TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Justin Trudeau out as leader of Liberals before April?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$62,257
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$63,521

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $62,257 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 185 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x96b5…f5e7backed No23c3,883$888 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$887.613839.5%15 W · 23 L-3.3wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-31.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xac02…e636backed Yes68c3,387$2,287 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,100.411040%4 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-43.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7bc0…d9f4backed No23c2,109$482 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$481.7812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick17cpaid-67.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x054b…2339backed No29c1,808$527 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$527.4340%0 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x21a8…da85backed No36c1,393$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50040%0 W · 4 L-2.1wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xad7e…f9ebbacked Yes68c1,350$916 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$434.538231.7%26 W · 56 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce8f…4400backed No30c1,227$368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$368.152147.6%10 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+13.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0f6…afa4backed No5c1,127$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.9320%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7fd3…e662backed No8c1,100$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$865425.9%14 W · 40 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick24cpaid-15.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc30a…1a0dbacked No24c826.77$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.912343.5%10 W · 13 L+1.6wins+0.07per pick37cpaid+11.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5c29…d822backed No15c826.13$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.178921.3%19 W · 70 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick24cpaid+105.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa9f9…b3debacked No2c741.45$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.96780%0 W · 78 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x013d…3e88backed No27c715.13$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.39922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-55.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e28…d1debacked No36c697.36$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25040%0 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8081…6d62backed No24c685.24$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.4230%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x386d…9bb6backed Yes68c673.42$456 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.083429.4%10 W · 24 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2370…0e10backed No32c566.2$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.49721.6%21 W · 76 L-3.7wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-51.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0cc9…fc51backed Yes71c533.72$379 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.21464.3%9 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x781f…6763backed No16c500$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$802035%7 W · 13 L+2.1wins+0.10per pick25cpaid+16.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed No11c471.05$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.8620328.6%58 W · 145 L-11.4wins-0.06per pick34cpaid-29.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2c56…2845backed Yes75c465.83$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.83771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.23per pick48cpaid+36.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9867…5cc6backed Yes76c375.43$284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.312100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+60.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x04d5…1054backed Yes69c360.09$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.09250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick71cpaid-28%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5838…3636backed Yes61c313.27$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.444753.2%25 W · 22 L+6.0wins+0.13per pick40cpaid+77.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No28c298.75$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.721,02228%286 W · 736 L+1.6wins0.00per pick28cpaid-34.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x44dd…10dfbacked Yes75c291.68$219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.92250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-33.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf04…d45bbacked Yes61c271.31$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.312339.1%9 W · 14 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick33cpaid+28.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0ea9…d092backed Yes66c255.17$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.82633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.20per pick53cpaid-49.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6a72…f81dbacked No32c252.16$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.8238.7%2 W · 21 L-5.1wins-0.22per pick31cpaid-79%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x08c8…1da2backed Yes79c250$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.51957.9%11 W · 8 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick51cpaid-12.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6f46…2cd1backed Yes40c250$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1504045%18 W · 22 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x745a…64e8backed No25c231$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.8415237.5%57 W · 95 L+8.0wins+0.05per pick32cpaid-2.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes77c208$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.31,31843.9%579 W · 739 L-26.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9161…46d6backed No19c207$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.02650%3 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+54.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2c41…133ebacked No24c200$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$486533.8%22 W · 43 L+3.3wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+11.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x06d0…059abacked Yes79c200$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43666.7%4 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick73cpaid-12.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x495f…506abacked No27c190$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.360%0 W · 6 L-2.1wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x0db2…4ab1backed Yes62c162.26$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.26666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.9wins+0.32per pick34cpaid+87.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5d38…2122backed Yes62c161.29$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.29616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick27cpaid-73.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No27c158.18$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.0457636.3%209 W · 367 L-27.2wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-28.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf0ed…47d8backed No22c150$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3313525.2%34 W · 101 L-0.3wins0.00per pick25cpaid+38.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7387…7cc8backed Yes79c150$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.53100%3 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+41%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x88b0…693fbacked No28c149.99$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.375633.9%19 W · 37 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-13%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc17a…1db3backed Yes75c133.33$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.331520%3 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-37.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a48…c9e9backed Yes76c131.58$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.58475%3 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick64cpaid+35%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1ebc…b939backed Yes66c126.99$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.841100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+50.