World Politics · resolved market
Will another party win the second most seats in the next German election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf1add3bfd3810102a76d4bf68ca09ab7a2c82dc299caef3f88ce4818d5668b8e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,551,038
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $849,279
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,551,038 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2d27…76d8backed Yes | 0c | 251,985$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427.32 | 361 | 4.4%16 W · 345 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfe…b3ddbacked Yes | 0c | 120,608$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.61 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +3.0wins | +0.21per pick | 43cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x08b1…504bbacked Yes | 0c | 116,431$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefbb…65e8backed Yes | 0c | 100,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 38 | 0%0 W · 38 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d97…fbd8backed Yes | 0c | 76,550$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.7 | 113 | 1.8%2 W · 111 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +96.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9739…159fbacked Yes | 0c | 60,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 0c | 59,763$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.76 | 513 | 2.9%15 W · 498 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d7…1935backed Yes | 0c | 40,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1857…c0cebacked Yes | 0c | 36,832$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.83 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37be…9135backed Yes | 0c | 28,868$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0282…f509backed Yes | 0c | 28,852$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bfc…ce80backed Yes | 0c | 28,581$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ff2…79cbbacked Yes | 0c | 28,530$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68b9…6d9cbacked Yes | 0c | 28,453$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2eda…15ccbacked Yes | 0c | 28,338$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d3c…7fe7backed Yes | 0c | 28,016$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd843…c8cabacked Yes | 0c | 27,965$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2e…835cbacked Yes | 0c | 27,529$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8a2…5e5bbacked Yes | 0c | 27,474$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe26b…870dbacked Yes | 0c | 27,448$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b33…5992backed Yes | 0c | 27,435$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc144…1621backed Yes | 0c | 27,305$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd110…a7fabacked Yes | 0c | 27,205$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa345…dc68backed Yes | 0c | 27,200$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab9c…45d6backed Yes | 0c | 26,656$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e48…b8dbbacked Yes | 0c | 26,617$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89df…6632backed Yes | 0c | 26,442$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92b2…f13bbacked Yes | 0c | 26,050$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f751backed Yes | 0c | 25,950$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f95…393dbacked Yes | 0c | 25,925$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…88e8backed Yes | 0c | 25,830$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14ac…0efdbacked Yes | 0c | 25,456$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb568…623ebacked Yes | 0c | 25,073$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84fe…183bbacked Yes | 0c | 25,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6946…4a5bbacked Yes | 0c | 24,980$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 18,131$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.03 | 452 | 1.1%5 W · 447 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 0cpaid | +156.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d81…be28backed Yes | 0c | 17,000$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55b4…80eabacked Yes | 0c | 15,730$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.19 | 100 | 14%14 W · 86 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe2…4954backed Yes | 0c | 15,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4853…0365backed Yes | 0c | 14,330$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…ef5fbacked Yes | 0c | 12,000$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d07…8393backed Yes | 0c | 11,693$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c4…c5abbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 35 | 2.9%1 W · 34 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -87.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed Yes | 0c | 9,768$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 90 | 37.8%34 W · 56 L | +6.5wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb2bd…ce05backed Yes | 0c | 8,500$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf40f…dbe0backed Yes | 0c | 8,290$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will another party win the second most seats in the next German election?this page
- Will AfD win the second most seats in the next German election?Yes won
- Will BSW win the second most seats in the next German election?No won
- Will CDU/CSU win the second most seats in the next German election?No won
- Will SPD win the second most seats in the next German election?No won
- Will the Greens win the second most seats in the next German election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.