TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Commanders vs. Buccaneers

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Commandersof Commanders, Buccaneers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,031,295
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,131,553

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,031,295 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 718 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe6a2…6af8backed Commanders46c301,643$137,796 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163,847.1112570.4%88 W · 37 L+12.8wins+0.10per pick60cpaid+15.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2fe6…ab9dbacked Commanders49c187,227$92,142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95,085.4520634.5%71 W · 135 L-0.2wins0.00per pick35cpaid-24.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd38a…8d26backed Commanders41c170,707$69,990 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100,716.891741.2%7 W · 10 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick51cpaid-14.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xad3e…4422backed Buccaneers54c162,074$87,747 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87,747.233650%18 W · 18 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-9.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1638…339bbacked Buccaneers58c123,261$71,871 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71,871.027041.4%29 W · 41 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-10.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1484…cafebacked Commanders59c44,010$25,890 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,120.024755.3%26 W · 21 L+5.0wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+4.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb3f9…2aa8backed Commanders52c42,895$22,105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,790.0129059.7%173 W · 117 L+14.4wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+7.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2863…0e3ebacked Commanders49c41,302$20,292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,009.21833.3%6 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-34.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d45…b661backed Commanders44c38,814$17,148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,666.568218.3%15 W · 67 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick14cpaid-23.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd398…c487backed Buccaneers60c37,149$22,289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,289.214634.8%16 W · 30 L-8.7wins-0.19per pick54cpaid-37%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0x4cc3…7552backed Commanders40c37,010$14,798 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,212.1525137.5%94 W · 157 L-18.6wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-22.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x31c5…ede4backed Commanders40c36,732$14,553 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,179.4316545.5%75 W · 90 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+12.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2cc0…f722backed Buccaneers59c36,484$21,591 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,590.569259.8%55 W · 37 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1a87…4e00backed Buccaneers60c34,000$20,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,4001942.1%8 W · 11 L-1.6wins-0.08per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Commanders57c32,920$18,794 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,126.6160049.3%296 W · 304 L+21.0wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+3.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9483…39b2backed Buccaneers54c27,806$15,096 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,096.51947.4%9 W · 10 L-2.2wins-0.12per pick59cpaid-25.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x79a1…5801backed Buccaneers56c19,000$10,546 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,545.7510768.2%73 W · 34 L+9.6wins+0.09per pick59cpaid+12%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb35b…fc08backed Buccaneers59c17,885$10,590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,589.7717823%41 W · 137 L-5.1wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-48.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xea79…a9ccbacked Buccaneers57c16,105$9,181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,181.362744.4%12 W · 15 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-30.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa84b…5055backed Buccaneers69c15,766$10,833 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,833.333976.9%30 W · 9 L+4.2wins+0.11per pick66cpaid+10.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xf519…906bbacked Commanders40c15,000$6,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,999.917042.9%30 W · 40 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick38cpaid-2.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe77f…4374backed Commanders57c14,537$8,348 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,189.313135.5%11 W · 20 L-2.8wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-30.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0473…b5bfbacked Commanders50c14,063$6,968 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,094.91100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+101.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a64…4430backed Commanders51c14,057$7,189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,868.5922638.9%88 W · 138 L-1.0wins0.00per pick39cpaid-22.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x02f5…18a3backed Buccaneers61c13,715$8,366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,366.131030%3 W · 7 L+1.4wins+0.14per pick16cpaid+134%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4528…9e8ebacked Buccaneers61c13,122$8,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,000450%2 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-31.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9a8c…ba13backed Buccaneers61c13,044$7,957 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,956.57650%3 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-20.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0362…9661backed Commanders72c12,953$9,339 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,614.53141.9%13 W · 18 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-36.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1ac…08d5backed Buccaneers9c12,372$1,112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,111.9412934.9%45 W · 84 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe0f3…d82cbacked Commanders41c11,486$4,708 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,777.459949.5%49 W · 50 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-14.