TailMyPicks
Menu
Market

NFL · resolved market

Will Shedeur Sanders be the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$627,207
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$592,297

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $627,207 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 154 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x011f…1122backed Yes0c211,999$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23614926.2%39 W · 110 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-34.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0979…9402backed Yes13c77,000$10,010 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,01020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2929…d0d5backed Yes12c71,244$8,549 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,549.2810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x542c…f12bbacked Yes10c6,589$688 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$687.79724.7%24 W · 73 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick21cpaid+48.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes0c5,116$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.23320%0 W · 32 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd398…46d7backed Yes38c2,710$1,021 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,021.4225643.8%112 W · 144 L+14.6wins+0.06per pick38cpaid-11.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Yes0c2,467$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.981969.2%18 W · 178 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick11cpaid-67.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2765…7ee4backed Yes7c2,317$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.5822838.6%88 W · 140 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-18.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa4a…0502backed Yes12c2,117$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.73619.4%7 W · 29 L-5.6wins-0.16per pick35cpaid-66.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Yes52c2,052$1,067 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,067.4115252.6%80 W · 72 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+17.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x97a0…1509backed Yes5c1,966$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-29.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe8ce…78e9backed Yes50c1,900$941 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$940.510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d56…88a9backed Yes50c1,900$941 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$940.510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d4b…559cbacked Yes17c1,323$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.991020%2 W · 8 L-2.6wins-0.26per pick46cpaid-61.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xebff…d88cbacked Yes4c1,306$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.11225%3 W · 9 L+1.0wins+0.08per pick17cpaid+155%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0298…93c4backed Yes18c1,184$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.2828337.8%107 W · 176 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-10.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed Yes3c1,101$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.784427.3%12 W · 32 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-17.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb678…f74dbacked Yes1c1,010$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.041118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick23cpaid-62.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe023…5871backed No45c1,000$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5501100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+122.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc30c…6e59backed Yes55c1,000$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1950…015ebacked No45c1,000$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5501100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+122.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2fca…9e32backed Yes55c1,000$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x39c7…f049backed Yes45c968$436 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$435.610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfff0…d216backed Yes45c968$436 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$435.610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e8a…1384backed No55c968$532 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$435.6250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a4d…64dbbacked No55c968$532 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$435.6250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x88de…bce5backed Yes56c953$534 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$533.6810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x28fe…632cbacked No46c953$438 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$514.621100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+117.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a01…d891backed No44c953$419 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$533.681100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+127.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb5e5…80d0backed Yes54c953$515 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$514.6210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf75e…a861backed No52c950$494 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4561100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa6a…e1fbbacked No49c950$466 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$484.5250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2773…66c9backed No49c950$466 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$484.5250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc783…f991backed No52c950$494 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4561100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes17c858.44$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.226830.6%82 W · 186 L-29.2wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-43.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes23c797.54$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.452828.6%151 W · 377 L+1.8wins0.00per pick28cpaid-27.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6bcc…f8b2backed Yes4c667.35$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254533.3%15 W · 30 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-25.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcbbc…ea5abacked Yes60c664.81$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2370…0e10backed Yes54c562.58$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.241809.4%17 W · 163 L-10.7wins-0.06per pick15cpaid-59.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x003d…7a58backed No41c452.38$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$268.51050%5 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-10.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x68d9…00edbacked Yes21c400$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$846827.9%19 W · 49 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick31cpaid+62.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes5c384.68$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.38517.8%4 W · 47 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick10cpaid-67.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed No80c383.36$307 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.754546.7%21 W · 24 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-16.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f41…83f5backed No57c373.61$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.1215332%49 W · 104 L-8.6wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-38.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5628…abbcbacked Yes12c370$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.42846.4%13 W · 15 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe77c…a67abacked Yes50c358.36$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.091717.6%3 W · 14 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick23cpaid-61.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb293…cb90backed Yes9c334.84$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.496913%9 W · 60 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick15cpaid-25.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes48c254.45$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.9741540.2%167 W · 248 L-7.8wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-19.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x87e9…67c6backed Yes8c250$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.57243.1%31 W · 41 L+3.5wins+0.05per pick38cpaid-20.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x17e5…3d19backed Yes15c220$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.21526.7%4 W · 11 L-2.5wins-0.17per pick44cpaid-57.