NFL · resolved market
Will Joe Flacco start Week 1 for the Browns?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x725c10fca91aaee3b81e298d2d4e5fe7198e89fd5b41bec1318d4aed5608fe0e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $471,982
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $477,098
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $471,982 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x163a…d5cebacked Yes | 36c | 53,528$19,270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34,257.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e4…b63bbacked No | 64c | 53,528$34,258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34,257.92 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99ee…dd52backed No | 65c | 50,525$32,841 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32,841.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a89…2a00backed Yes | 35c | 50,525$17,684 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32,841.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +185.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…d45fbacked Yes | 46c | 31,344$14,418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,925.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc93e…2db5backed No | 54c | 31,344$16,926 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,925.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa72…53b0backed Yes | 46c | 29,340$13,496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,843.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d17…76b0backed No | 54c | 29,340$15,844 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,843.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…c435backed No | 48c | 27,768$13,329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,328.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c1c…a1f8backed Yes | 52c | 27,768$14,439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,328.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fed…89cbbacked No | 58c | 27,545$15,976 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,976.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf329…d77cbacked Yes | 42c | 27,545$11,569 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,976.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 4c | 1,164$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.04 | 567 | 9.9%56 W · 511 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 3c | 1,150$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.07 | 128 | 27.3%35 W · 93 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b9…de6dbacked Yes | 47c | 544.08$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.05 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.22per pick | 41cpaid | +44%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Yes | 63c | 524$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.17 | 202 | 38.6%78 W · 124 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0490…c81fbacked Yes | 28c | 500$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1547…d066backed Yes | 53c | 434.8$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.26 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +108.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 77c | 349$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.97 | 488 | 47.5%232 W · 256 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6337…1ebbbacked Yes | 57c | 257$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.63 | 186 | 29.6%55 W · 131 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 61c | 250.6$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.69 | 314 | 39.8%125 W · 189 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x005a…9318backed Yes | 59c | 212$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.92 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf5…55d0backed Yes | 38c | 205$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.31 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -34%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 60c | 180.93$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.23 | 268 | 30.6%82 W · 186 L | -29.2wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed No | 28c | 178.01$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.84 | 88 | 35.2%31 W · 57 L | -6.1wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0298…93c4backed No | 52c | 163.75$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.55 | 283 | 37.8%107 W · 176 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed No | 59c | 157.53$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.49 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb907…63f2backed Yes | 56c | 150$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.42 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…c9dbbacked Yes | 78c | 150$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf07a…6503backed Yes | 75c | 144.71$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97df…3088backed Yes | 59c | 131$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.71 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -50%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac7…db9dbacked No | 40c | 118.75$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…bfecbacked No | 55c | 109.16$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.36 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa518…41e3backed No | 49c | 101$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.49 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.15per pick | 70cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb28a…6d4abacked Yes | 51c | 101$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.49 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.15per pick | 26cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb405…8771backed Yes | 79c | 100.65$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x502b…a1d5backed No | 72c | 100$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 187 | 44.9%84 W · 103 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa03…c6c4backed No | 56c | 94$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc24c…afd4backed No | 55c | 89.15$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.03 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72dd…e303backed Yes | 49c | 87.27$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.51 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +97.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10a7…c0debacked Yes | 69c | 85.88$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb99…8c33backed No | 63c | 80$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa4a…0502backed No | 55c | 60$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | -5.6wins | -0.16per pick | 35cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 39c | 58.43$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.64 | 99 | 47.5%47 W · 52 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd86d…5034backed No | 55c | 55.47$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.51 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b7a…4817backed Yes | 60c | 55$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a1a…7619backed Yes | 43c | 52$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 38cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf123…686fbacked No | 56c | 50.59$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.25 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb052…e17bbacked Yes | 48c | 48.58$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3d…7118backed Yes | 51c | 47.2$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa1…a0c0backed Yes | 36c | 44.44$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0852…65b5backed Yes | 48c | 43.58$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cf0…fd3abacked Yes | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 72c | 40$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.67 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.17per pick | 44cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b51…3a3abacked No | 55c | 38.53$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1977…32e8backed No | 27c | 38.17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 199 | 48.2%96 W · 103 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47bb…81bcbacked Yes | 69c | 35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.17per pick | 58cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5add…9e47backed Yes | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37a4…a487backed Yes | 48c | 31.03$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.03 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e1…7c9fbacked No | 47c | 28.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb73…4984backed No | 55c | 27.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbeee…59acbacked No | 64c | 26.08$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.69 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -38%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Yes | 72c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 130 | 65.4%85 W · 45 L | +17.2wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 46c | 24.43$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.24 | 80 | 37.5%30 W · 50 L | -10.4wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1e26…cdf1backed Yes | 70c | 24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.16 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a67…af26backed Yes | 62c | 22.58$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x301f…357dbacked No | 55c | 21.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Joe Flacco start Week 1 for the Browns?this page
- Will Dillon Gabriel start Week 1 for the Browns?No won
- Will Kenny Pickett start Week 1 for the Browns?No won
- Will Shedeur Sanders start Week 1 for the Browns?No won
- Will another Qb start Week 1 for the Browns?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.