World Politics · resolved market
Will the Liberal Party win the popular vote in Canada's next election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4c48d72bee2347ee0a0802850be8a7f36d318b405fb4bacbba455eb8a68dc6a3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,569,216
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,641,764
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,569,216 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 539 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x257c…2cfebacked Yes | 41c | 90,200$36,982 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53,218 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ed1…12a8backed No | 59c | 90,200$53,218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53,218 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8e…f023backed Yes | 62c | 36,956$22,850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,105.91 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 57c | 36,365$20,762 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,602.45 | 482 | 24.7%119 W · 363 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b87…274cbacked No | 0c | 31,398$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.4 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bbe…2cf3backed No | 38c | 30,768$11,612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,611.69 | 56 | 64.3%36 W · 20 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed Yes | 67c | 30,391$20,451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,939.59 | 118 | 53.4%63 W · 55 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x659c…8dfcbacked Yes | 68c | 29,511$19,984 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,526.42 | 66 | 48.5%32 W · 34 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4558…a2b3backed Yes | 73c | 26,020$19,089 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,931.02 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed No | 0c | 24,822$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.82 | 513 | 2.9%15 W · 498 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a37…869bbacked Yes | 69c | 22,047$15,143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,903.86 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3d…76ddbacked Yes | 62c | 20,304$12,611 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,693.62 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | +5.0wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -20%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x85b8…6b6abacked No | 35c | 20,102$7,132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,131.83 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…995abacked Yes | 49c | 17,577$8,535 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,041.25 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | +29.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb859…5570backed No | 37c | 17,389$6,489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,488.58 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Yes | 61c | 17,215$10,544 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,670.88 | 86 | 40.7%35 W · 51 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0dfa…c0e3backed No | 0c | 16,364$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.45 | 412 | 1%4 W · 408 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 0cpaid | +171.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 46c | 16,077$7,431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,645.62 | 167 | 44.3%74 W · 93 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x301a…d762backed No | 28c | 15,718$4,466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,466.11 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -70%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc30a…1a0dbacked Yes | 44c | 15,228$6,753 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,475.16 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6203…d744backed No | 6c | 15,105$856 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$856.07 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed No | 6c | 14,673$820 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$820.2 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked No | 1c | 14,565$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.73 | 64 | 10.9%7 W · 57 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 36c | 14,343$5,138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,137.83 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb747…b050backed Yes | 41c | 14,343$5,938 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,405.61 | 112 | 47.3%53 W · 59 L | +9.7wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a6…fd55backed No | 5c | 13,955$762 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$761.57 | 101 | 27.7%28 W · 73 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 66c | 13,844$9,183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,660.92 | 100 | 37%37 W · 63 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 68c | 13,661$9,332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,328.72 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked No | 0c | 13,599$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.68 | 452 | 1.1%5 W · 447 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 0cpaid | +156.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd5…ac33backed Yes | 73c | 12,821$9,393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,428.38 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c37…92a4backed Yes | 74c | 11,787$8,672 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,115.21 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b8…f0cbbacked Yes | 76c | 11,760$8,928 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,831.73 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fad…1d0abacked No | 45c | 11,389$5,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,099.66 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -6.1wins | -0.47per pick | 54cpaid | -89.9%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…4c40backed Yes | 63c | 11,380$7,126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,254.46 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.25per pick | 35cpaid | +66.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe900…ee2ebacked No | 61c | 11,298$6,847 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,847.03 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ced…12b2backed Yes | 67c | 11,153$7,441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,711.91 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce8f…4400backed Yes | 46c | 10,503$4,792 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,711.07 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d97…080ebacked Yes | 42c | 10,238$4,350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,887.31 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8890…79bdbacked No | 41c | 10,078$4,152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,152.48 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -38%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3df0…48f0backed Yes | 62c | 10,000$6,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,800 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked No | 37c | 9,559$3,511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,510.54 | 102 | 33.3%34 W · 68 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23c0…564cbacked No | 29c | 9,515$2,718 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,717.54 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a8…00c7backed Yes | 35c | 8,808$3,069 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,739.12 | 72 | 38.9%28 W · 44 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd85c…4b42backed Yes | 72c | 8,325$6,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,325.09 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3e…58c7backed No | 32c | 8,287$2,672 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,671.59 | 66 | 22.7%15 W · 51 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8081…95cabacked No | 3c | 8,222$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.46 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9de3…9a48backed Yes | 72c | 8,137$5,849 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,288.01 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40d5…3ecabacked Yes | 77c | 7,518$5,790 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,727.99 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.31per pick | 73cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x34e3…6adcbacked Yes | 64c | 7,365$4,703 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,661.87 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dce…38ecbacked Yes | 65c | 6,922$4,526 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,396.04 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -3.0wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b01…389dbacked Yes | 72c | 6,904$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,903.92 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08c8…1da2backed Yes | 67c | 6,900$4,623 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,277 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf13e…6b92backed No | 38c | 6,693$2,556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,556.49 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc0…61fbbacked Yes | 50c | 6,491$3,249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,241.95 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.35per pick | 50cpaid | +64.