NFL · resolved market
Will Kenny Pickett start Week 1 for the Browns?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6797a66f3886220920085fc9f01999044ba722215aa626aaa90aeab45e201b25
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $83,805
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $74,860
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $83,805 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x231c…c5ddbacked Yes | 39c | 27,618$10,771 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,771.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8df0…1c54backed No | 61c | 27,618$16,847 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,771.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21d0…ce91backed Yes | 10c | 2,718$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.73 | 132 | 17.4%23 W · 109 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +104.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 1,898$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.42 | 567 | 9.9%56 W · 511 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6337…1ebbbacked Yes | 16c | 1,708$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.45 | 186 | 29.6%55 W · 131 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked No | 75c | 1,224$919 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.83 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb98b…7e18backed Yes | 2c | 980$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.73 | 278 | 35.3%98 W · 180 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0298…93c4backed No | 63c | 905.86$573 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.13 | 283 | 37.8%107 W · 176 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1977…32e8backed No | 60c | 500$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 199 | 48.2%96 W · 103 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…e12bbacked Yes | 23c | 500$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 134 | 35.8%48 W · 86 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 4c | 476.03$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.06 | 528 | 28.6%151 W · 377 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 4c | 465.57$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.47 | 118 | 37.3%44 W · 74 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa4a…0502backed Yes | 35c | 403.1$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.92 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | -5.6wins | -0.16per pick | 35cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd46b…5dabbacked No | 71c | 362.16$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.36 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Yes | 22c | 360$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.86 | 202 | 38.6%78 W · 124 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b87…274cbacked Yes | 27c | 338.8$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 21c | 316.05$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.73 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed No | 77c | 308.2$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.35 | 212 | 27.8%59 W · 153 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b0…8b95backed Yes | 19c | 295.11$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.07 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2e…2358backed Yes | 15c | 294.8$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.92 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 7c | 260$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.39 | 128 | 27.3%35 W · 93 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x005a…9318backed Yes | 19c | 212$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.28 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf5…55d0backed Yes | 40c | 205$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -34%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4b…559cbacked Yes | 36c | 202$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.22 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.26per pick | 46cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a45…9d4abacked Yes | 7c | 188.19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 24c | 160.45$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.91 | 268 | 30.6%82 W · 186 L | -29.2wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa98f…6a3fbacked No | 74c | 140.62$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea04…b8c2backed Yes | 38c | 140$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.2 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 36c | 132.17$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.58 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97df…3088backed Yes | 13c | 131$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.59 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -50%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 15c | 127$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 488 | 47.5%232 W · 256 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x404c…48b2backed Yes | 16c | 104$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.03 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 114 | 46.5%53 W · 61 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7e5…1cd6backed Yes | 35c | 98.73$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b5…c492backed Yes | 40c | 91$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 21c | 85.06$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.03 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 55cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee97…ee69backed Yes | 24c | 84.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49a…3c21backed Yes | 40c | 83$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x502b…a1d5backed No | 63c | 80$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 187 | 44.9%84 W · 103 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 20c | 70$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 76c | 70$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.05 | 80 | 37.5%30 W · 50 L | -10.4wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3e25…7a93backed No | 72c | 59.54$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb277…d809backed Yes | 24c | 55.48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked No | 62c | 54.64$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.56 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf92e…e6e0backed No | 62c | 52$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a1a…7619backed Yes | 32c | 52$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 38cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae56…44febacked Yes | 37c | 50.61$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce5f…1f07backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9019…42e0backed No | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c43…fb9bbacked No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b6…9ef1backed No | 61c | 47.63$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce8e…923fbacked No | 77c | 42$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x768f…d08cbacked Yes | 42c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -4.4wins | -0.27per pick | 46cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1acb…1cb2backed No | 62c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…bfecbacked Yes | 33c | 36.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe819…ecd9backed No | 62c | 36$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf672…c194backed No | 72c | 27.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca7…ed82backed No | 77c | 26.29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dee…f4e6backed No | 69c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf12f…acdfbacked No | 76c | 20.55$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaef2…bc22backed No | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.36 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Kenny Pickett start Week 1 for the Browns?this page
- Will Dillon Gabriel start Week 1 for the Browns?No won
- Will Joe Flacco start Week 1 for the Browns?Yes won
- Will Shedeur Sanders start Week 1 for the Browns?No won
- Will another Qb start Week 1 for the Browns?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.