TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will another party win the popular vote in Canada's next election?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$832,708
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$232,515

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $832,708 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd046…e564backed Yes0c67,811$203 inLost-$203.43333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick23cpaid+5,455.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes0c28,938$57 inLost-$57.024121%4 W · 408 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick0cpaid+171.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes0c26,206$26 inLost-$26.2115230.3%46 W · 106 L-18.7wins-0.12per pick43cpaid-30.4%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes0c20,000$20 inLost-$205132.9%15 W · 498 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick2cpaid+88.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked Yes0c18,441$25 inLost-$25.264521.1%5 W · 447 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick0cpaid+156.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc0ad…3055backed Yes0c13,200$13 inLost-$13.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2063…0464backed Yes0c13,190$13 inLost-$13.1920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8cdc…459cbacked Yes0c13,175$13 inLost-$13.1820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9df2…1cf1backed Yes0c12,190$12 inLost-$12.1910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f26…1bb1backed Yes0c10,881$11 inLost-$10.8820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ece…1da2backed Yes0c10,881$11 inLost-$10.8820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb46…b6fabacked Yes0c10,087$10 inLost-$10.0910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58e5…0fa4backed Yes0c10,087$10 inLost-$10.0910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbe5…ed49backed Yes0c9,761$19 inLost-$19.41120%0 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9488…b5a6backed Yes0c9,200$10 inLost-$1080%0 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe303…b800backed Yes1c1,363$13 inLost-$12.7610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.