AI · resolved market
Will Grok remain the #1 model through March 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8bf6ed5669f5f5d528645e25a7c539d8666700c94019f5fa7cb47346b159c028
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $65,245
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $49,524
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $65,245 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 9,476$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 82 | 1.2%1 W · 81 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 29c | 5,059$1,475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,475.28 | 457 | 38.9%178 W · 279 L | -31.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes | 0c | 4,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 46 | 0%0 W · 46 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e0…fd91backed Yes | 28c | 3,418$952 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$951.78 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc412…592dbacked Yes | 13c | 2,275$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.65 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 38c | 1,802$692 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$692.13 | 110 | 30.9%34 W · 76 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed Yes | 3c | 1,666$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | +4.1wins | +0.13per pick | 13cpaid | +104%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb07d…23dcbacked No | 46c | 1,576$726 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$850.15 | 68 | 29.4%20 W · 48 L | +6.0wins | +0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3df3…38dbbacked No | 79c | 1,574$1,249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefbb…65e8backed Yes | 42c | 1,086$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460.02 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25f8…3428backed Yes | 40c | 1,065$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7acd…3cc9backed No | 60c | 1,000$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d83…0bb9backed No | 75c | 950$709 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.5 | 86 | 44.2%38 W · 48 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 75c | 937.38$702 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.26 | 88 | 64.8%57 W · 31 L | +8.4wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 22c | 900.17$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.68 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +5.3wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed No | 80c | 848.22$678 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…f845backed Yes | 43c | 780.53$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.55 | 63 | 28.6%18 W · 45 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +59%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x048a…eb07backed Yes | 26c | 757.33$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 41 | 17.1%7 W · 34 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f6e…5727backed No | 57c | 711.57$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.98 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 52c | 652.64$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.16 | 257 | 31.5%81 W · 176 L | -14.6wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x668d…97d2backed Yes | 3c | 634.03$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.16 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b93…9ec4backed Yes | 37c | 603.56$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.18 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +8.1wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd0…bc3dbacked Yes | 22c | 581.59$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.58 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53ed…7aeabacked Yes | 5c | 529.93$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8152…bfdabacked Yes | 27c | 524.12$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.27 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 29c | 443.95$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.83 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ce…54a5backed Yes | 23c | 400$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe828…3dd4backed Yes | 23c | 400$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…1d05backed Yes | 27c | 350$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.25 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdbd…8d71backed No | 76c | 328.95$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.95 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a44…6d3fbacked Yes | 31c | 327$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.28 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde26…0972backed No | 77c | 307.66$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.1 | 21 | 90.5%19 W · 2 L | +5.1wins | +0.24per pick | 66cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd3d9…9695backed No | 79c | 278.22$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a9…2948backed Yes | 29c | 239.99$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.4 | 44 | 22.7%10 W · 34 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b7d…b922backed No | 56c | 200$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed No | 75c | 199.99$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.28 | 128 | 39.8%51 W · 77 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4010…9236backed Yes | 22c | 177.27$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06b9…f7fcbacked No | 70c | 169$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.7 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c48…6da6backed No | 57c | 168.42$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.42 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 72c | 168.42$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.16 | 85 | 43.5%37 W · 48 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc7b…5824backed Yes | 18c | 163.65$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 19c | 159.23$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.58 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc45…13bdbacked No | 56c | 150$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -53%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x144f…12c3backed No | 56c | 142.86$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.86 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +192.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7277…7cd6backed No | 70c | 124$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed Yes | 20c | 120$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -4.1wins | -0.15per pick | 41cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 21c | 112.2$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.56 | 243 | 15.2%37 W · 206 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78ca…2f89backed No | 76c | 106.3$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.51 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed Yes | 18c | 105.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 30 | 10%3 W · 27 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | +41%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57c5…28e5backed No | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.97 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb63f…557fbacked Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +117.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38b2…1a2dbacked Yes | 22c | 99.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 22cpaid | +228.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 31c | 98.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 211 | 25.6%54 W · 157 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 73c | 85$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.34 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…c585backed Yes | 38c | 80.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.21 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +80.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5a…ab14backed Yes | 44c | 77.78$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a2a…6eabbacked No | 70c | 75$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +102.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd1…7be2backed No | 70c | 71.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x686a…6810backed No | 77c | 70$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bc8…1bfebacked Yes | 28c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9127…6ff3backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7313…cbbcbacked No | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 64cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 42c | 48.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 288 | 28.5%82 W · 206 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ace…ed20backed No | 63c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.67 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x106f…83d5backed Yes | 46c | 39$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.97 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 30c | 33.56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8642…68d9backed No | 69c | 20.59$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 126 | 39.7%50 W · 76 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e26…cdf1backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…009dbacked No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +3.6wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9f92…dd4cbacked No | 55c | 19.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.