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9981…dec4backed Buccaneers56c11,418$6,394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,394.295472.2%39 W · 15 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick68cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbf05…70dabacked Buccaneers61c10,702$6,476 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,475.5414763.9%94 W · 53 L+12.0wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+14.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x670d…0825backed Commanders40c8,350$3,340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,0107037.1%26 W · 44 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5faf…27bbbacked Buccaneers60c7,500$4,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,5007857.7%45 W · 33 L+3.8wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+2.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6919…5effbacked Buccaneers56c7,258$4,063 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,063.454852.1%25 W · 23 L-0.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa329…b8ecbacked Buccaneers54c7,092$3,830 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,829.55250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+29.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x744b…6132backed Commanders37c6,783$2,529 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,254.072245.5%10 W · 12 L-0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa974…ef79backed Commanders73c6,298$4,609 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,688.53844.7%17 W · 21 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+52.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked Buccaneers59c6,000$3,540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,539.9941540.2%167 W · 248 L-7.8wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-19.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d2a…ca37backed Buccaneers61c5,744$3,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,500560%3 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+15.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xea3e…b956backed Commanders54c5,522$2,972 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,550.124351.4%125 W · 118 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-11.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3ff9…bb89backed Commanders44c5,500$2,440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,0609952.5%52 W · 47 L-7.4wins-0.07per pick60cpaid-15.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa37f…8e2dbacked Buccaneers3c5,165$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.08366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick51cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4673…d99bbacked Buccaneers60c5,000$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,00028556.5%161 W · 124 L+9.3wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa613…d494backed Buccaneers60c4,922$2,953 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,953.238856.8%50 W · 38 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f44…3ae9backed Commanders41c4,878$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,878.052128.6%6 W · 15 L-2.5wins-0.12per pick41cpaid-42.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xecbe…42ffbacked Commanders44c4,851$2,146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,705.0733328.5%95 W · 238 L+16.7wins+0.05per pick24cpaid+19.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd398…46d7backed Commanders49c4,614$2,261 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,352.9725643.8%112 W · 144 L+14.6wins+0.06per pick38cpaid-11.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd94f…8936backed Commanders48c4,000$1,920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,080580%4 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.20per pick60cpaid+34.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2bee…4414backed Commanders40c3,912$1,580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,331.61366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.41per pick26cpaid+168.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0269…cb2dbacked Commanders51c3,855$1,976 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,879.6444246.8%207 W · 235 L+10.7wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-1.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1608…a990backed Commanders45c3,607$1,623 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,983.877627.6%21 W · 55 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-21.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3c82…e0cbbacked Commanders40c3,423$1,355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,068.1114147.5%67 W · 74 L+7.7wins+0.05per pick42cpaid-5.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x89cd…f03bbacked Buccaneers61c3,340$2,037 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,037.357456.8%42 W · 32 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-7.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa89e…fb60backed Commanders58c3,323$1,927 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,395.771770.6%12 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.08per pick63cpaid+9.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6410…1ff4backed Buccaneers47c3,283$1,553 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,552.581127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick34cpaid-51.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3275…e7fcbacked Buccaneers61c3,279$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0004042.5%17 W · 23 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ec…3665backed Buccaneers61c3,279$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0002665.4%17 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f0a…e4eabacked Commanders46c3,079$1,412 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,666.775766.7%38 W · 19 L+2.8wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+11%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2b41…e0d3backed Commanders41c3,000$1,230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,77019864.6%128 W · 70 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick64cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x90f6…b703backed Buccaneers15c2,950$434 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$434.14633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick18cpaid-15.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2707…0afabacked Commanders42c2,855$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,654.5422142.1%93 W · 128 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-12.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7bc9…7361backed Buccaneers61c2,787$1,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,7001330.8%4 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-38.