NFL · resolved market
Will Abdul Carter be the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x32d7ac61f89cc4b78d9eea499d156bafa39ce3dbfd0f4322b0694297646d330c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $305,990
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $276,612
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $305,990 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6d20…a7c9backed No | 70c | 95,108$66,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29,007.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 70cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83bd…148dbacked Yes | 31c | 95,108$29,008 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29,007.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Yes | 0c | 12,002$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.81 | 196 | 9.2%18 W · 178 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked Yes | 9c | 7,256$662 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$662.26 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6d…5d26backed Yes | 8c | 5,641$477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$477.15 | 17 | 88.2%15 W · 2 L | +5.3wins | +0.31per pick | 57cpaid | +49.5%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d9…dd01backed Yes | 3c | 5,444$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.44 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed Yes | 1c | 3,625$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.53 | 149 | 26.2%39 W · 110 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 32c | 3,112$1,010 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,009.58 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Yes | 5c | 2,667$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.05 | 228 | 38.6%88 W · 140 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x614e…b703backed Yes | 3c | 2,600$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6337…1ebbbacked Yes | 26c | 2,599$674 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$673.66 | 186 | 29.6%55 W · 131 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0298…93c4backed Yes | 19c | 2,174$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.01 | 283 | 37.8%107 W · 176 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 3c | 1,820$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.35 | 58 | 15.5%9 W · 49 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…1d05backed Yes | 7c | 1,530$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.11 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b47…b53ebacked Yes | 5c | 1,400$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc87…9e25backed Yes | 3c | 1,224$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x542c…f12bbacked Yes | 8c | 1,078$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.13 | 97 | 24.7%24 W · 73 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed No | 65c | 1,058$692 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.95 | 343 | 49.3%169 W · 174 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 3c | 784.94$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.66 | 180 | 9.4%17 W · 163 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04ec…580fbacked Yes | 36c | 750.2$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.02 | 104 | 34.6%36 W · 68 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…65fdbacked Yes | 10c | 694.98$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.49 | 62 | 25.8%16 W · 46 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52c6…773ebacked Yes | 3c | 681.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe75f…edafbacked Yes | 32c | 669.99$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.12 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x461a…4030backed Yes | 5c | 650$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.15 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 25c | 633.13$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.38 | 150 | 8%12 W · 138 L | -9.7wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -74%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 5c | 632.88$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.32 | 51 | 7.8%4 W · 47 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80c5…168abacked Yes | 10c | 507.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 73 | 45.2%33 W · 40 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf596…026cbacked Yes | 25c | 468.19$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55b4…80eabacked Yes | 17c | 400$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.1 | 101 | 4%4 W · 97 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -87.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x562a…3d9cbacked Yes | 17c | 363.6$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.81 | 38 | 18.4%7 W · 31 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff3…b24dbacked No | 65c | 362$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.4 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes | 17c | 353.59$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.49 | 247 | 38.1%94 W · 153 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa5…8f79backed Yes | 6c | 310.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8583…a5dbbacked Yes | 6c | 310$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.32 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa4a…0502backed Yes | 27c | 304.33$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.69 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | -5.6wins | -0.16per pick | 35cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 7c | 237.72$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.63 | 528 | 28.6%151 W · 377 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98cb…aa35backed Yes | 35c | 235.59$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.73 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb5b…69ebbacked No | 66c | 225.79$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.79 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…83f5backed Yes | 8c | 190.78$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 153 | 32%49 W · 104 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd74d…85e9backed No | 79c | 185$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.96 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd44…2a19backed Yes | 35c | 173.41$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 74 | 55.4%41 W · 33 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38f0…12d8backed Yes | 14c | 164.24$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed No | 62c | 144.73$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.56 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +9.9wins | +0.22per pick | 29cpaid | +235.8%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x1e20…f3e7backed Yes | 35c | 142.44$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed Yes | 13c | 119.68$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.85 | 69 | 13%9 W · 60 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a7…05d6backed No | 66c | 111$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.22 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +40%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…51babacked Yes | 19c | 101.41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8524…7d91backed No | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.55 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +55.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 415 | 40.2%167 W · 248 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7167…8ea3backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f57…e8b4backed No | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe87f…9d9bbacked Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.9 | 50 | 28%14 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5b8…e965backed Yes | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x927a…bdc9backed Yes | 32c | 90$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0710…42a2backed No | 67c | 80$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.06 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.8wins | +0.31per pick | 58cpaid | +64.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2023…2d55backed No | 68c | 72$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.37 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -59%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff37…049cbacked No | 67c | 65.16$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 72c | 62.75$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 80 | 47.5%38 W · 42 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5af…a2febacked No | 79c | 51$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.66 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd50…c17bbacked No | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.45 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked No | 70c | 40.16$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.21 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4b4…16bdbacked No | 73c | 38.61$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 33c | 37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 71 | 23.9%17 W · 54 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc354…de11backed No | 73c | 35.15$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.42 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa686…31c6backed Yes | 41c | 33.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -50%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e26…cdf1backed No | 78c | 28.34$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.28 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3bf…4cc3backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.41 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3975…626abacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.62 | 91 | 81.3%74 W · 17 L | +15.9wins | +0.17per pick | 64cpaid | +26%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Abdul Carter be the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft?this page
- Will Cameron Ward be the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft?Yes won
- Will Jalen Milroe be the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft?No won
- Will Jaxson Dart be the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft?No won
- Will Kelvin Banks Jr. be the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft?No won
- Will Mason Graham be the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft?No won
- Will Mykel Williams be the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft?No won
- Will Shedeur Sanders be the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft?No won
- Will Travis Hunter be the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft?No won
- Will Will Campbell be the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.