World Politics · resolved market
Will SPD win the second most seats in the next German election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4411688b128d9652bbad80a99ad722b63e47b4cabd0982f42510971744587c06
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,422,186
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $720,814
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,422,186 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 296 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x28de…a1fdbacked Yes | 4c | 56,590$2,474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,473.72 | 48 | 25%12 W · 36 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +108.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50bc…b6c6backed Yes | 1c | 51,022$601 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600.64 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d27…76d8backed Yes | 2c | 44,644$833 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$832.84 | 361 | 4.4%16 W · 345 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe8e…0045backed Yes | 3c | 40,000$1,299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,298.71 | 61 | 21.3%13 W · 48 L | +5.8wins | +0.09per pick | 12cpaid | +164.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 7c | 39,214$2,560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,559.97 | 121 | 33.1%40 W · 81 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6902…678cbacked Yes | 6c | 38,276$2,487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,487.18 | 38 | 21.1%8 W · 30 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…995abacked Yes | 7c | 33,761$2,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,200.19 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | +29.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x08b1…504bbacked Yes | 1c | 31,083$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…ef5fbacked Yes | 3c | 29,630$753 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$753.41 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54db…0174backed Yes | 1c | 29,506$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.5 | 196 | 23%45 W · 151 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x882f…322dbacked Yes | 3c | 26,516$807 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$807.37 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefbb…65e8backed Yes | 4c | 25,565$1,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,039.57 | 38 | 0%0 W · 38 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4c…532bbacked Yes | 4c | 25,002$1,065 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,065.11 | 55 | 21.8%12 W · 43 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 2c | 22,823$569 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$568.66 | 206 | 14.6%30 W · 176 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36f9…7e3bbacked Yes | 1c | 22,472$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.55 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5943…2ef2backed Yes | 1c | 21,508$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.91 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 2c | 20,166$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425.34 | 513 | 2.9%15 W · 498 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2aa…21fbbacked Yes | 7c | 18,948$1,255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,254.91 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d97…fbd8backed Yes | 1c | 17,500$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.5 | 113 | 1.8%2 W · 111 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +96.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d07…8393backed Yes | 1c | 16,342$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.61 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd398…46d7backed Yes | 1c | 15,000$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2023…2d55backed Yes | 4c | 13,640$604 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$603.77 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9dc…9026backed Yes | 8c | 13,000$1,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,050 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x562f…e46fbacked Yes | 3c | 12,940$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.51 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -43%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc891…cf27backed Yes | 2c | 12,227$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42a6…1b64backed Yes | 1c | 11,973$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.75 | 51 | 23.5%12 W · 39 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad1…5d7cbacked Yes | 2c | 11,948$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6c…eb44backed Yes | 6c | 11,531$684 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$684.41 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc42e…56b9backed Yes | 2c | 11,199$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.94 | 25 | 8%2 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea7…79acbacked Yes | 3c | 10,935$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.36 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 49cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b37…6952backed Yes | 4c | 10,222$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$447.14 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf359…3473backed Yes | 17c | 9,993$1,694 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,694.3 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf55e…0c66backed Yes | 2c | 9,733$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.82 | 38 | 2.6%1 W · 37 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -90.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1d1…1e37backed Yes | 3c | 9,306$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa289…d95cbacked Yes | 9c | 8,624$807 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$807.2 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecb9…aeaabacked Yes | 8c | 8,614$651 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$651.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa40d…ea7abacked Yes | 1c | 8,469$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.47 | 40 | 7.5%3 W · 37 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -80.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb777…6e06backed Yes | 2c | 8,452$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.78 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13e4…e01abacked Yes | 3c | 8,418$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.14 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 10cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd04e…77dfbacked Yes | 9c | 8,171$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3613…79e1backed Yes | 1c | 8,142$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.62 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.9wins | +0.21per pick | 37cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 3c | 8,081$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.27 | 232 | 25%58 W · 174 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19da…11f0backed Yes | 9c | 7,410$634 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$634.21 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 11cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81e1…7265backed Yes | 14c | 7,316$1,038 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,038.49 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +640.