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf41f…e827backed Commanders60c2,647$1,575 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,071.384161%25 W · 16 L+2.6wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x51fd…07d4backed Commanders40c2,628$1,063 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,565.031154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Commanders44c2,578$1,140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,438.2523850.8%121 W · 117 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1250…8f99backed Commanders40c2,500$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,5003759.5%22 W · 15 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x31db…79a4backed Commanders40c2,500$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,5005825.9%15 W · 43 L-3.9wins-0.07per pick33cpaid-44.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa09b…a0ffbacked Commanders52c2,454$1,264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,189.781275%9 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.14per pick61cpaid+23.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7000…bf9cbacked Commanders40c2,391$968 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,423.94771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.19per pick52cpaid+83.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xec92…98f5backed Commanders40c2,353$931 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,422.3814757.1%84 W · 63 L-3.3wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x70f0…70aabacked Commanders40c2,289$925 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,363.622263.6%14 W · 8 L+2.4wins+0.11per pick53cpaid+38%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7990…c870backed Buccaneers57c2,235$1,281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,280.788953.9%48 W · 41 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Buccaneers60c2,215$1,329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,32935848.6%174 W · 184 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ccf…2fedbacked Commanders41c2,121$870 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,251.6610763.6%68 W · 39 L+6.1wins+0.06per pick58cpaid+4.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed Buccaneers24c2,101$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$510.44546.7%21 W · 24 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-24.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4b23…8278backed Commanders53c2,100$1,113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$986.776758.2%39 W · 28 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+7.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x91b0…f0b6backed Commanders52c2,100$1,089 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0112250%11 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5fc8…39efbacked Commanders52c2,032$1,059 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$973.2914248.6%69 W · 73 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12d6…dbbcbacked Buccaneers61c2,000$1,220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2202133.3%7 W · 14 L-1.7wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-35.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed Buccaneers58c2,000$1,165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,16538459.9%230 W · 154 L+12.0wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2ac1…45dbbacked Buccaneers60c2,000$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2007754.5%42 W · 35 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1642…5988backed Commanders40c2,000$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,20029356%164 W · 129 L+14.0wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+2.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf9fe…366bbacked Commanders50c2,000$1,010 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99036246.7%169 W · 193 L-7.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-8.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe483…b5a0backed Buccaneers61c1,967$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,20013453.7%72 W · 62 L-4.1wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-11%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x15c9…e725backed Commanders41c1,881$764 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,116.67922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-39.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6371…c2bfbacked Buccaneers52c1,878$971 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$971.381266.7%8 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+18.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b16…dae7backed Commanders44c1,854$810 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,044.4250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+14.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7bc0…d9f4backed Buccaneers60c1,786$1,076 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,076.4720%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x81bd…6954backed Buccaneers44c1,757$773 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$773.27333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick53cpaid-55.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcefa…bef8backed Buccaneers49c1,654$816 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$816.4716259.9%97 W · 65 L+6.6wins+0.04per pick56cpaid-0.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8f91…0df5backed Buccaneers60c1,653$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0002420.8%5 W · 19 L-4.4wins-0.18per pick39cpaid-59.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xc64d…a1c9backed Commanders42c1,615$683 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$931.896233.9%21 W · 41 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-20.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x75e0…fe50backed Commanders55c1,568$866 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$701.1910960.6%66 W · 43 L+7.8wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+1.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe932…0f05backed Commanders41c1,547$634 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$912.739754.6%53 W · 44 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-5.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e44…e83fbacked Commanders41c1,500$615 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$885850%4 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-7.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39ae…0268backed Commanders41c1,463$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$863.413554.3%19 W · 16 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick59cpaid-2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x200e…e239backed Buccaneers59c1,401$829 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8293151.6%16 W · 15 L+2.5wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+21.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4a91…7da8backed Commanders41c1,335$547 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$787.85475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.21per pick54cpaid+48.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbde5…9c38backed Commanders55c1,316$720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$596.2830743.6%134 W · 173 L-1.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.