World Politics · resolved market
Will AfD win the second most seats in the next German election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb7faecd2db357e4634fe87ef9bb48b4e1305cd618276d730b73190662fe6bafd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,510,074
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,690,427
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,510,074 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 598 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2d27…76d8backed No | 7c | 158,743$11,538 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,538.48 | 361 | 4.4%16 W · 345 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70c7…a3dfbacked No | 10c | 20,099$2,064 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,064.05 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e10…9b8bbacked No | 10c | 20,031$2,017 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,016.77 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5975…6820backed Yes | 77c | 18,787$14,466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,321.03 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 20c | 12,767$2,584 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,583.83 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2023…2d55backed No | 11c | 10,741$1,203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,203.37 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf359…3473backed No | 23c | 10,528$2,422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,421.51 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc288…edb1backed No | 1c | 10,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc30a…353bbacked Yes | 74c | 10,000$7,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,599.95 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x524e…4389backed No | 4c | 9,000$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x534b…b321backed Yes | 76c | 7,300$5,568 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,731.99 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.31per pick | 52cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x66de…9f40backed Yes | 77c | 6,104$4,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,404.02 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c16…df3abacked No | 8c | 5,999$463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462.73 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1eb3…92e2backed Yes | 76c | 4,889$3,698 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,190.45 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa05c…b818backed Yes | 76c | 4,604$3,482 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,121.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x882f…322dbacked No | 12c | 4,213$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.48 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…c97cbacked Yes | 57c | 4,171$2,383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,788.18 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5991…218dbacked No | 26c | 3,955$1,028 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,028.4 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 5c | 3,724$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.68 | 206 | 14.6%30 W · 176 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ae…82bdbacked No | 6c | 3,334$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.03 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 12cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea79…a9ccbacked Yes | 77c | 3,153$2,424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$729.43 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2997…ee2bbacked Yes | 69c | 2,911$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$911.39 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42a6…1b64backed No | 3c | 2,660$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.05 | 51 | 23.5%12 W · 39 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c07…1599backed No | 17c | 2,336$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11f0…e3bdbacked No | 23c | 2,200$506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$506 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81e1…7265backed No | 23c | 1,945$438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$437.91 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +640.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ce…db56backed Yes | 77c | 1,940$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$439.67 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8967…1e9bbacked No | 37c | 1,813$672 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$671.63 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 13c | 1,797$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.36 | 152 | 37.5%57 W · 95 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99f9…93c4backed No | 6c | 1,667$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 79c | 1,522$1,203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.83 | 88 | 38.6%34 W · 54 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa8…d94fbacked Yes | 68c | 1,461$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x111f…af00backed Yes | 78c | 1,327$1,042 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.47 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46d2…145dbacked No | 12c | 1,327$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd2…9448backed Yes | 79c | 1,313$1,044 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.59 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98fc…9e7abacked Yes | 78c | 1,134$884 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed No | 12c | 1,127$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.56 | 121 | 33.1%40 W · 81 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d66…fa8bbacked Yes | 76c | 1,100$833 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.58 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14dd…13eebacked No | 3c | 1,038$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x001c…5ab8backed No | 17c | 999.99$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe822…8ad9backed Yes | 62c | 999.99$620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f3…0f9cbacked No | 9c | 999.94$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe403…e5a4backed Yes | 76c | 999$759 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.76 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11a5…4032backed No | 7c | 983.58$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.09 | 40 | 5%2 W · 38 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | -84.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc9…b8a8backed Yes | 60c | 916.65$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.67 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a87…4e00backed Yes | 75c | 894.29$671 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.57 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd76…93e3backed No | 12c | 840.21$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.82 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066a…550dbacked Yes | 68c | 757.83$515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.66 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99f5…af66backed Yes | 59c | 755.2$446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7960…f8a8backed No | 31c | 743.11$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.59 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed No | 34c | 734.06$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.58 | 97 | 21.6%21 W · 76 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Yes | 77c | 700$539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54e7…e35fbacked Yes | 78c | 699.52$548 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.1 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…744bbacked Yes | 61c | 655.74$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.74 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…77c7backed No | 24c | 616$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.42 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3f0…cf6dbacked Yes | 76c | 600$456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0964…d727backed Yes | 75c | 599.99$453 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3474…0571backed No | 29c | 599.98$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173 | 200 | 34%68 W · 132 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8109…c7bcbacked No | 31c | 599.96$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 80c | 596.36$477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.27 | 278 | 28.1%78 W · 200 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4145…fc24backed Yes | 78c | 574.07$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.07 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -4.1wins | -0.17per pick | 59cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x93b4…cbfdbacked No | 15c | 557.2$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.99 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe32…8a0abacked No | 9c | 555.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93ca…d65ebacked Yes | 77c | 519.09$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.09 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d37…a680backed Yes | 79c | 506.33$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.33 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Yes | 56c | 503.94$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.39 | 79 | 44.3%35 W · 44 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea28…3a0bbacked No | 9c | 500$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.45 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb27…4db3backed No | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 37 | 2.7%1 W · 36 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 11cpaid | -82%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7024…4c4cbacked No | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 34 | 0%0 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0665…4c8fbacked No | 12c | 499.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafad…2dfdbacked No | 11c | 454.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x477a…2d8ebacked No | 17c | 453.16$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.04 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a16…496fbacked Yes | 76c | 453.12$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed No | 17c | 449.96$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.22 | 347 | 26.8%93 W · 254 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 17c | 422.9$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.74 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed No | 21c | 422.01$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.28 | 90 | 37.8%34 W · 56 L | +6.5wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2104…a495backed No | 12c | 421.75$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.61 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbba4…f8c6backed No | 12c | 419.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.7wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcd…cbfbbacked No | 23c | 417.39$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ee…a4a0backed Yes | 77c | 406.94$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…83f5backed No | 21c | 400.99$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.09 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc4…c0ddbacked No | 25c | 400$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d85…8393backed No | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a2…1dc5backed No | 8c | 400$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb99a…a00fbacked Yes | 78c | 400$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc909…636ebacked Yes | 63c | 392$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.12 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c47…e795backed Yes | 78c | 372.99$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2620…0e09backed Yes | 79c | 354.88$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b87…4486backed Yes | 78c | 353.85$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.85 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 74cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90e4…91d6backed Yes | 63c | 345.03$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.66 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91e1…1282backed Yes | 75c | 340$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -3.9wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb5…20ecbacked No | 22c | 339.36$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa27e…827dbacked Yes | 76c | 337.41$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.91 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 74cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c6…42fcbacked Yes | 77c | 336.46$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.56 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…d170backed Yes | 60c | 333.33$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.33 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3eb…0829backed Yes | 76c | 327.13$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.51 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0d7…9207backed Yes | 78c | 321.75$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.75 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…54d8backed Yes | 61c | 320.93$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.16 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 50cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8a7…9f3cbacked Yes | 76c | 315.75$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.78 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55e7…93f7backed No | 16c | 315$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will AfD win the second most seats in the next German election?this page
- Will BSW win the second most seats in the next German election?No won
- Will CDU/CSU win the second most seats in the next German election?No won
- Will SPD win the second most seats in the next German election?No won
- Will another party win the second most seats in the next German election?No won
- Will the Greens win the second most seats in the next German election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.