Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with China in July?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x41970bc27edc1f581d25697e51804275c72ea2dd8f8f3cef110a7762ad607776
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $398,944
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $405,084
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $398,944 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 348 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3e53…ba80backed Yes | 16c | 16,008$2,491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,491.48 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -68.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe281…e7bfbacked Yes | 15c | 12,975$1,893 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,892.57 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc99…e0a3backed Yes | 63c | 10,307$6,516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,515.87 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20f9…4cdbbacked Yes | 20c | 8,812$1,739 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,739.18 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 1c | 8,200$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.12 | 187 | 25.1%47 W · 140 L | +10.5wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x088f…c9e7backed Yes | 73c | 7,452$5,447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,446.66 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc254…3f73backed No | 78c | 7,175$5,599 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,576.33 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 0c | 6,618$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.05 | 398 | 9.5%38 W · 360 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…f845backed Yes | 32c | 6,219$2,010 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,010.48 | 219 | 35.2%77 W · 142 L | +8.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x761d…0687backed Yes | 29c | 4,910$1,404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,403.89 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed No | 65c | 4,392$2,868 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,523.92 | 74 | 58.1%43 W · 31 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fdb…6919backed No | 57c | 3,979$2,269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,710.27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeae7…1884backed Yes | 50c | 3,746$1,888 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,887.96 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2473…859dbacked No | 76c | 3,493$2,666 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$827.14 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +67.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fa…16cbbacked No | 71c | 3,478$2,467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,010.71 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed Yes | 31c | 3,286$1,010 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,009.63 | 119 | 36.1%43 W · 76 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e37…1e69backed No | 64c | 3,099$1,997 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,101.46 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +65.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf52f…c3f1backed Yes | 61c | 3,091$1,875 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,874.61 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…b243backed Yes | 12c | 3,060$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.94 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +5.4wins | +0.15per pick | 38cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1c…1cedbacked No | 48c | 2,920$1,394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,525.46 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ce…d9dfbacked Yes | 35c | 2,750$975 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$975 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06ca…1d4bbacked No | 27c | 2,703$726 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,977 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x870a…bd43backed Yes | 34c | 2,492$846 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$845.72 | 84 | 33.3%28 W · 56 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7604…32cbbacked Yes | 44c | 2,451$1,079 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,079.05 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb61…58ffbacked Yes | 28c | 2,306$649 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$649.26 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0113…6f26backed Yes | 36c | 2,199$794 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$794.4 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…fa3fbacked Yes | 32c | 1,998$644 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$644.18 | 131 | 45.8%60 W · 71 L | +8.0wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x42f6…4ad9backed No | 64c | 1,974$1,272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$702.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd069…e72ebacked Yes | 41c | 1,938$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800.43 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91da…0a39backed Yes | 18c | 1,864$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.69 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x429d…39a7backed Yes | 10c | 1,849$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.02 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64eb…364abacked Yes | 53c | 1,807$950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$950 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7842…4d91backed No | 39c | 1,791$697 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,093.65 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9019…42e0backed No | 74c | 1,739$1,282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$457.42 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x58f4…12a9backed No | 57c | 1,735$995 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$739.41 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8453…778dbacked No | 74c | 1,693$1,249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.48 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 63cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 17c | 1,669$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89df…c5ddbacked No | 79c | 1,659$1,314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.02 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61c7…82cebacked Yes | 35c | 1,657$579 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$578.61 | 64 | 23.4%15 W · 49 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -42%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc639…c5a2backed No | 47c | 1,647$768 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$878.32 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7214…433bbacked No | 77c | 1,628$1,258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.41 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -3.8wins | -0.23per pick | 55cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed No | 57c | 1,571$889 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$682.22 | 139 | 43.2%60 W · 79 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 11c | 1,521$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.38 | 333 | 13.2%44 W · 289 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 24c | 1,491$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.59 | 39 | 15.4%6 W · 33 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x96da…68b6backed Yes | 18c | 1,436$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.53 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 24cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x81de…6f1fbacked Yes | 49c | 1,433$701 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700.71 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54f0…8a13backed No | 43c | 1,417$610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$806.84 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.17per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e27…4e9ebacked Yes | 70c | 1,387$969 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$969.48 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…6eebbacked Yes | 15c | 1,309$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.22 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -29%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 30c | 1,301$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.63 | 326 | 26.4%86 W · 240 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc82e…9460backed Yes | 13c | 1,295$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.75 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -4.3wins | -0.21per pick | 40cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe65f…a749backed