NFL · resolved market
Will Shedeur Sanders start Week 1 for the Browns?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa0fded16c0333a0f5215f990c78c16ae5759b606e59bcfacfd9e8342a15b5eef
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,271
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,189
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,271 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 2c | 2,646$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.73 | 128 | 27.3%35 W · 93 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa310…4c56backed Yes | 5c | 2,441$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +3.7wins | +0.09per pick | 29cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 1,826$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 567 | 9.9%56 W · 511 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6337…1ebbbacked Yes | 9c | 1,084$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.18 | 186 | 29.6%55 W · 131 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09d8…f1d9backed Yes | 10c | 1,011$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0298…93c4backed Yes | 6c | 976.43$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.02 | 283 | 37.8%107 W · 176 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Yes | 7c | 812.06$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.27 | 228 | 38.6%88 W · 140 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dca…48b9backed Yes | 9c | 779.33$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.69 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad7b…63dabacked Yes | 10c | 547.76$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.25 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.13per pick | 61cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 5c | 516.37$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.57 | 528 | 28.6%151 W · 377 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 7c | 433.92$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.23 | 58 | 15.5%9 W · 49 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Yes | 9c | 229$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.22 | 202 | 38.6%78 W · 124 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005a…9318backed Yes | 9c | 212$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf5…55d0backed Yes | 7c | 205$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -34%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd73b…6b37backed Yes | 8c | 186$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.32 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x768f…d08cbacked Yes | 15c | 140$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -4.4wins | -0.27per pick | 46cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5faf…27bbbacked Yes | 11c | 140$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 78 | 57.7%45 W · 33 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97df…3088backed Yes | 12c | 131$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -50%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7e5…1cd6backed Yes | 13c | 89.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac7…db9dbacked Yes | 15c | 78.87$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bd3…8c6fbacked Yes | 17c | 72.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38d5…063cbacked No | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Shedeur Sanders start Week 1 for the Browns?this page
- Will Dillon Gabriel start Week 1 for the Browns?No won
- Will Joe Flacco start Week 1 for the Browns?Yes won
- Will Kenny Pickett start Week 1 for the Browns?No won
- Will another Qb start Week 1 for the Browns?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.