TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Israel strikes Iran by October 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,736,646
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,750,262

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,736,646 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 525 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7e7a…565dbacked Yes6c108,208$6,405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,405.054010%4 W · 36 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-71.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe6ca…9cbbbacked Yes1c65,259$699 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$699.4810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes4c47,723$1,948 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,947.9142818.7%80 W · 348 L+9.5wins+0.02per pick16cpaid-28.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x238a…1574backed Yes18c32,431$5,749 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,749.35911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick17cpaid-76.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd95…8c17backed Yes14c29,302$4,136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,136.418538.8%33 W · 52 L+5.4wins+0.06per pick32cpaid+87.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9455…26ffbacked Yes1c27,542$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.0210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0276…19d8backed Yes10c27,295$2,729 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,729.45540%2 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.21per pick19cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfd66…fb6dbacked Yes5c27,000$1,230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,230.417018.2%31 W · 139 L+5.8wins+0.03per pick15cpaid+77.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x84c6…c8c8backed Yes17c26,655$4,474 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,473.531450%7 W · 7 L+2.0wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+140.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0d05…6a81backed Yes4c25,405$906 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$905.5543212.5%54 W · 378 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-11.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9178…a2b2backed Yes6c24,893$1,579 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,578.6520823.1%48 W · 160 L+7.3wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xefa1…2c02backed Yes15c23,764$3,510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,510.1720%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0cbf…4665backed No79c22,187$17,517 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,670.136546.2%30 W · 35 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-4.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd740…1922backed Yes1c21,409$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.48425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick18cpaid-28.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a52…cecebacked Yes17c20,000$3,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,40070%0 W · 7 L-2.1wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xee83…f6d7backed Yes2c19,624$339 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$338.91200%0 W · 20 L-1.6wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1e4c…59bebacked Yes4c18,620$715 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$714.6420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x74db…4ca5backed Yes21c17,879$3,731 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,730.641040%4 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.10per pick30cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9419…3aa4backed Yes19c17,370$3,366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,36640%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf6f9…0007backed Yes11c17,098$1,842 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,841.93732.4%12 W · 25 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick27cpaid-15.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1630…e3fdbacked Yes19c15,677$2,943 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,943.162025%5 W · 15 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick27cpaid+467.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5aaa…f8c9backed No78c12,321$9,612 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,708.32333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick56cpaid-57.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x69cb…2320backed Yes8c12,074$921 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$920.640%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6228…3339backed Yes26c11,782$3,032 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,031.7120%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc27…2719backed Yes2c11,099$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1287…e491backed Yes26c10,835$2,796 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,795.724717%8 W · 39 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick15cpaid+17.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d9f…9790backed No75c10,244$7,708 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,536.0935347%166 W · 187 L+5.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8fb…19dcbacked Yes28c10,048$2,804 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,8042611.5%3 W · 23 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-8.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd3a6…fd55backed Yes18c10,000$1,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,8003625%9 W · 27 L-3.0wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-48.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x66b8…b5f0backed Yes14c10,000$1,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,4001838.9%7 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick39cpaid-22.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc1ea…6879backed Yes21c8,906$1,860 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,860.04520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-59.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1baf…3ae9backed Yes11c8,756$985 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$985.2166.3%1 W · 15 L-2.2wins-0.14per pick20cpaid-52.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x00b7…ab78backed Yes17c7,459$1,296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,295.74616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.16per pick33cpaid-52.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc5b3…e7e1backed Yes10c6,523$629 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$628.8430%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc314…f2cbbacked Yes4c6,518$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.75540%2 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.17per pick23cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4bc2…597abacked Yes14c6,500$910 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91011728.2%33 W · 84 L-7.9wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-45.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe471…c87cbacked Yes19c6,459$1,219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,218.7323525.5%60 W · 175 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick24cpaid-5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed Yes8c6,454$537 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$536.6748923.5%115 W · 374 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-46.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfc53…9754backed Yes1c6,342$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.087025.7%18 W · 52 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-7.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd3c3…bd13backed Yes3c5,858$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.4660%0 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed Yes15c5,709$838 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$838.313912.8%5 W · 34 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick14cpaid-55.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe10…95cbbacked Yes3c5,591$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.551323.1%3 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-16.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d4e…edb0backed Yes3c5,448$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.38725.3%22 W · 65 L+5.8wins+0.07per pick19cpaid+3.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf735…2bcabacked Yes3c5,004$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.7220%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd44e…67e2backed No79c4,803$3,815 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$987.5921259.9%127 W · 85 L+21.8wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+21.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x71f8…55ffbacked Yes18c4,710$840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$840.1119.1%1 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick6cpaid-35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8ab3…dd6dbacked Yes21c4,698$983 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$983.281338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-26.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c87…9bd4backed No73c4,451$3,271 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,180.043050%15 W · 15 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-14.