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc565…1263backed Yes | 6c | 6,982$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.28 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0a…72b0backed Yes | 4c | 6,962$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3371…5871backed Yes | 1c | 6,666$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.99 | 26 | 3.8%1 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -87.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d51…36b3backed Yes | 2c | 6,612$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.21 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8faf…2575backed Yes | 2c | 6,594$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.84 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f29…dd03backed Yes | 5c | 6,427$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.14 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x59a5…afc8backed Yes | 8c | 6,140$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504.8 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cec…abb3backed Yes | 1c | 5,933$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83e8…ca8fbacked Yes | 2c | 5,886$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f9c…ceaabacked Yes | 3c | 5,879$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.58 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8bc…51fdbacked Yes | 1c | 5,006$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.04 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb27…4db3backed Yes | 1c | 5,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 37 | 2.7%1 W · 36 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 11cpaid | -82%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x11a5…4032backed Yes | 1c | 4,987$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.08 | 40 | 5%2 W · 38 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | -84.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f03…1794backed Yes | 4c | 4,877$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44c0…6867backed Yes | 1c | 4,854$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.98 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39c8…6e68backed Yes | 3c | 4,813$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.79 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd0a…d7f1backed Yes | 2c | 4,454$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c16…df3abacked Yes | 10c | 4,349$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426.42 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf40f…dbe0backed Yes | 3c | 4,199$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x524e…4389backed Yes | 1c | 4,005$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.03 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…74efbacked Yes | 1c | 4,000$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…f289backed Yes | 13c | 3,836$514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$514.11 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37d2…f302backed Yes | 3c | 3,770$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.13 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f42…2af2backed Yes | 9c | 3,614$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec40…fce5backed Yes | 8c | 3,500$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8946…1b70backed Yes | 4c | 3,261$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.61 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f3…0f9cbacked Yes | 4c | 3,232$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c00…0332backed Yes | 4c | 3,199$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.65 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf43a…cafcbacked Yes | 1c | 3,081$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.91 | 44 | 9.1%4 W · 40 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -35%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cd…996bbacked Yes | 3c | 3,032$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5c5…f6f4backed Yes | 3c | 3,000$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b08…daf0backed Yes | 8c | 2,979$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.1 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -63%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd0…bc3dbacked Yes | 2c | 2,824$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.95 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes | 10c | 2,655$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.16 | 302 | 33.8%102 W · 200 L | +19.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff66…5ec5backed Yes | 9c | 2,369$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.55 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdce6…1a06backed Yes | 2c | 2,273$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8109…c7bcbacked Yes | 11c | 2,254$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.44 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 6c | 2,247$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.82 | 152 | 37.5%57 W · 95 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2524…905abacked Yes | 7c | 2,187$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7931…020abacked Yes | 3c | 2,159$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.45 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc324…ace5backed Yes | 5c | 2,147$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3338…7624backed Yes | 32c | 2,111$667 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$667 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0549…5c0cbacked Yes | 1c | 2,093$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.57 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.39per pick | 11cpaid | +182%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc44a…a403backed Yes | 10c | 2,053$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4baf…5fdfbacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7347…b96fbacked Yes | 3c | 1,982$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cf1…7fc8backed Yes | 4c | 1,895$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c58…e62bbacked Yes | 16c | 1,876$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde00…3b9abacked Yes | 4c | 1,866$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a81…a654backed Yes | 18c | 1,688$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…e414backed Yes | 3c | 1,683$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.44 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa76b…97f1backed Yes | 12c | 1,660$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.6 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -33%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 32c | 1,612$522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$522.09 | 102 | 33.3%34 W · 68 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd4b…e477backed Yes | 10c | 1,546$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46ef…4132backed Yes | 3c | 1,486$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e7…fc15backed Yes | 10c | 1,480$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.6 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SPD win the second most seats in the next German election?this page
- Will AfD win the second most seats in the next German election?Yes won
- Will BSW win the second most seats in the next German election?No won
- Will CDU/CSU win the second most seats in the next German election?No won
- Will another party win the second most seats in the next German election?No won
- Will the Greens win the second most seats in the next German election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.