbbacked Yes | 2c | 3,217$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed Yes | 25c | 3,192$802 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$802.25 | 276 | 43.5%120 W · 156 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed No | 77c | 3,126$2,422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$704.73 | 284 | 27.8%79 W · 205 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked Yes | 18c | 3,000$545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$545 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54bb…35e5backed Yes | 18c | 3,000$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c87…fce0backed Yes | 8c | 2,967$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.32 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 28cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb728…fc92backed Yes | 17c | 2,834$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -2.8wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d94…fd50backed Yes | 17c | 2,773$463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$463.26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f09…2848backed Yes | 19c | 2,709$517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$516.93 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +15%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x700c…9368backed Yes | 24c | 2,662$635 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$635 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4491…2083backed Yes | 9c | 2,641$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb2…abeabacked Yes | 0c | 2,507$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x011d…3d2fbacked Yes | 8c | 2,428$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.96 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.19per pick | 9cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c68…f2a8backed Yes | 6c | 2,311$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.46 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 16cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f6…09dcbacked Yes | 21c | 2,252$471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471.26 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -4.5wins | -0.34per pick | 42cpaid | -86.4%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x66e9…81cdbacked Yes | 31c | 2,140$659 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$658.63 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes | 15c | 2,100$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.99 | 198 | 29.3%58 W · 140 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6da8…6d23backed Yes | 15c | 2,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b0…881dbacked Yes | 11c | 2,000$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a85…1811backed Yes | 21c | 1,975$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.81 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…eec6backed No | 78c | 1,941$1,508 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$433.26 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf252…4436backed Yes | 14c | 1,907$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a40…800ebacked Yes | 3c | 1,890$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.18 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 2c | 1,852$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.15 | 125 | 24.8%31 W · 94 L | -9.5wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x338b…d67bbacked Yes | 11c | 1,837$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa84f…bc44backed No | 78c | 1,817$1,425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.87 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7994…c512backed Yes | 20c | 1,785$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.71 | 115 | 37.4%43 W · 72 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ece…6244backed Yes | 16c | 1,761$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.14per pick | 21cpaid | -87.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9f…2a46backed Yes | 14c | 1,717$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.84 | 82 | 19.5%16 W · 66 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97b7…5f0fbacked Yes | 6c | 1,667$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d8c…18aabacked Yes | 14c | 1,663$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.79 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf59f…3be9backed No | 75c | 1,661$1,252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.59 | 157 | 43.9%69 W · 88 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05ac…2187backed Yes | 3c | 1,631$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.1 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -2.4wins | -0.12per pick | 16cpaid | -91.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xadeb…59e0backed Yes | 7c | 1,629$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 22cpaid | -87.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3960…0975backed Yes | 3c | 1,602$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.64 | 41 | 12.2%5 W · 36 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b3…eeb2backed No | 78c | 1,600$1,246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.8 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b48…fdcabacked Yes | 3c | 1,556$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.