World Politics · resolved market
Justin Trudeau out as leader of Liberals before April?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x56188fa55d37270dcda91fe9136316026dca52aa0352e16114ba5899162536a1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $62,257
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $63,521
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $62,257 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 185 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed No | 23c | 3,883$888 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$887.61 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac02…e636backed Yes | 68c | 3,387$2,287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,100.41 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc0…d9f4backed No | 23c | 2,109$482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$481.7 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x054b…2339backed No | 29c | 1,808$527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$527.43 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21a8…da85backed No | 36c | 1,393$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad7e…f9ebbacked Yes | 68c | 1,350$916 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434.53 | 82 | 31.7%26 W · 56 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce8f…4400backed No | 30c | 1,227$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.15 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f6…afa4backed No | 5c | 1,127$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.93 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd3…e662backed No | 8c | 1,100$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc30a…1a0dbacked No | 24c | 826.77$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.91 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed No | 15c | 826.13$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.17 | 89 | 21.3%19 W · 70 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +105.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked No | 2c | 741.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 78 | 0%0 W · 78 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x013d…3e88backed No | 27c | 715.13$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.39 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e28…d1debacked No | 36c | 697.36$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8081…6d62backed No | 24c | 685.24$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.42 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x386d…9bb6backed Yes | 68c | 673.42$456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.08 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed No | 32c | 566.2$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.4 | 97 | 21.6%21 W · 76 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc9…fc51backed Yes | 71c | 533.72$379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.2 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781f…6763backed No | 16c | 500$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 25cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 11c | 471.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.86 | 203 | 28.6%58 W · 145 L | -11.4wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c56…2845backed Yes | 75c | 465.83$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.83 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 48cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9867…5cc6backed Yes | 76c | 375.43$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.31 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +60.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04d5…1054backed Yes | 69c | 360.09$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.09 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -28%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5838…3636backed Yes | 61c | 313.27$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.44 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +6.0wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +77.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 28c | 298.75$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.72 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44dd…10dfbacked Yes | 75c | 291.68$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.92 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf04…d45bbacked Yes | 61c | 271.31$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.31 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ea9…d092backed Yes | 66c | 255.17$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.82 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a72…f81dbacked No | 32c | 252.16$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.8 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | -5.1wins | -0.22per pick | 31cpaid | -79%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x08c8…1da2backed Yes | 79c | 250$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…2cd1backed Yes | 40c | 250$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 25c | 231$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.84 | 152 | 37.5%57 W · 95 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 77c | 208$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.3 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9161…46d6backed No | 19c | 207$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.02 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c41…133ebacked No | 24c | 200$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 65 | 33.8%22 W · 43 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06d0…059abacked Yes | 79c | 200$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x495f…506abacked No | 27c | 190$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.3 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0db2…4ab1backed Yes | 62c | 162.26$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.26 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.32per pick | 34cpaid | +87.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d38…2122backed Yes | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 27c | 158.18$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.04 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed No | 22c | 150$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 135 | 25.2%34 W · 101 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7387…7cc8backed Yes | 79c | 150$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…693fbacked No | 28c | 149.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.37 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc17a…1db3backed Yes | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a48…c9e9backed Yes | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +35%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ebc…b939backed Yes | 66c | 126.99$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +50.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 50c | 121.82$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.81 | 200 | 51.5%103 W · 97 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed No | 27c | 110.09$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 101 | 31.7%32 W · 69 L | -8.6wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc3eb…6f4fbacked Yes | 40c | 108$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.3 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5497…05e3backed No | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02bf…d050backed No | 26c | 103$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c71…14a4backed No | 29c | 102.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee01…f1ffbacked Yes | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7960…f8a8backed Yes | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c2e…75eabacked Yes | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +86%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7d1…bc2abacked No | 21c | 96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa7e…e27bbacked Yes | 67c | 93$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.95 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e4…f148backed No | 41c | 93$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe114…f091backed No | 36c | 92$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.46 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71cd…d3a0backed Yes | 60c | 89$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9f5…52d8backed Yes | 61c | 88$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x865a…9667backed No | 34c | 87$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe10b…5fe3backed No | 20c | 85$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 67 | 32.8%22 W · 45 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66e5…3250backed No | 29c | 83.81$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x758a…076fbacked No | 22c | 80$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa54…3340backed Yes | 79c | 79$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.51 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +29%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa35c…931cbacked No | 21c | 77$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.82 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0316…003ebacked Yes | 77c | 77$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1750…d66abacked Yes | 78c | 77$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04e5…9e93backed No | 34c | 77$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc288…3480backed No | 31c | 76.01$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.24 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29fc…06b0backed Yes | 69c | 75$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.25 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb03…4bdfbacked No | 27c | 74.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e8f…f9e9backed Yes | 42c | 74.56$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.56 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcae…ebf1backed No | 39c | 73$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x895a…2aa7backed No | 21c | 73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.07 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x766b…46a9backed No | 37c | 70$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafc6…13ffbacked Yes | 62c | 70$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ca5…40c3backed No | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x147c…ad37backed No | 27c | 69$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 30c | 66.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 206 | 14.6%30 W · 176 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6691…6338backed Yes | 71c | 66$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c75…654cbacked No | 18c | 66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed Yes | 72c | 65$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7e1…5133backed No | 43c | 64$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.52 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbf…a496backed Yes | 68c | 63.29$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.25 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd293…bcdebacked Yes | 62c | 63$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +62.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf499…5543backed Yes | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc85…a835backed No | 33c | 62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e51…2e97backed Yes | 66c | 61.02$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.02 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ba…6cbdbacked No | 26c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4000…fba1backed Yes | 67c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9435…a38ebacked No | 33c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc2c…d077backed Yes | 67c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +96.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec17…9724backed Yes | 68c | 59$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae32…dcf4backed Yes | 76c | 56$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.63 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +75.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e1…decdbacked Yes | 79c | 55.91$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae16…fcccbacked No | 38c | 54$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb73c…77fcbacked Yes | 78c | 54$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66b2…b821backed Yes | 74c | 54$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.