World Politics · resolved market
Will BSW win the second most seats in the next German election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x557da4819e732f2d2d4a7fb469bca4bd8be40b2a9782b5e2c8ae2a4c17a0bf72
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,068,149
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,462,921
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,068,149 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 107 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2d27…76d8backed Yes | 0c | 286,831$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498 | 361 | 4.4%16 W · 345 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b9b…dfcdbacked Yes | 0c | 109,005$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.02 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9739…159fbacked Yes | 0c | 104,000$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefbb…65e8backed Yes | 0c | 100,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 38 | 0%0 W · 38 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe393…6edbbacked Yes | 0c | 99,260$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9e4…4cecbacked Yes | 0c | 98,360$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x884e…0cb3backed Yes | 0c | 98,350$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x740b…e315backed Yes | 0c | 97,820$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97c4…1eb0backed Yes | 0c | 97,760$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x983b…7223backed Yes | 0c | 97,290$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92d5…01b2backed Yes | 0c | 96,730$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xace5…e80fbacked Yes | 0c | 96,260$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd682…fd63backed Yes | 0c | 95,950$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec92…5311backed Yes | 0c | 95,850$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51f3…1478backed Yes | 0c | 95,420$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 0c | 57,000$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 513 | 2.9%15 W · 498 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2bd…ce05backed Yes | 0c | 55,000$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe406…3b48backed Yes | 0c | 54,060$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdea…102ebacked Yes | 0c | 53,390$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70f9…812ebacked Yes | 0c | 53,270$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf085…e463backed Yes | 0c | 53,250$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69c6…b958backed Yes | 0c | 52,970$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74f5…3df7backed Yes | 0c | 52,880$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a4b…9a7fbacked Yes | 0c | 52,820$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7f…5edcbacked Yes | 0c | 52,710$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e7b…416bbacked Yes | 0c | 52,710$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x000e…dc1cbacked Yes | 0c | 52,630$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c7c…2ab0backed Yes | 0c | 52,600$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fd0…7527backed Yes | 0c | 52,480$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34a5…9a0abacked Yes | 0c | 52,480$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf45…fb75backed Yes | 0c | 52,360$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb38…98d4backed Yes | 0c | 52,200$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64a4…3ca8backed Yes | 0c | 52,140$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40ac…6befbacked Yes | 0c | 51,970$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7863…e972backed Yes | 0c | 51,870$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ad…5ad9backed Yes | 0c | 51,820$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e2d…8281backed Yes | 0c | 51,670$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x433a…02c1backed Yes | 0c | 51,630$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf5f…5a51backed Yes | 0c | 51,570$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e57…a63abacked Yes | 0c | 51,290$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf7f…0573backed Yes | 0c | 51,290$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2740…3ff1backed Yes | 0c | 51,280$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc15b…db8dbacked Yes | 0c | 51,280$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1f…3328backed Yes | 0c | 51,250$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddd1…0cb6backed Yes | 0c | 51,250$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb13…a3dbbacked Yes | 0c | 51,230$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa537…1e1cbacked Yes | 0c | 51,210$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac3…67c0backed Yes | 0c | 51,200$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22a5…f763backed Yes | 0c | 51,100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc967…e9a0backed Yes | 0c | 50,990$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81ca…8e11backed Yes | 0c | 50,950$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x405b…bb56backed Yes | 0c | 50,910$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.91 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40ee…a4efbacked Yes | 0c | 50,850$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e1d…acd3backed Yes | 0c | 50,850$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21dc…15d1backed Yes | 0c | 50,850$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd999…d43abacked Yes | 0c | 50,730$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe716…afb3backed Yes | 0c | 50,710$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.71 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf986…0b0bbacked Yes | 0c | 50,670$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc336…86e4backed Yes | 0c | 50,630$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e26…89e1backed Yes | 0c | 50,630$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2d7…fff6backed Yes | 0c | 50,590$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c39…a623backed Yes | 0c | 50,590$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c7f…62dcbacked Yes | 0c | 50,500$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb15…4f82backed Yes | 0c | 50,460$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cd9…0649backed Yes | 0c | 50,450$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc0d…b77bbacked Yes | 0c | 50,420$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf532…99ddbacked Yes | 0c | 50,350$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe553…1f85backed Yes | 0c | 50,340$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8746…d253backed Yes | 0c | 50,280$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc9…3066backed Yes | 0c | 50,210$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4362…db5bbacked Yes | 0c | 50,190$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe20f…5134backed Yes | 0c | 50,080$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a77…1514backed Yes | 0c | 50,070$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e527backed Yes | 0c | 50,070$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa061…b2d8backed Yes | 0c | 50,050$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xece8…e780backed Yes | 0c | 48,990$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95dd…be92backed Yes | 0c | 48,970$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x987d…97c0backed Yes | 0c | 48,870$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad07…5da6backed Yes | 0c | 48,790$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa808…baaabacked Yes | 0c | 48,310$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7202…2df7backed Yes | 0c | 48,030$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5721…d8e7backed Yes | 0c | 47,590$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e7b…fe9cbacked Yes | 0c | 47,130$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cc3…e030backed Yes | 0c | 47,110$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…fc82backed Yes | 0c | 47,020$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55b4…80eabacked Yes | 0c | 46,908$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.02 | 100 | 14%14 W · 86 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3821…afd3backed Yes | 0c | 46,750$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d35…1620backed Yes | 0c | 46,630$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc8e…ecbdbacked Yes | 0c | 46,020$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda64…e806backed Yes | 0c | 45,370$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a0…993cbacked Yes | 0c | 45,010$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d97…fbd8backed Yes | 0c | 41,000$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 113 | 1.8%2 W · 111 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +96.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e24…caf6backed Yes | 0c | 33,333$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 31,864$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.27 | 452 | 1.1%5 W · 447 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 0cpaid | +156.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d7…1935backed Yes | 0c | 30,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe96a…fae0backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24b8…5471backed Yes | 0c | 17,000$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9db…5bebbacked Yes | 0c | 16,000$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1857…c0cebacked Yes | 0c | 14,091$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.84 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a47…5a94backed Yes | 0c | 13,950$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will BSW win the second most seats in the next German election?this page
- Will AfD win the second most seats in the next German election?Yes won
- Will CDU/CSU win the second most seats in the next German election?No won
- Will SPD win the second most seats in the next German election?No won
- Will another party win the second most seats in the next German election?No won
- Will the Greens win the second most seats in the next German election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.