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcceb…f030backed No50c121.82$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.8120051.5%103 W · 97 L-0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x260d…9679backed No27c110.09$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010131.7%32 W · 69 L-8.6wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-36.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc3eb…6f4fbacked Yes40c108$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.3450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+41.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5497…05e3backed No19c105.26$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x02bf…d050backed No26c103$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.78250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-35.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c71…14a4backed No29c102.86$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-25.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee01…f1ffbacked Yes59c100$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$411100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7960…f8a8backed Yes48c100$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$523732.4%12 W · 25 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick28cpaid-9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6c2e…75eabacked Yes71c100$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.25per pick42cpaid+86%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe7d1…bc2abacked No21c96$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.28333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick52cpaid-56.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa7e…e27bbacked Yes67c93$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.952100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+48.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf6e4…f148backed No41c93$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.7910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe114…f091backed No36c92$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.46366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick48cpaid+30.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x71cd…d3a0backed Yes60c89$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe9f5…52d8backed Yes61c88$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.241100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x865a…9667backed No34c87$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.64250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-16.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe10b…5fe3backed No20c85$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176732.8%22 W · 45 L+0.3wins0.00per pick32cpaid-18.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x66e5…3250backed No29c83.81$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.1520%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x758a…076fbacked No22c80$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.3420%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa54…3340backed Yes79c79$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.512100%2 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+29%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa35c…931cbacked No21c77$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.82366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+13.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0316…003ebacked Yes77c77$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.73100%3 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+55.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1750…d66abacked Yes78c77$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.94250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-35.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x04e5…9e93backed No34c77$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.3210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc288…3480backed No31c76.01$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.24955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-18.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x29fc…06b0backed Yes69c75$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.252352.2%12 W · 11 L+2.2wins+0.10per pick43cpaid+13.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdb03…4bdfbacked No27c74.73$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202259.1%13 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick64cpaid-9.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e8f…f9e9backed Yes42c74.56$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.561050%5 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+26.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdcae…ebf1backed No39c73$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.4610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x895a…2aa7backed No21c73$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.07250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-37.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x766b…46a9backed No37c70$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xafc6…13ffbacked Yes62c70$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8ca5…40c3backed No30c70$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.6810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x147c…ad37backed No27c69$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.320%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked No30c66.66$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020614.6%30 W · 176 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick13cpaid-18.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6691…6338backed Yes71c66$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.261100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+41.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c75…654cbacked No18c66$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.8610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe0a2…a349backed Yes72c65$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.28048.8%39 W · 41 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+16.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa7e1…5133backed No43c64$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.52366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+30.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8cbf…a496backed Yes68c63.29$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.251250%6 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-19.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd293…bcdebacked Yes62c63$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.231100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+62.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf499…5543backed Yes80c62.5$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.51353.8%7 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick62cpaid-11.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc85…a835backed No33c62$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.16250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-26.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e51…2e97backed Yes66c61.02$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.021346.2%6 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-17.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb3ba…6cbdbacked No26c60$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.440%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4000…fba1backed Yes67c60$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9435…a38ebacked No33c60$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.8333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-18.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc2c…d077backed Yes67c60$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.82100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+96.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xec17…9724backed Yes68c59$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.631100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+46.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae32…dcf4backed Yes76c56$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.632100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+75.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe5e1…decdbacked Yes79c55.91$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.7728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.19per pick48cpaid-62.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xae16…fcccbacked No38c54$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb73c…77fcbacked Yes78c54$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.881100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x66b2…b821backed Yes74c54$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.171100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.