Yes | 13c | 1,224$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.82 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -19%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…e515backed Yes | 38c | 1,212$463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462.77 | 216 | 34.3%74 W · 142 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d4a…6cb1backed Yes | 48c | 1,205$584 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$583.5 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.8wins | -0.17per pick | 58cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7efb…547ebacked No | 71c | 1,197$848 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.95 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -53%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81e1…7265backed Yes | 10c | 1,166$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.32 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eea…281dbacked No | 16c | 1,149$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960.24 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x355f…0df8backed Yes | 54c | 1,148$616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$616.08 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4881…39e0backed No | 40c | 1,144$457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$687.19 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +37%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd94…b271backed Yes | 9c | 1,078$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x943f…43a7backed Yes | 9c | 1,072$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 38cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 32c | 1,046$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$712.51 | 210 | 22.4%47 W · 163 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f7…9769backed Yes | 14c | 1,032$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.78 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x656e…65d2backed Yes | 60c | 1,015$610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$610.24 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -3.4wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa1af…d889backed No | 12c | 1,000$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$879 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | +3.5wins | +0.11per pick | 15cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8643…cb9bbacked No | 59c | 1,000$592 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.91 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 52cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc417…3ca6backed Yes | 15c | 1,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 32 | 18.8%6 W · 26 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75b1…e2e8backed No | 45c | 978.28$436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$541.8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 63cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4256…b85ebacked No | 68c | 967.35$658 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd8…01f0backed Yes | 59c | 916.75$541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$541.19 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e9…c21ebacked No | 51c | 909.58$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$441.85 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x267c…9b16backed Yes | 34c | 903.92$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.5 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02a1…dd72backed No | 19c | 895$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$722.61 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x388f…4083backed Yes | 42c | 891.04$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.68 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x516d…03e5backed No | 44c | 842$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470.22 | 152 | 38.8%59 W · 93 L | -13.5wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x389c…99d1backed No | 59c | 840.58$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.58 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 30cpaid | -79%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc4a…104fbacked No | 69c | 820.27$565 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.27 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 18c | 814.93$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.17 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 38c | 814.75$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.74 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcbc7…8f89backed No | 60c | 805.96$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.36 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes | 27c | 799.99$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.5 | 125 | 45.6%57 W · 68 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a57…f7ddbacked Yes | 41c | 795.44$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.68 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba4…8a89backed Yes | 9c | 793.29$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.22 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b9b…0054backed Yes | 28c | 783.87$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.1 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecd…0787backed No | 43c | 777.71$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$442.16 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +4.5wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed No | 48c | 776.51$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.86 | 151 | 55%83 W · 68 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed No | 50c | 744.01$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.97 | 136 | 73.5%100 W · 36 L | +28.4wins | +0.21per pick | 53cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Yes | 15c | 740$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.96 | 64 | 31.3%20 W · 44 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1b…75d8backed Yes | 55c | 710.2$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.51 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14c3…df68backed Yes | 6c | 704.39$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.53 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56f0…1c37backed Yes | 13c | 699.99$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.5 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e1…f770backed No | 53c | 650.42$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.42 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +75%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked No | 29c | 649.04$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$458.3 | 194 | 35.1%68 W · 126 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0db7…c901backed No | 68c | 645.91$441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.14 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 22c | 614.73$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.5 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0e1…6fd8backed Yes | 53c | 608.67$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.54 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x419d…7817backed No | 36c | 600$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.4 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.18per pick | 39cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a53…7a6fbacked Yes | 32c | 583.85$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.13 | 68 | 38.2%26 W · 42 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8a5…c41bbacked Yes | 17c | 572.01$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…9ef1backed Yes | 11c | 555.4$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.49 | 141 | 35.5%50 W · 91 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with China in July?this page
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Argentina in July?No won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Australia in July?No won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Brazil in July?No won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Canada in July?No won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with European Union in July?Yes won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with France in July?No won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Germany in July?No won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with India in July?No won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Israel in July?No won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Japan in July?Yes won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Mexico in July?Yes won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with South Korea in July?Yes won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Vietnam in July?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.