World Politics · resolved market
Will the Conservative Party win the popular vote in Canada's next election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd971052d84f7be119faf36cdc90ec8fc661147934731b44ce9e93f1a203118f7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,145,821
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,916,141
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,145,821 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 642 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed No | 67c | 123,388$82,319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41,068.81 | 482 | 24.7%119 W · 363 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd5…2a3fbacked No | 43c | 104,523$44,945 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59,578.11 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +91.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d6a…18e9backed Yes | 57c | 104,523$59,578 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59,578.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bf1…df22backed Yes | 32c | 75,967$24,138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24,138.39 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dfb…02f0backed No | 68c | 51,157$34,787 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,370.24 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8961…cca0backed Yes | 32c | 51,157$16,370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,370.24 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54e2…5009backed No | 63c | 49,043$30,670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,373.11 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf13e…6b92backed Yes | 38c | 48,056$18,160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,159.63 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7988…9619backed Yes | 35c | 47,000$16,319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,319.47 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed No | 68c | 45,295$30,655 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,639.55 | 118 | 53.4%63 W · 55 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a3…7921backed No | 65c | 36,429$23,857 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,572.03 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c91…9af7backed Yes | 34c | 36,000$12,188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,187.57 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x301a…d762backed Yes | 29c | 34,468$9,968 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,968.05 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -70%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd13…2e4dbacked Yes | 39c | 33,026$12,785 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,785 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x659c…8dfcbacked No | 69c | 32,333$22,291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,042.37 | 66 | 48.5%32 W · 34 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…10fabacked Yes | 34c | 32,263$11,030 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,030.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bbe…2cf3backed No | 65c | 31,218$20,235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,982.06 | 56 | 64.3%36 W · 20 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadf3…6908backed Yes | 37c | 29,158$10,927 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,926.9 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6203…d744backed Yes | 0c | 28,762$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.29 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 5c | 27,435$1,405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,404.63 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x889e…09e0backed No | 65c | 25,966$16,878 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,088.04 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4558…a2b3backed No | 76c | 24,796$18,767 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,028.7 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b8…f0cbbacked No | 76c | 23,009$17,502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,506.59 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes | 0c | 22,875$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.88 | 412 | 1%4 W · 408 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 0cpaid | +171.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81f8…6887backed Yes | 2c | 21,352$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…4c40backed No | 63c | 18,204$11,542 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,661.64 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.25per pick | 35cpaid | +66.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8081…95cabacked Yes | 3c | 17,542$555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555.12 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22e3…c075backed Yes | 35c | 16,672$5,813 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,812.91 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 26cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb49…b5b3backed No | 68c | 16,670$11,415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,254.95 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +4.4wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb859…5570backed Yes | 35c | 16,465$5,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,800 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3d…76ddbacked Yes | 38c | 16,283$6,109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,109.13 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | +5.0wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -20%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa41d…c563backed Yes | 29c | 15,004$4,321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,320.69 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1415…2360backed Yes | 22c | 14,182$3,151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,151.39 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7045…07d6backed Yes | 50c | 14,092$6,991 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,990.73 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xded5…d9cabacked Yes | 7c | 13,963$1,007 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,007.19 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +4.0wins | +0.18per pick | 23cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb0backed Yes | 7c | 13,497$938 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$938 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe859…36a7backed Yes | 30c | 13,051$3,934 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,934.28 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcba5…8b28backed Yes | 42c | 12,974$5,389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,388.55 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | -3.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x96f3…fdcabacked Yes | 13c | 12,673$1,648 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,647.64 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4009…f1b1backed Yes | 30c | 12,621$3,751 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,750.55 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c37…92a4backed No | 76c | 12,206$9,336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,870.53 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8890…79bdbacked Yes | 42c | 12,017$5,101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,101 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -38%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Yes | 2c | 11,883$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.44 | 64 | 10.9%7 W · 57 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe55d…0c54backed Yes | 31c | 11,676$3,633 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,632.91 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85b8…6b6abacked Yes | 36c | 11,405$4,154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,154.45 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b3a…6a54backed Yes | 7c | 11,000$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc96a…396abacked No | 71c | 10,638$7,553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,084.94 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 69c | 10,500$7,239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,261.16 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0344…a65ebacked Yes | 80c | 9,371$7,472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,472.17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f84…560fbacked Yes | 26c | 9,210$2,361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,360.65 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e8…401fbacked Yes | 37c | 9,141$3,405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,405.08 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3e…58c7backed Yes | 32c | 8,763$2,812 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,812.3 | 66 | 22.7%15 W · 51 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x253d…3307backed No | 76c | 8,720$6,655 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,065.19 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +165%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…995abacked No | 63c | 8,567$5,379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,188.12 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | +29.