NFL · resolved market
Will Travis Hunter be the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x59cb0b4fc554fee7fd8e4ed54770d964249b44b2e53e48f54a922f0c3ae663e5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $201,490
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $126,691
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $201,490 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0979…9402backed Yes | 13c | 36,000$4,680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,680 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d27…76d8backed Yes | 0c | 14,625$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.32 | 176 | 9.1%16 W · 160 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -43%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b6b…3ba7backed Yes | 0c | 7,785$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.36 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…5b91backed Yes | 0c | 6,608$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -3.1wins | -0.21per pick | 27cpaid | -77%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 32 | 0%0 W · 32 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0298…93c4backed Yes | 9c | 4,306$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.28 | 283 | 37.8%107 W · 176 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Yes | 5c | 4,050$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.22 | 228 | 38.6%88 W · 140 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes | 5c | 2,479$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.15 | 247 | 38.1%94 W · 153 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,531$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 196 | 9.2%18 W · 178 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,473$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 243 | 0.8%2 W · 241 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…83f5backed Yes | 8c | 1,465$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.33 | 153 | 32%49 W · 104 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x562a…3d9cbacked Yes | 18c | 1,118$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.68 | 38 | 18.4%7 W · 31 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d9…dd01backed Yes | 12c | 964.52$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.02 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 7c | 790.9$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.28 | 528 | 28.6%151 W · 377 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed Yes | 11c | 761.63$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.17 | 69 | 13%9 W · 60 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 12c | 677.92$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.11 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e20…f3e7backed Yes | 11c | 445.49$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 76c | 428.4$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.91 | 415 | 40.2%167 W · 248 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2034…8daebacked Yes | 16c | 396$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.3 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43e2…88bcbacked Yes | 8c | 390$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.69 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc87…9e25backed Yes | 8c | 380.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 7c | 329.07$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.95 | 50 | 8%4 W · 46 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x809f…ad08backed Yes | 7c | 316.65$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.62 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +47%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeeca…9826backed Yes | 32c | 313.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87e9…67c6backed Yes | 13c | 283.5$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.13 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff3…b24dbacked Yes | 11c | 259.01$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.71 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 11c | 245.98$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.19 | 150 | 8%12 W · 138 L | -9.7wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -74%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 5c | 242.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 12c | 229.78$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.59 | 268 | 30.6%82 W · 186 L | -29.2wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2023…2d55backed Yes | 12c | 208.82$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.43 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -59%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…77c7backed Yes | 14c | 208$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.22 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…2fdbbacked Yes | 16c | 199.09$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.15 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 17c | 198.62$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.04 | 314 | 39.8%125 W · 189 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x648c…09c6backed Yes | 12c | 191.33$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.71 | 51 | 37.3%19 W · 32 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93b4…cbfdbacked Yes | 13c | 180$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.82 | 44 | 34.1%15 W · 29 L | -5.9wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 13c | 158.96$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.82 | 180 | 9.4%17 W · 163 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…c585backed Yes | 8c | 158.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa728…5a45backed Yes | 8c | 154$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -37%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a5e…c869backed No | 80c | 154$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.14 | 117 | 38.5%45 W · 72 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe77c…a67abacked Yes | 19c | 150.11$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb6f…25f0backed No | 62c | 127.37$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.4 | 79 | 48.1%38 W · 41 L | -6.9wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x80c5…168abacked Yes | 44c | 113.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 73 | 45.2%33 W · 40 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 20c | 111.94$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.98 | 77 | 18.2%14 W · 63 L | -11.0wins | -0.14per pick | 33cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…3df7backed Yes | 20c | 101.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 83 | 53%44 W · 39 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7167…8ea3backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf5b8…e965backed Yes | 31c | 99.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 18c | 90.2$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 99 | 47.5%47 W · 52 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e09…fd64backed Yes | 13c | 89.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b7a…4817backed Yes | 24c | 70$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf596…026cbacked Yes | 21c | 54.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cf4…4c5abacked Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38d5…063cbacked Yes | 28c | 49.63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf934…9f73backed Yes | 32c | 47.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -3.0wins | -0.16per pick | 28cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xea3e…b956backed No | 70c | 42.86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 243 | 51.4%125 W · 118 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8673…a726backed Yes | 29c | 40.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68ca…68b0backed Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…7f26backed No | 69c | 27.37$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.48 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 51cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3bf…4cc3backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb4…6cbfbacked No | 69c | 15.94$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Travis Hunter be the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft?this page
- Will Abdul Carter be the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft?No won
- Will Cameron Ward be the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft?Yes won
- Will Jalen Milroe be the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft?No won
- Will Jaxson Dart be the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft?No won
- Will Kelvin Banks Jr. be the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft?No won
- Will Mason Graham be the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft?No won
- Will Mykel Williams be the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft?No won
- Will Shedeur Sanders be the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft?No won
- Will Will Campbell be the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.