TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Trump imposes 25% tariff on Canada and Mexico before March?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$922,755
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$953,385

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $922,755 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 343 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa3d3…d424backed No9c187,345$16,198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,198.191136.4%4 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.09per pick27cpaid+38.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked No0c87,602$344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$343.656410.9%7 W · 57 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick16cpaid-47.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb35b…fc08backed No3c28,044$797 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$797.0140%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a61…2c6bbacked No12c20,689$2,505 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,505.365131.4%16 W · 35 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick28cpaid+81.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe837…739fbacked No9c15,963$1,458 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,458.2560%0 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x030a…acfcbacked Yes74c12,661$9,429 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,231.881145.5%5 W · 6 L+1.6wins+0.14per pick31cpaid+1,107.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf916…9224backed No69c12,000$8,292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,291.65540%2 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.19per pick59cpaid-44.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd8e…f023backed Yes27c9,239$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,739.283043.3%13 W · 17 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid+3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed No7c8,600$631 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$631.3215230.3%46 W · 106 L-18.7wins-0.12per pick43cpaid-30.4%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x9d09…1714backed No0c8,426$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked No10c8,365$821 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$820.6920614.6%30 W · 176 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick13cpaid-18.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3143…81b1backed No61c8,354$5,110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,109.86728.6%2 W · 5 L-2.1wins-0.30per pick59cpaid-51.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xe8ff…c93bbacked No12c8,333$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0001154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x96fb…45fabacked No0c7,685$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked No0c6,811$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.454521.1%5 W · 447 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick0cpaid+156.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6090…19cabacked No1c6,260$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.73728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick26cpaid-27.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x2fe5…4e08backed No0c6,006$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.5366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.46per pick20cpaid+131.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x019e…af1dbacked No51c5,895$3,022 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,022.0360%0 W · 6 L-2.9wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x2bd3…2a3cbacked No5c5,850$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.4620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked No27c5,654$1,538 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,537.87650%38 W · 38 L+6.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+18.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x96b5…f5e7backed No56c5,454$3,073 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,073.13839.5%15 W · 23 L-3.3wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-31.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0aae…c6c4backed No55c5,430$2,980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,979.782055%11 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+27.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x82b1…7579backed Yes50c5,292$2,663 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,629.13366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick53cpaid+50.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cfb…86d5backed Yes55c5,284$2,919 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,364.441145.5%5 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.10per pick36cpaid-7.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5095…c97cbacked Yes24c5,159$1,238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,920.893444.1%15 W · 19 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-14.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x863f…8775backed No11c5,048$555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$555.28922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.15per pick37cpaid-60.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed Yes72c5,030$3,620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,410.3227828.1%78 W · 200 L-6.9wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-32.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x21d9…0e65backed No6c5,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes71c4,502$3,207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,295.048838.6%34 W · 54 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-16.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x57c5…07aabacked No15c4,298$654 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$653.572842.9%12 W · 16 L+1.9wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+16.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd535…fa67backed No28c4,238$1,176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,175.55825%2 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.21per pick46cpaid-50.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6264…9937backed No22c4,108$884 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$883.982725.9%7 W · 20 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-47.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1744…1d2abacked No11c4,000$432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$431.55333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-54.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c4e…e65abacked No15c3,946$598 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$597.95425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-7.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x11a7…336abacked No1c3,907$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb27…4db3backed No2c3,540$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.2372.7%1 W · 36 L-3.0wins-0.08per pick11cpaid-82%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x31a8…46e8backed Yes78c3,509$2,751 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$757.34250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-36.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x5e5b…590dbacked No12c3,366$416 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4161127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.12per pick39cpaid-58%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xeb05…12f8backed No11c3,174$349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$349.1110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ae4…4f84backed No12c3,131$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$370.131729.4%5 W · 12 L-1.5wins-0.09per pick38cpaid-28.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd1ac…08d5backed Yes55c3,000$1,640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,3602240.9%9 W · 13 L+2.0wins+0.09per pick32cpaid+60.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0092…31f2backed Yes37c2,956$1,104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,851.91100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+167.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb6be…fcfebacked No9c2,933$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27514033.6%47 W · 93 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-27.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x745a…64e8backed No14c2,930$419 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$418.7315237.5%57 W · 95 L+8.0wins+0.05per pick32cpaid-2.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xad85…78fcbacked Yes59c2,841$1,664 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,176.811100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+70.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xda47…f40abacked No71c2,807$2,003 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,002.96366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick74cpaid-12%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc99c…5c6bbacked No4c2,801$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.3320%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x49d5…2e07backed Yes64c2,527$1,627 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$900.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+55.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb71a…6fc9backed Yes20c2,494$508 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,985.88450%2 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+66.