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf8d9…dd01backed No49c208.1$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.172835.7%10 W · 18 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+21.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x648c…09c6backed Yes57c200$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1145137.3%19 W · 32 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x81f5…70afbacked Yes50c171.01$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.1211446.5%53 W · 61 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf863…82ccbacked Yes43c140$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.22152.4%11 W · 10 L-0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac1b…a1bfbacked Yes51c117.32$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.1810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7eb7…87a7backed No42c116.58$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.531100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+137.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd46b…5dabbacked No39c110$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.63633.3%12 W · 24 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-11.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f4f…b4b3backed No40c107.04$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.798837.5%33 W · 55 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+34.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked Yes19c106.28$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.921508%12 W · 138 L-9.7wins-0.06per pick14cpaid-74%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x745a…64e8backed No42c104.64$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.727123.9%17 W · 54 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick30cpaid-32.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x57ee…7f26backed No49c101.96$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.21per pick51cpaid+13.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x946f…6a27backed No57c100$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick39cpaid-12.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes14c100$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146832.4%22 W · 46 L+0.1wins0.00per pick32cpaid-33.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e9a…484abacked No48c97.4$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.71250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick61cpaid+4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes37c96.52$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.1431540%126 W · 189 L-15.7wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-22.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3a9c…f335backed Yes43c95$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e96…9da8backed No48c84.9$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.15250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcceb…f030backed No51c83.28$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.428037.5%30 W · 50 L-10.4wins-0.13per pick51cpaid-27.8%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x1570…c893backed Yes56c82.02$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.93333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.25per pick59cpaid-52.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeba0…6b61backed Yes54c81.8$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.1710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f23…c7d0backed No54c80$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.82412.5%3 W · 21 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick9cpaid-74.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb679…dcd1backed Yes54c79.46$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.9110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c56…7b51backed No47c79.28$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.651100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+110.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9cea…e0acbacked Yes45c78.53$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35560%3 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick61cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xafda…2905backed No48c73.13$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.031100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc10b…2eecbacked Yes61c70.75$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.1630%0 W · 3 L-2.0wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd5eb…8124backed No48c68.96$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.861100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a1a…74d8backed Yes53c67.91$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed No39c66.9$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.9712239.3%48 W · 74 L+5.5wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+87.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe0a2…a349backed Yes59c65$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.353925.6%10 W · 29 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-45.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1a34…967ebacked No48c64.69$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.641100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfdd6…a130backed No47c64.65$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.12250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid+5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5bf…1ef5backed No48c64.06$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.312100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+74.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x342d…4953backed No45c63.61$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.981100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+122.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d3b…f1cabacked Yes61c62.93$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.3910%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0334…cd75backed Yes56c61.55$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.4310%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x590a…c498backed No46c61.51$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.062100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+159.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xeb07…3ffabacked Yes53c61.34$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.5120%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf934…9f73backed Yes39c60$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.31811.1%2 W · 16 L-3.0wins-0.16per pick28cpaid-58.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x93b4…cbfdbacked Yes50c60$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304434.1%15 W · 29 L-5.9wins-0.13per pick48cpaid-39.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x4ec1…2e6ebacked No41c59.83$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.31100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+143.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa671…1e55backed Yes62c58.39$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.2250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+28.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe747…e137backed Yes57c57.36$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.65250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+19%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb7d6…5f0abacked Yes53c56.12$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.75250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+25.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc981…330fbacked Yes54c55.02$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.71333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick54cpaid-30%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2830…f7a6backed Yes62c54.34$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.69366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick46cpaid+78.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe3e6…12fbbacked No46c51.7$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.91250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid+8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes21c50.1$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.529947.5%47 W · 52 L-0.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid-10.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7804…7025backed Yes40c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203551.4%18 W · 17 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick47cpaid-3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa8af…cb36backed No47c49.24$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.11100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+112.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.