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd85c…4b42backed No | 73c | 8,197$6,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,197 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…bcc9backed No | 63c | 8,000$5,068 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,932.07 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35f0…d29ebacked Yes | 32c | 7,993$2,568 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,567.62 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc98a…2a0cbacked Yes | 32c | 7,919$2,534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,533.92 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8e…f023backed No | 73c | 7,839$5,701 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,138.33 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…e353backed Yes | 35c | 7,775$2,721 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,721 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7c8…a348backed No | 72c | 7,653$5,525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,127.76 | 44 | 34.1%15 W · 29 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fad…1d0abacked Yes | 53c | 7,593$4,055 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,054.54 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -6.1wins | -0.47per pick | 54cpaid | -89.9%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b3…9a7bbacked Yes | 23c | 7,585$1,736 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,736.21 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe75c…f6c2backed No | 59c | 7,563$4,495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,068.42 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8795…7544backed Yes | 7c | 7,527$552 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$551.58 | 93 | 34.4%32 W · 61 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x245b…00c5backed Yes | 34c | 7,493$2,548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,547.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5116…58c4backed Yes | 30c | 7,440$2,199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,198.97 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3607…c08bbacked Yes | 4c | 7,327$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.25 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3db7…1456backed Yes | 33c | 7,319$2,393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,392.94 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 62c | 7,284$4,523 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,760.33 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed79…5479backed Yes | 41c | 7,244$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57ca…125bbacked Yes | 30c | 7,086$2,147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,147.05 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd17e…0868backed Yes | 31c | 6,973$2,175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,174.66 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a3…04f4backed Yes | 13c | 6,954$927 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$927.11 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -4.0wins | -0.13per pick | 45cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed No | 59c | 6,889$4,038 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,850.82 | 86 | 40.7%35 W · 51 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09ce…4cb3backed Yes | 3c | 6,888$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.98 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d27…76d8backed No | 65c | 6,838$4,458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,379.91 | 361 | 4.4%16 W · 345 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5489…291fbacked Yes | 17c | 6,781$1,168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,168.31 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb6…10a9backed Yes | 3c | 6,622$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf70…d4a0backed Yes | 30c | 6,572$1,963 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,963 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe40…3bf6backed Yes | 32c | 6,313$1,996 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,996.38 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -78.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09bb…f8b1backed No | 74c | 6,245$4,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,644.14 | 85 | 55.3%47 W · 38 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x69e7…d3b0backed Yes | 38c | 6,184$2,362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,362.49 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -11%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15ef…8793backed Yes | 31c | 6,049$1,890 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,890.49 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd5…ac33backed No | 72c | 6,000$4,319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,681.2 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6328…9241backed Yes | 31c | 5,941$1,866 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,866 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81fa…41c9backed No | 65c | 5,938$3,867 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,070.98 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4081…cfb0backed Yes | 13c | 5,908$758 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$757.93 | 34 | 17.6%6 W · 28 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 8cpaid | +152.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3e…bd4abacked No | 70c | 5,869$4,103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,765.39 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 71cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46d3…701fbacked Yes | 29c | 5,599$1,603 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,602.65 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd221…a44bbacked Yes | 40c | 5,414$2,172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,171.72 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b7…9341backed Yes | 31c | 5,376$1,670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,670.2 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed No | 22c | 5,363$1,183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,180.19 | 167 | 44.3%74 W · 93 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e73…a236backed Yes | 50c | 5,306$2,676 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,676.07 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -3.6wins | -0.17per pick | 44cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x23c0…564cbacked Yes | 26c | 5,245$1,345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,345.48 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32bf…4e60backed Yes | 29c | 5,212$1,498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,498.06 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x954e…2fb6backed Yes | 39c | 5,197$2,032 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,031.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…30f5backed Yes | 58c | 5,172$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1539…ff6cbacked Yes | 38c | 5,153$1,943 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,943 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37b4…d5e5backed No | 68c | 4,820$3,267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,553.34 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +6.2wins | +0.13per pick | 36cpaid | +74.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Conservative Party win the popular vote in Canada's next election?this page
- Will another party win the popular vote in Canada's next election?No won
- Will the Bloc Québécois win the popular vote in Canada's next election?No won
- Will the Green Party win the popular vote in Canada's next election?No won
- Will the Liberal Party win the popular vote in Canada's next election?Yes won
- Will the New Democratic Party win the popular vote in Canada's next election?No won
- Will the People's Party win the popular vote in Canada's next election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.