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x18aa…f6ecbacked No70c2,478$1,744 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,744.3910928.4%31 W · 78 L+6.8wins+0.06per pick22cpaid-13.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0dd0…bc3dbacked Yes29c2,332$666 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,666.092737%10 W · 17 L-0.1wins0.00per pick38cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5754…e515backed No13c2,293$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.77625%19 W · 57 L-7.3wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-18.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa27a…6b26backed No44c2,276$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000.410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6319…adefbacked No14c2,120$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30090%0 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x088f…c9e7backed No40c2,086$832 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$831.513342.4%14 W · 19 L-2.6wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-33.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcd6b…68f5backed No17c2,000$341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3416328.6%18 W · 45 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+14.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde17…b0a9backed No6c1,974$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x516d…03e5backed Yes38c1,863$706 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,157.067254.2%39 W · 33 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+10.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xad28…1601backed No35c1,847$648 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$648.192626.9%7 W · 19 L-3.9wins-0.15per pick42cpaid-43.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x713c…c97fbacked No2c1,839$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d10…dca1backed No4c1,830$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.42250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick25cpaid+9.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc5d…bafabacked No11c1,800$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.89520%1 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick29cpaid-52.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6994…7112backed No68c1,796$1,217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,216.810%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x889e…09e0backed Yes70c1,712$1,205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$507.153342.4%14 W · 19 L+2.8wins+0.08per pick34cpaid-10.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5e73…6697backed Yes78c1,689$1,319 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$369.885244.2%23 W · 29 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0103…067bbacked No76c1,660$1,254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,254.422334.8%8 W · 15 L-1.8wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-34.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1726…9fc2backed Yes67c1,582$1,056 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$525.54366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.15per pick52cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x57c5…28e5backed Yes68c1,578$1,066 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$512.05333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-50.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x45d9…f84bbacked No74c1,500$1,105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,105.116131.1%19 W · 42 L-4.3wins-0.07per pick38cpaid+8.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf0ed…47d8backed No23c1,468$342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$342.2913525.2%34 W · 101 L-0.3wins0.00per pick25cpaid+38.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1316…c716backed Yes23c1,442$329 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,112.87520%1 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick14cpaid-12.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d7e…441fbacked Yes26c1,439$374 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,064.411100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.74per pick26cpaid+284.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5943…2ef2backed No8c1,400$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1052520%5 W · 20 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-30.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdf3f…99c4backed Yes39c1,272$497 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$775.152100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+116.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7124…70c1backed No31c1,264$389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$388.841241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-20.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a3a…ee52backed Yes24c1,226$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$925.712100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+195.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb74b…aadebacked No2c1,111$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.99933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-35%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x30be…8196backed No18c1,107$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.7710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7885…eeaebacked No6c1,100$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67450%2 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+57.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3238…3291backed No73c1,093$793 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$793.0780%0 W · 8 L-5.6wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0x01a4…0064backed Yes66c1,078$710 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$368.383435.3%12 W · 22 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick35cpaid+52.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4392…68c3backed Yes29c1,030$298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$732.04333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick46cpaid+15.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f65…1592backed No72c1,030$737 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$737.233930.8%12 W · 27 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick33cpaid+69%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x95f6…d035backed Yes30c1,015$307 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$708.76250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick24cpaid+65.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5923…a3f7backed No29c1,000$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29020%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa46a…05a0backed No15c1,000$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.15per pick42cpaid+48.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb39b…1427backed No1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick26cpaid-56.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe9b2…447ebacked No23c1,000$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc654…f0debacked Yes38c998.54$384 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$614.85850%4 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-8.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x2cde…5b98backed No7c977.3$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.77225%18 W · 54 L+9.7wins+0.14per pick11cpaid+262.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xb481…bb2cbacked Yes77c974$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.024040%16 W · 24 L-3.5wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-9.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x24c8…23e1backed Yes80c924.32$738 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.7723225%58 W · 174 L-0.7wins0.00per pick25cpaid-35.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x232f…a5afbacked Yes63c883.01$553 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$330.47366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.29per pick38cpaid+38.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x71ed…d338backed Yes35c865.61$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$565.61757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.18per pick39cpaid+36.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xec15…1b1cbacked Yes29c854.73$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$604.73250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick24cpaid+70.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0735…005dbacked No73c843.79$616 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$615.971323.1%3 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick30cpaid-53.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x66b8…b5f0backed No72c841.27$605 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$605.3520%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc7c3…087dbacked Yes66c833.33$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$283.33333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-49.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb869…c4c6backed No11c786$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.46757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.16per pick41cpaid+12.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2741…0865backed No22c776.26$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.4113118.3%24 W · 107 L-6.9wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-36.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.