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc472…ced9backed Yes25c4,424$1,128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1281414.3%2 W · 12 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick14cpaid-44.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x76c3…5152backed Yes23c4,303$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0002733.3%9 W · 18 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-9.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0e3e…692abacked Yes21c4,277$879 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$878.55714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-81.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes17c4,256$744 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$743.5251138.7%198 W · 313 L+18.7wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfb41…1fffbacked Yes18c4,204$757 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$756.75333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-46.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe617…51bcbacked Yes16c4,089$648 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$647.85358.6%3 W · 32 L+0.1wins0.00per pick8cpaid-83.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes21c4,079$873 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$872.842120.9%88 W · 333 L-0.3wins0.00per pick21cpaid-39.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12bf…ddafbacked Yes15c4,003$590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$589.5415626.9%42 W · 114 L-10.6wins-0.07per pick34cpaid-38%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x950a…b380backed Yes2c3,710$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.43673%2 W · 65 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-73%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf6a…f9d0backed Yes20c3,609$704 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$703.7512634.9%44 W · 82 L+8.8wins+0.07per pick28cpaid-3.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x98dc…9949backed Yes14c3,522$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$510.223122.6%7 W · 24 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick21cpaid-41.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x34cd…4231backed Yes21c3,452$720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7201442.9%6 W · 8 L+2.2wins+0.16per pick27cpaid+96.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xdaf5…661dbacked Yes20c3,386$685 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$684.6314520.7%30 W · 115 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-40%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe71f…283abacked Yes21c3,287$675 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$674.87450%2 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+34.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c61…f10dbacked Yes4c3,279$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x788f…19bbbacked Yes2c3,217$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2525…b919backed Yes25c3,192$802 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$802.2527643.5%120 W · 156 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-11.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x24c8…23e1backed No77c3,126$2,422 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$704.7328427.8%79 W · 205 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-37.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf519…906bbacked Yes18c3,000$545 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5452839.3%11 W · 17 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-17.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x54bb…35e5backed Yes18c3,000$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$550825%2 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-58.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6c87…fce0backed Yes8c2,967$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.321338.5%5 W · 8 L+1.4wins+0.11per pick28cpaid+36.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb728…fc92backed Yes17c2,834$488 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4882924.1%7 W · 22 L-2.8wins-0.10per pick34cpaid-53.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8d94…fd50backed Yes17c2,773$463 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$463.2620%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f09…2848backed Yes19c2,709$517 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$516.935437%20 W · 34 L+2.7wins+0.05per pick32cpaid+15%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x700c…9368backed Yes24c2,662$635 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$635825%2 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-56.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4491…2083backed Yes9c2,641$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfcb2…abeabacked Yes0c2,507$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103339.4%13 W · 20 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+21.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x011d…3d2fbacked Yes8c2,428$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.961127.3%3 W · 8 L+2.0wins+0.19per pick9cpaid+46.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7c68…f2a8backed Yes6c2,311$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.461127.3%3 W · 8 L+1.3wins+0.11per pick16cpaid+51.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x77f6…09dcbacked Yes21c2,252$471 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$471.26137.7%1 W · 12 L-4.5wins-0.34per pick42cpaid-86.4%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x66e9…81cdbacked Yes31c2,140$659 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$658.6330%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes15c2,100$307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306.9919829.3%58 W · 140 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick25cpaid+5.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6da8…6d23backed Yes15c2,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-13.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6b0…881dbacked Yes11c2,000$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2103511.4%4 W · 31 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick10cpaid-42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a85…1811backed Yes21c1,975$413 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$412.814630.4%14 W · 32 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-36.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d3e…eec6backed No78c1,941$1,508 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$433.261154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick51cpaid-24.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf252…4436backed Yes14c1,907$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261.5610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a40…800ebacked Yes3c1,890$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.18560%3 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.21per pick39cpaid+31.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes2c1,852$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.1512524.8%31 W · 94 L-9.5wins-0.08per pick32cpaid-47.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x338b…d67bbacked Yes11c1,837$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20040%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa84f…bc44backed No78c1,817$1,425 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$391.875248.1%25 W · 27 L+0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-9.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7994…c512backed Yes20c1,785$364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$363.7111537.4%43 W · 72 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7ece…6244backed Yes16c1,761$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274147.1%1 W · 13 L-1.9wins-0.14per pick21cpaid-87.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbf9f…2a46backed Yes14c1,717$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235.848219.5%16 W · 66 L-0.3wins0.00per pick20cpaid+13.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x97b7…5f0fbacked Yes6c1,667$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d8c…18aabacked Yes14c1,663$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.79100%0 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf59f…3be9backed No75c1,661$1,252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$408.5915743.9%69 W · 88 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+23.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x05ac…2187backed Yes3c1,631$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.1214.8%1 W · 20 L-2.4wins-0.12per pick16cpaid-91.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xadeb…59e0backed Yes7c1,629$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110147.1%1 W · 13 L-2.1wins-0.15per pick22cpaid-87.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3960…0975backed Yes3c1,602$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.644112.2%5 W · 36 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick14cpaid-17.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7b3…eeb2backed No78c1,600$1,246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$353.81957.9%11 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b48…fdcabacked Yes3c1,556$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick21cpaid-60.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.