World Politics · resolved market
Will the Greens win the second most seats in the next German election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1eaf199539629acaedafc165a72d556757babf5f896bd1fce1c9b2247e9f94fc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,486,040
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $745,433
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,486,040 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbe8e…0045backed Yes | 1c | 99,999$562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$562 | 61 | 21.3%13 W · 48 L | +5.8wins | +0.09per pick | 12cpaid | +164.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2d27…76d8backed Yes | 0c | 93,053$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.8 | 361 | 4.4%16 W · 345 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe68a…5e25backed Yes | 0c | 84,821$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.43 | 29 | 0%0 W · 29 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x612f…aa53backed Yes | 0c | 74,451$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.5 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 2c | 71,885$1,233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,232.69 | 121 | 33.1%40 W · 81 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d97…fbd8backed Yes | 0c | 61,690$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.54 | 113 | 1.8%2 W · 111 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +96.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4c…532bbacked Yes | 0c | 33,242$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.61 | 55 | 21.8%12 W · 43 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf43a…cafcbacked Yes | 0c | 32,046$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.05 | 44 | 9.1%4 W · 40 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -35%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8946…1b70backed Yes | 0c | 30,000$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.5 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…ef5fbacked Yes | 1c | 27,950$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.9 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cd…996bbacked Yes | 1c | 26,447$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb777…6e06backed Yes | 0c | 25,500$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6902…678cbacked Yes | 1c | 23,591$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.36 | 38 | 21.1%8 W · 30 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36f9…7e3bbacked Yes | 0c | 22,000$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11a5…4032backed Yes | 0c | 21,100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 40 | 5%2 W · 38 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | -84.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39c8…6e68backed Yes | 0c | 16,965$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.57 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d51…36b3backed Yes | 0c | 15,850$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.85 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3530…3249backed Yes | 2c | 15,496$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 0c | 15,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 513 | 2.9%15 W · 498 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a81…a654backed Yes | 3c | 14,020$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28de…a1fdbacked Yes | 1c | 13,504$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.33 | 48 | 25%12 W · 36 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +108.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b37…6952backed Yes | 2c | 11,376$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.61 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55b4…80eabacked Yes | 1c | 11,347$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.08 | 100 | 14%14 W · 86 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0549…5c0cbacked Yes | 0c | 10,518$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.39per pick | 11cpaid | +182%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a2…1dc5backed Yes | 0c | 10,500$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a9d…39b7backed Yes | 2c | 10,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44c0…6867backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef2…d0dabacked Yes | 1c | 10,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +154.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cec…abb3backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1cd8backed Yes | 3c | 10,000$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.83 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37d2…f302backed Yes | 1c | 10,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9dc…9026backed Yes | 1c | 9,617$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.19 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ff…5c35backed Yes | 3c | 9,614$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.93 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cc4…c179backed Yes | 1c | 7,836$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.23 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d85…8393backed Yes | 0c | 7,803$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19da…11f0backed Yes | 1c | 6,075$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.12 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 11cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c46…a137backed Yes | 0c | 6,073$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf359…3473backed Yes | 2c | 5,834$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.81 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 1c | 5,221$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.9 | 206 | 14.6%30 W · 176 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefbb…65e8backed Yes | 1c | 5,000$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 38 | 0%0 W · 38 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8c1…8975backed Yes | 0c | 4,982$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf0d…132dbacked Yes | 3c | 4,227$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.81 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f9…5691backed Yes | 0c | 4,212$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04e…77dfbacked Yes | 5c | 4,101$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a97…158dbacked Yes | 1c | 3,643$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 0c | 3,500$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 232 | 25%58 W · 174 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f29…dd03backed Yes | 3c | 3,434$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.32 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 1c | 3,044$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.59 | 452 | 1.1%5 W · 447 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 0cpaid | +156.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f91…68cfbacked Yes | 4c | 2,820$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc565…1263backed Yes | 1c | 2,526$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd4b…e477backed Yes | 2c | 2,461$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 3c | 2,378$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.95 | 78 | 0%0 W · 78 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0df8…333ebacked Yes | 0c | 2,328$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -63%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91a3…e977backed Yes | 7c | 2,285$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.35 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7487…6f2dbacked Yes | 1c | 2,080$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f76…60d2backed Yes | 2c | 2,034$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf40f…dbe0backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x995d…bd40backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf5e…4168backed Yes | 1c | 1,937$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8967…1e9bbacked Yes | 7c | 1,896$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.81 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcda…571dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,814$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3687…b1d6backed Yes | 2c | 1,500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 3c | 1,296$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.82 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b28…15dfbacked Yes | 4c | 1,270$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.58 | 78 | 17.9%14 W · 64 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd6b…68f5backed Yes | 3c | 1,215$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.18 | 63 | 28.6%18 W · 45 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…bbf8backed Yes | 4c | 1,153$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c2c…dc30backed Yes | 4c | 1,042$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c16…df3abacked Yes | 3c | 927.54$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.75 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x141c…7154backed Yes | 5c | 888.78$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.44 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43c1…d728backed Yes | 2c | 816.46$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7960…f8a8backed Yes | 6c | 621.8$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.76 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3474…0571backed Yes | 7c | 599.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 200 | 34%68 W · 132 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd78…e773backed Yes | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc40a…a166backed Yes | 3c | 478.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 7c | 404.53$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.34 | 125 | 6.4%8 W · 117 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa64c…0ba9backed Yes | 5c | 307.49$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed Yes | 10c | 120$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 101 | 31.7%32 W · 69 L | -8.6wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Greens win the second most seats in the next German election?this page
- Will AfD win the second most seats in the next German election?Yes won
- Will BSW win the second most seats in the next German election?No won
- Will CDU/CSU win the second most seats in the next German election?No won
- Will SPD win the second most seats in the next German election?No won
- Will another party win the second most seats in the next German election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.