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x414b…0d3fbacked Yes | 61c | 6,314$3,820 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,493.87 | 133 | 34.6%46 W · 87 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae06…8acebacked Yes | 60c | 6,167$3,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,466.67 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1e…4f25backed No | 29c | 5,955$1,699 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,698.85 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3846…c908backed Yes | 63c | 5,820$3,690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,130.04 | 52 | 42.3%22 W · 30 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf875…d2fdbacked No | 36c | 5,355$1,928 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,927.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88fa…a8c1backed Yes | 35c | 5,289$1,856 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,432.58 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 21cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c55…3e7bbacked No | 34c | 5,289$1,789 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,788.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1c…4d4dbacked Yes | 72c | 5,200$3,744 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,456 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf55…22a8backed No | 28c | 5,000$1,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,400 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.18per pick | 26cpaid | -81%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd352…4ad6backed Yes | 34c | 4,994$1,719 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,274.94 | 52 | 30.8%16 W · 36 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a4e…0bdabacked Yes | 60c | 4,945$2,960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,985.36 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b7e…79e5backed Yes | 62c | 4,864$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,863.63 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -12%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe38e…c29dbacked No | 37c | 4,688$1,735 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,734.59 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7a…201abacked Yes | 71c | 4,668$3,314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,353.68 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8883…ad93backed Yes | 73c | 4,522$3,292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,229.76 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf70…d4a0backed No | 29c | 4,438$1,303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,303.06 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18aa…f6ecbacked Yes | 28c | 4,070$1,138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,931.3 | 109 | 28.4%31 W · 78 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2027…6d60backed Yes | 40c | 4,055$1,619 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,436.53 | 78 | 34.6%27 W · 51 L | -6.7wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb49…b5b3backed Yes | 66c | 4,000$2,654 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,346.2 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +4.4wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8795…7544backed No | 10c | 4,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 93 | 34.4%32 W · 61 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d27…76d8backed Yes | 62c | 3,970$2,443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,526.11 | 361 | 4.4%16 W · 345 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb0backed No | 17c | 3,947$656 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$656 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbad6…970bbacked No | 31c | 3,727$1,138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,138.42 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 65c | 3,721$2,417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,303.4 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd77b…24abbacked No | 30c | 3,569$1,078 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,078.14 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe75c…f6c2backed Yes | 61c | 3,555$2,169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,386.45 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefdb…7358backed Yes | 72c | 3,298$2,391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$906.96 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -6.3wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7bfe…eab8backed Yes | 58c | 3,245$1,882 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,362.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69e7…d3b0backed No | 54c | 3,200$1,738 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,738 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -11%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x635d…5025backed Yes | 50c | 3,200$1,603 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,596.73 | 126 | 30.2%38 W · 88 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | +86.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed No | 37c | 3,108$1,150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,150 | 135 | 25.2%34 W · 101 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadf4…ce9dbacked Yes | 62c | 3,075$1,906 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,168.44 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb843…1b3fbacked Yes | 22c | 3,040$669 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,370.94 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +118.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7908…b249backed Yes | 72c | 3,014$2,164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$850.23 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…ea5abacked Yes | 58c | 3,009$1,750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,258.88 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | -3.6wins | -0.10per pick | 66cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0894…cf93backed Yes | 49c | 3,000$1,455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,545 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +4.0wins | +0.20per pick | 35cpaid | +70.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb5da…c8afbacked No | 34c | 2,935$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 35cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a3…7921backed Yes | 69c | 2,861$1,982 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$879.13 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c21…d2febacked Yes | 68c | 2,835$1,919 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$915.86 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a1…daa5backed No | 37c | 2,819$1,043 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,043.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 48c | 2,736$1,321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,414.02 | 261 | 39.8%104 W · 157 L | +16.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x42a6…1b64backed Yes | 24c | 2,734$661 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,072.5 | 51 | 23.5%12 W · 39 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d6…fdd3backed Yes | 63c | 2,671$1,685 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$986.39 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -60%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab5…e56fbacked Yes | 58c | 2,647$1,535 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,112.08 | 73 | 57.5%42 W · 31 L | +10.1wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +53.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x42e0…0578backed No | 29c | 2,548$748 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$747.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a7…f3c0backed No | 27c | 2,515$689 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$688.94 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Liberal Party win the popular vote in Canada's next election?this page
- Will another party win the popular vote in Canada's next election?No won
- Will the Bloc Québécois win the popular vote in Canada's next election?No won
- Will the Conservative Party win the popular vote in Canada's next election?No won
- Will the Green Party win the popular vote in Canada's next election?No won
- Will the New Democratic Party win the popular vote in Canada's next election?No won
- Will the People's Party win the popular vote in Canada's next election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.