World Politics · resolved market
Will CDU/CSU win the second most seats in the next German election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x59de7d7484f77cefa3f1ad25c1638222db44b927e85c3e324ea0c45594695600
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,444,184
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $707,236
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,444,184 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 141 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x32cf…b8d3backed Yes | 4c | 120,462$4,725 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,725.19 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42a6…1b64backed Yes | 5c | 94,395$4,364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,364.28 | 51 | 23.5%12 W · 39 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ebb…0f7fbacked Yes | 6c | 80,554$5,154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,154.36 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83e2…dd5ebacked Yes | 6c | 70,632$4,515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,514.84 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1638…339bbacked Yes | 5c | 62,574$3,059 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,059.26 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a87…4e00backed Yes | 7c | 55,000$3,875 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,874.99 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b6…2871backed Yes | 0c | 40,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…c9dbbacked Yes | 4c | 38,968$1,440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,439.92 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6391…bc1cbacked Yes | 5c | 38,109$1,815 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,815.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4c…532bbacked Yes | 2c | 34,183$777 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$777.49 | 55 | 21.8%12 W · 43 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d27…76d8backed Yes | 4c | 26,551$986 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$985.68 | 361 | 4.4%16 W · 345 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a4e…1370backed Yes | 3c | 24,322$840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$839.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3371…5871backed Yes | 2c | 21,621$522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$521.55 | 26 | 3.8%1 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -87.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d97…fbd8backed Yes | 1c | 20,091$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.84 | 113 | 1.8%2 W · 111 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +96.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 3c | 17,652$587 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$587.09 | 206 | 14.6%30 W · 176 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc122…731fbacked Yes | 6c | 13,461$871 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$870.8 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…7105backed Yes | 5c | 12,008$608 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$607.99 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ef…3d1ebacked Yes | 6c | 11,587$716 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$716.29 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 7c | 10,741$721 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$721.29 | 278 | 28.1%78 W · 200 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08b1…504bbacked Yes | 5c | 10,387$473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$473 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf555…b2d5backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c16…df3abacked Yes | 4c | 9,309$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.27 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd28d…1fb7backed Yes | 6c | 9,050$571 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570.87 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05c5…73e1backed Yes | 4c | 7,275$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.57 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad1…5d7cbacked Yes | 4c | 6,737$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…d813backed Yes | 5c | 6,000$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.98 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0670…87c7backed Yes | 4c | 5,192$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3d…76ddbacked Yes | 4c | 5,028$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.11 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | +5.0wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -20%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x066a…550dbacked Yes | 5c | 4,144$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.31 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cd…996bbacked Yes | 6c | 3,390$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf55e…0c66backed Yes | 4c | 3,381$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.6 | 38 | 2.6%1 W · 37 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -90.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes | 4c | 3,356$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 140 | 33.6%47 W · 93 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes | 4c | 3,350$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.06 | 135 | 25.2%34 W · 101 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e7…fc15backed Yes | 5c | 3,349$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.86 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2023…2d55backed Yes | 8c | 3,165$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.55 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 6c | 3,147$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.34 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e26…927fbacked Yes | 4c | 3,056$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 3c | 3,043$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.65 | 232 | 25%58 W · 174 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 5c | 2,976$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.98 | 78 | 0%0 W · 78 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd6b…68f5backed Yes | 4c | 2,864$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.94 | 63 | 28.6%18 W · 45 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f14…d899backed Yes | 5c | 2,598$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.42 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c65…d60dbacked Yes | 4c | 2,542$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45b4…7d8fbacked Yes | 6c | 2,501$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.74 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 17cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1330…38a1backed Yes | 8c | 2,412$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 6c | 2,317$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.47 | 152 | 37.5%57 W · 95 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 3c | 2,155$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.12 | 513 | 2.9%15 W · 498 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5464…be5ebacked Yes | 6c | 2,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -3.2wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8946…1b70backed Yes | 5c | 2,000$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.57 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd49…0d55backed Yes | 7c | 2,000$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9739…159fbacked Yes | 4c | 2,000$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.99 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x964b…53c7backed Yes | 4c | 1,797$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbf5…41ccbacked Yes | 6c | 1,678$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6eb7…0b01backed Yes | 6c | 1,670$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97b8…3a8abacked Yes | 4c | 1,648$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9002…67f7backed Yes | 4c | 1,504$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.89 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8732…6cb4backed Yes | 3c | 1,500$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b47…aa4dbacked Yes | 4c | 1,500$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5644…e375backed Yes | 8c | 1,459$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e6…7a18backed Yes | 4c | 1,390$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc82…0e1fbacked Yes | 5c | 1,247$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.35 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d01…1645backed Yes | 7c | 1,180$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.58 | 120 | 29.2%35 W · 85 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +49.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 3c | 1,170$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.07 | 121 | 33.1%40 W · 81 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65dc…ce71backed Yes | 4c | 1,138$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cf1…7fc8backed Yes | 5c | 1,122$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d6…fdd3backed Yes | 3c | 1,120$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.71 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -60%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ff…5c35backed Yes | 4c | 1,070$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.47 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92c9…0b30backed Yes | 4c | 1,040$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab0f…fa19backed Yes | 4c | 1,023$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x500a…5ef8backed Yes | 4c | 1,013$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7024…4c4cbacked Yes | 3c | 999.92$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 34 | 0%0 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f24…513ebacked Yes | 4c | 999.85$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.25 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04ed…223fbacked Yes | 4c | 973.49$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3474…0571backed Yes | 7c | 955$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.76 | 200 | 34%68 W · 132 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf5b…4e12backed Yes | 4c | 934.15$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f6…f9c5backed Yes | 4c | 918.44$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2104…a495backed Yes | 5c | 912.68$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.38 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 6c | 891.15$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.21 | 97 | 21.6%21 W · 76 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed Yes | 11c | 889$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.61 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d87…9e14backed Yes | 4c | 886.69$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33cf…0bf1backed Yes | 4c | 876.69$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe91…98ebbacked Yes | 4c | 842.01$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7cb…07dcbacked Yes | 7c | 818.03$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60cf…aa95backed Yes | 4c | 816.21$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…d658backed Yes | 7c | 802.58$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb73…a4bebacked Yes | 4c | 801$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.41 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes | 5c | 800$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 186 | 28.5%53 W · 133 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd04e…77dfbacked Yes | 7c | 752.36$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb33…aaadbacked Yes | 7c | 747.84$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cac…6fa7backed Yes | 5c | 700$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.68 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf8…591bbacked Yes | 4c | 683.49$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd029…e7afbacked Yes | 8c | 661.22$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.2 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -53%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x197a…4932backed Yes | 6c | 631.36$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.88 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5943…fd99backed Yes | 4c | 615.71$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb27…4db3backed Yes | 7c | 600$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.2 | 37 | 2.7%1 W · 36 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 11cpaid | -82%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6685…027ebacked Yes | 3c | 598.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0321…7149backed Yes | 5c | 593.39$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc128…6918backed Yes | 9c | 577.6$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9f…c17cbacked Yes | 4c | 576.96$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.06 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | +4.8wins | +0.11per pick | 17cpaid | +74.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbf0f…e583backed Yes | 3c | 571.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf04f…a8c4backed Yes | 5c | 550.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.82 | 62 | 24.2%15 W · 47 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CDU/CSU win the second most seats in the next German election?this page
- Will AfD win the second most seats in the next German election?Yes won
- Will BSW win the second most seats in the next German election?No won
- Will SPD win the second most seats in the next German election?No won
- Will another party win the second most seats in the next German election?No won
- Will the Greens win the second most seats in the next German election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.